Tag: Weatherbomb

New Brunswick

Texas Low: Severe Outbreak Precedes Potent Storm for Eastern…

A significant trough crossing the Guadelupe Mountains will drive the development of a potent area of low-pressure across Texas Saturday. Favorable conditions for the development of severe thunderstorms, will exist along the warm front axis; ahead of a vigorous cold front. This will be significant “severe weather event” for Northern Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, Western Mississippi, and Eastern Texas. Reloading for a second day of severe weather, across the Eastern United States.

Moisture laden low developing in Texas bringing severe thunderstorms. With impacts across Eastern Canada to end the week. Persisting into early next week.

During the day Sunday, the low is forecast to take a northeast hook towards the lower Great Lakes bringing a plume of rain and snow for Southern/Central Ontario & Southern Quebec.

Atlantic Canada is poised to see the most tempestuous conditions, with rapid deepening of the low-pressure center late Monday. This system will be a heavy-rain story for the Maritimes. On the contrary, Newfoundland could see heavy snow, significant freezing rain and strong winds.

COOL, WET & LOUSY COUPLE DAYS FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Get out and enjoy the abundant sunshine and warm temperatures Saturday. A messy, moisture-laden system out of Texas will deliver below seasonal temperatures, a soaking rainfall, mixed precipitation and accumulating wet snow. The heaviest rainfall will be situated along the Lake Ontario shoreline into the Niagara Region. The heaviest of the snowfall will be seen across parts of Central Ontario – through cottage country.

A lousy system for the Great Lakes. Below seasonal temperatures, a soaking rainfall and more snow expected.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL & GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MARITIMES

Significant rainfall will encompass much of Nova Scotia, the Bay of Fundy region in New Brunswick & Prince Edward Island. There is still considerable uncertainty how this low will develop in the Maritimes. Current projections have most of the precipitation falling as rainfall. As much as, 40-75mm of rain is possible, between Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

Click to navigate a larger image of the map.

POTENTIAL ‘WEATHERBOMB’ FOR NEWFOUNDLAND

The system is expected to undergo rapid deepening Monday night. Slowing as it transverses through Gulf of St. Lawrence. A strengthening wind field along the Northwestern coast, persists all-day Tuesday. Refinements to the forecast will come throughout the coming days. Nevertheless, this is looking like a potent system for Newfoundland.

We are becoming increasingly concerned regarding a freezing rain threat for the north coast of Newfoundland. Including Fogo Island, Bonavista North & Green Bay. 10-15mm+ of freezing rain, ending as snow and strong winds could bring localized power outages.

Heavy snowfall will be the story across Northwestern Newfoundland with as much as 20-40cm falling over the hardest hit areas. Concurrent, with strong winds leading to blowing and drifting snow.

New Brunswick

Bomb Cyclone Threatens Damaging Windstorm, Snow & Heavy Rain…

A weatherbomb is rapidly strengthening Tuesday off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Bringing hurricane-force winds, significant rain & lighting just off-shore. This system will undergo bombogenesis as it tracks up the Eastern Seaboard, through the Gulf of St. Lawrence into Labrador. 

Significant rainfall & snowfall accompanied by damaging winds gusting over 100km/h is anticipated. The most tempestuous conditions being felt across the Maritimes Wednesday afternoon & evening. For Newfoundland & Labrador conditions deteriorate rapidly overnight Wednesday. Persisting through most of the day Thursday.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT

Damaging winds will be the main story with this powerful storm. Atmospheric pressure is expected to drop 28mb within 24 hours. An expansive – strengthening wind field will result. Hurricane-force winds (gusts over 120km/h) expected along the Western coast of Newfoundland & Cape Breton Island.

Les Suetes winds gusting up 160 km/h are forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon, shifting southwesterly before dissipating. Wreckhouse winds could peak between 160-180km/h.

Click to navigate the wind impact map.

SIGNIFICANT WIND DRIVEN RAINFALL FOR COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA

Environment Canada has issued a Rainfall warning across Nova Scotia. The agency is warning up to 70mm of rain could fall, in the hardest hit regions along coastal Nova Scotia.

Rain at times heavy will develop early Wednesday morning over southwestern Nova Scotia and quickly spread to the remainder of the province by Wednesday afternoon. The rain will be mixed with snow to start over parts of mainland Nova Scotia Wednesday morning. Over Cape Breton, the rain will likely be preceded by a period of snow over some areas.

Rainfall amounts will be highest over Atlantic coastal regions of mainland Nova Scotia where 50 to 70 millimetres are forecast. Elsewhere, 25 to 40 millimetres of rain is expected.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

SNOWFALL ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK & BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS LABRADOR

Environment Canada has issued several warning across New Brunswick. This is what they wrote in their statement. Snow will begin Wednesday morning over southwestern New Brunswick and then spread quickly across the province by noon. The snow will likely mix with rain in the afternoon. Snowfall amounts of up to 10 cm are possible. Over eastern regions of the province, snowfall amounts in excess of 15 cm are likely and snowfall warnings are in effect there. Along the Fundy coast, rainfall amounts near 25 mm are possible and rainfall warnings are in effect there. Northwestern New Brunswick will only receive light amounts of precipitation from this system.

Western Newfoundland will have to contend with sea-effect snow and blizzard-like conditions through the day Thursday. 5-15cm of accumulation is expected by Thursday evening. Heavy flurries and snowsqualls may continue Thursday overnight and Friday.

This will be a major winter storm for Labrador. Who has been no stranger to significant storms this season. Winter refuses to relinquish its icy grip. 25-40cm of fresh snow concurrent with 90km/h+ winds & blizzard conditions.

