Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the lower half of Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec today (July 2nd, 2018).
A weak cold front will slowly track across Southern ON/SQUE today acting as a trigger for thunderstorms. The frontal passage is not expected to offer much relief from the heat, but will lower humidity to more comfortable levels tonight and Tuesday.
The primary risk with these thunderstorms will be torrential rainfall. Due to slow movement of the frontal passage some thunderstorms may “train” or, regenerate over the same region bringing locally 30-50mm in a short period of time. Additionally, isolated damaging winds are possible – primarily in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Quebec where the greatest risk for severe exists. Small hail between pea and dime size is possible in the more robust updrafts across the entire isolated severe risk zone.
The timing for storm development today, will be between 11am-6pm. We have highlighted localized municipalities – stretching from the Golden Horseshoe into Eastern Ontario in a isolated severe threat.
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Rain and thunderstorms expected early Tuesday (May 15, 2018) in Southern Ontario.
A complex of rain and thunderstorms is developing this hour in the Midwestern United States. This weather system is expected to push East late this evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms after midnight.
Ahead of this system, humidity levels will increase – with temperatures into the high teens lingering late this evening and overnight.
Windsor to Goderich – approximately 1am Tuesday.
Port Rowan to K/W to Shelburne – approximately 3am Tuesday.
GTA to Barrie – approximately 4am Tuesday.
Peterborough to Eastern Ontario – after 5am Tuesday.
Kingston to Ottawa – approximately 9am Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning for communities impacted by the complex of rainfall and thunderstorms tonight. A lessor threat for small hail and gusty winds also exists.
Due to already saturated soil, and rainfall intensity, a Special Weather Statement has been issued north of Lake Erie.
Rainfall totals between 20-40mm is expected north of Lake Erie. Locally, up to 50mm is possible. Elsewhere, expect 15+mm.
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