Tag: Summer

Ontario

Severe Thunderstorm Risk; Brief Cool-Down; Another Blast of Heat…

Conditions will become favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms for a large area across Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario for Thursday, July 5th.

What to Expect
With continued rising temperatures, high dew-points, and daytime heating, a weak front will slice through the aforementioned regions and provide enough instability to bring-about some severe thunderstorms later in the day on Thursday.

While the dynamics are not entirely conducive to significant supercell development, a lack of shear, ultimately, will mitigate rapid intensification and development. The primary risk therefore, with these thunderstorms, will be quick flooding rains (25-50mm).

The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will likely occur just east of Lake Huron, but likely 15-20km west of the major 401 corridor. The GTA and QEW should remain non-severe (overall) and regions around Cottage Country should receive rain showers.

1 or 2 severe thunderstorms on the northern edge of Lake Ontario cannot be ruled out.

Cool-Down
A brief / slight cool-down (24-27C; less humid; and drier conditions), will arrive for the aforementioned regions on/for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

What’s Next?
From te brief cool-down outlined above, temperatures are expected to rebound back into the upper 20s and low 30s for the next severel weeks (avg: 29-32C). This time around however, conditions will be less humid than the more recent surge of warmth.

As outlined in our summer prediction, isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across Ontario and Quebec for much of the summer.

Long-Range Outlook: Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
Continued above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions are still expected for Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. There is some potential for record-breaking heat once again somewhere in the last few days of July into early August for about a week.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

June 30 and July 1: Extreme Humidex Values to…

Humidex values across parts of Ontario this weekend are ‘all set’ to arrive for millions this weekend – just in time for Canada-Day festivities. This will be one of the hottest Canada-Day’s in years.

 

Across Southwestern and Southern Ontario, the hottest of the two days will be on Saturday with humidex values into the 40s; regions north of Toronto and extreme Southwestern Ontario will ultimately top the mid 40s.

Across Eastern Ontario, such as the Ottawa-Valley, the hottest of the two days will be on Sunday, with humidex values nearing the upper 40s to potentially 50C in some regions. Records will certainly be broken by the end of Sunday.

Temperatures across a multitude of regions this weekend will be in the neighbourhood of 32-36C with certain regions in the Ottawa-Valley potentially reaching 37-38C.

If you plan on enjoying the weekend heat – or Canada-Day/weekend festivities – remain hydrated and be fully cognisant of all potential heat exhaustion signs to prevent heat stroke.

Look-out for one another.

Be safe and have an incredible Canada Day!

After this weekend, temperatures will cool slightly but remain consistently warm for quite some-time. Watch for drought-like conditions for Ontario and Quebec for the remainder of the summer, overall, with intermittent periods of isolated severe thunderstorms.

For a quick view regarding our updated Summer Forecast from a few days ago, please view the image below.

Updated Summer Temperature Forecast.

 

TCW

Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW

Manitoba

Powerful Supercells for SE Saskatchewan Bring Tornado Risk and…


An associated warm front will set the stage for parameters conducive for strong Tornadoes today for isolated regions in SE Saskatchewan.

Residents in Southeastern Saskatchewan should be extra vigilant to the sky as the current risk leads to a threat for 1 or 2 strong Tornadoes (EF2+), large hail (nickel to ‘ping-pong’ size) and damaging winds (100-120km+).

As the cells form mainly just west of Weyburn, quick evolution and a track E to ENE as LP (low precipitative) supercells will be prevalent. These cells are representative of large hail (in this case, ‘ping-pong size), and a risk for a Tornado a little after their original formation as shear levels drop a slightly.

As the cells continue to track into Manitoba, the cells will become more of a ‘line’ just across the border into Virden, Melita and Brandon – winds up to 120km/h+ are the main threat and the Tornado threat will diminish rapidly.

Elsewhere, isolated severe cells over a large swath of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are possible.

Amongst the most interesting parameter (one among many) is the LCL (lifted condensation level: represents the lowest level in which condensation can occur). Generally, the strongest Tornadoes in history are between 300-600m. LCL levels, in this case, are somewhat conducive to Tornadoes of EF2 or stronger nature.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Alberta

Canada Spring and Summer Highlights: Summer to Arrive; Will…



Canada’s Summer Highlights; Spring Temperatures and Spring Precipitation Forecast: From TransCanada Weather

Through careful analysis of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and continental, national and global temperatures, we have formulated and depicted our predictions across the country for Spring and Summer 2018.

Spring

Atlantic Canada
A relatively active storm track across the entire region as listed, will provide ample opportunities for a mixed bag of precipitation for eastern sections, with snow for western sections through late March into early April.

Parts of New Brunswick, PEI, Western Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland and most of Labrador can expect opportunities for snow.

Temperatures will be below seasonal, particularly through early April and slowly begin to moderate from late April into May for all of Atlantic Canada.

Ontario and Quebec
A relatively active storm track will also be present particularly from late March into early April. Opportunities for snow exist, however, temperatures will likely be slightly too mild for significant snow accumulations. However, below seasonal temperatures and slightly above precipitation are expected until mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate particularly later in April and seasonal weather will become more prevalent and consistent in May.

Prairies
The Prairies will continue to remain fairly seasonal this spring with dry conditions at times, particularly later in spring; average precipitation early in the spring.

British Columbia
Much of British Columbia will experience warm surges of Pacific air with an inundation at times, of moisture from Pacific low pressure systems.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of April and May.

Summer

Atlantic Canada
An active storm track at times will provide for soaking rains and isolated severe thunderstorms at times, throughout the summer. This summer will be fairly consistently warm across the entire region with periods of hot and humid weather.

Summer will arrive, but some time will be required.

It is expected that warmth will begin to build into late June through July and August.

Ontario and Quebec
An active storm track will provide surges of heat across the region, particularly in late June through August. Severe weather will make visits at times this summer, however, it is expected the early portion of summer will remain somewhat dry, and slightly cool, with active and a widespread severe risk building from late July into August.

There is reasonable certainty that June will provide some bouts of cooler and drier weather relative to the norm.

Prairies
The Prairies will receive a typical summer; warm with periods of stiffing temperatures, severe thunderstorms and large hail and isolated tornadic risks, particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to be slightly cooler this summer, although not exceptionally cool. Surges of hot and dry weather that typically show through July-September may be somewhat limited this summer, although not non-existent.

Its not all bad news for the BC coast as moisture is expected to be to the north and south.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of June, July and August.

https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

– TCW