New Brunswick

Strongest Low in Decades Zeros in on the Great…

Our forecasting team is vigilantly monitoring a powerful low-pressure system expected to form North of the Texas Panhandle late this evening. The upper-level disturbance originating out of California, will coincide with a favorable setup for an explosive storm development. Read more about Panhandle Hooks’ here.

Did you know? It was an infamous Panhandle Hook which sank the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975.

This storm will feature strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and shifting ice-conditions across the Great Lakes. Almost everyone in Eastern Canada will feel the effects of this powerful storm. Read more to gain insight on how this storm may impact you.

BLOCKBUSTER BLIZZARD EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR

Our forecast team is closely monitoring a soon-to-be rapidly strengthening Panhandle Hook, sagging into the Texas Panhandle. Gathering abundant gulf moisture before trekking towards the Upper Great Lakes. The storm will experience the most intensification while tracking Northeastwards through the Upper Midwest (United States), towards Lake Superior & Northern Ontario. Coinciding with an expanding strong to damaging wind field.

Confidence is considerable for a high-impact Low for regions N and NE of Lake Superior with likely 30cm or more of blowing snow contingent with 60km/h+ wind gusts. The heaviest snowfall will likely be 30-40km inland from the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. This is bad news (or good new depending on your prerogative), when considering how much snow has already fallen across this region. Some are running out of places to even put the snow.

The fiercest winds will not correspond with the heaviest snowfall rates. Still, inland locales such as Timmins & Kapuskasing will still have to contend with extensive blowing & drifting snow. Especially, once the low tracks into Quebec, with colder air and stronger gusts arriving on the backside of the low.

There will be a line of mixing of wintry precipitation likely from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury to the QC border. Including a brief period of ice pellets and rain-showers.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Temperatures will begin to surge above freezing across Southwestern Ontario, as early as, late Saturday evening. Double-digit temperatures & strong Southwesterly winds will advance throughout the Southern half of the Province throughout the morning & afternoon. Rain-showers and even a risk of elevated thunderstorms is expected. Proceeded by, a sharp cold front & plummeting temperatures.

We anticipate extensive blowing snow and poor-visibility East of Lake Huron late Sunday evening through Monday. Avoid all unnecessary travel in the red highlighted area on our wind impact map.

The supportive track and strength of the low will herald in a significant damaging wind threat across Southern Ontario. The strongest winds could peak as high as hurricane force (120km/h), along the Northeast shore of Lake Erie. We anticipate wind gusts over 100km/h across Prince Edward County, and East of Lake Huron. Peak wind gusts will likely reach or exceed 90km/h across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Projected Peak Wind Gusts through Late Sunday. We kept these projections conservative until the storm developes..

The sudden onset of warm air, rainfall, and extreme wind gusts will bring treacherous ice conditions across the Great Lakes. Ice shoves may be damaging to infrastructure along exposed shorelines. If you participate in winter activities such as, ice fishing or snowmobiling, it would be a good idea to remove your ice hut from the Great Lakes. Avoid snowmobiling until ice conditions improve.

A NEW COASTAL LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE MARITIMES

The powerful storm sweeps through Quebec on Sunday, and will subsequently phase into a strong ‘weather bomb’ south of Yarmouth. Potentially, deepening below 970mb (967-969mb).

While the exact phasing & extend of warm air advection is not entirely set-in-stone, it appears the heaviest swaths of snowfall will likely be off the Gaspe Peninsula shoreline and into the North Atlantic, thereby mitigating what could have been 2 or more feet of snow.

Southern New Brunswick will likely experience a rain/snow/wintry mix. With amounts totaling near 10cm. Amounts increasing to 20-30cm across the Northern extent of the Province. Pockets of heavier enhancement, accompanied by similar conditions is expected across Extreme Southern Newfoundland

Timing
Western New Brunswick – Late Afternoon Sunday
Most of New Brunswick – Sunday Evening
Nova Scotia – Sunday Mid Evening
PEI – Sunday Overnight
Newfoundland – Monday

Hardest Hit
Gaspe (35-45cm)
Bathurst (25-35cm)
Edmundston (30-35cm)
Campbellton (30-35cm)
Extreme Southern Shoreline of Newfoundland (25-40cm)

DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC

A major blizzard is on-tap for much of Northern Quebec. The worst of the treacherous conditions will be felt across the mouth of the Rupert River, Southeast of James Bay. Where rural communities can expect winds over 90km/h combined with 15-25cm of freshly fallen snow. Extensive blowing/drifting snow & near-zero visibility is expected. Isolated communities across Central & Northern Quebec may become cut-off, briefly.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Powerful Storm to Develop Across Newfoundland & Labrador Tuesday

A seasonably-deep low pressure system will develop rapidly Tuesday; impacting Newfoundland & Labrador.

The central pressure is forecast to deepen an incredible 22mb in 24 hours, almost reaching the criteria to be considered a “weatherbomb”.
#NLwx

Far, and largely unpopulated, Northeastern Labrador will see snow mix-in. Accumulating snow is possible in Greenland.

Expect pounding surf of 3-5m and beach erosion in Labrador. As well as, heavy rainfall and strong winds. Strongest winds to 90km/h will remain well off the coast.

Projected Wave Heights

NEWFOUNDLAND:

Western sections will see locally-heavy rainfall with this system. The biggest weather story is focused on a sudden change in weather pattern.

Warm & humid conditions dominating the Province will end, at least temporarily, with the passage of a cold front.

A cooler much-drier airmass will move across the province West to East throughout Tuesday.