Tag: Scattered

Ontario

Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms for Ontario – Monday,…


A few rounds of Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms will arrive for a large swath of Ontario for Monday.

Beginning early on Monday, several rounds of severe thunderstorms will arrive for Ontario. While initially on radar, it may look like only certain regions will be encompassed by Severe Weather, there will be a few rounds throughout the day.

The initial round looks to be from Sarnia to Windsor, with a secondary and tertiary line of storms for the rest of Southern and Eastern Ontario mid to late day.

A few severe thunderstorms are also possible early on due east of Georgian Bay.

Key Highlights
– The best chance of severe thunderstorms near the Canada/USA border from a line including Sarnia SW to Windsor; primary risk is wind gusts up to or above 100km/h
– Some indications of isolated cluster cells SE of Georgian Bay, and all along the GTA, as well as, much of Eastern Ontario; primary risks are winds up to 90km/h, small hail and torrential rain
– Elsewhere, a few isolated severe thunderstorms are likely

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

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Ontario

Severe Thunderstorm Risk; Brief Cool-Down; Another Blast of Heat…

Conditions will become favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms for a large area across Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario for Thursday, July 5th.

What to Expect
With continued rising temperatures, high dew-points, and daytime heating, a weak front will slice through the aforementioned regions and provide enough instability to bring-about some severe thunderstorms later in the day on Thursday.

While the dynamics are not entirely conducive to significant supercell development, a lack of shear, ultimately, will mitigate rapid intensification and development. The primary risk therefore, with these thunderstorms, will be quick flooding rains (25-50mm).

The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will likely occur just east of Lake Huron, but likely 15-20km west of the major 401 corridor. The GTA and QEW should remain non-severe (overall) and regions around Cottage Country should receive rain showers.

1 or 2 severe thunderstorms on the northern edge of Lake Ontario cannot be ruled out.

Cool-Down
A brief / slight cool-down (24-27C; less humid; and drier conditions), will arrive for the aforementioned regions on/for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

What’s Next?
From te brief cool-down outlined above, temperatures are expected to rebound back into the upper 20s and low 30s for the next severel weeks (avg: 29-32C). This time around however, conditions will be less humid than the more recent surge of warmth.

As outlined in our summer prediction, isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across Ontario and Quebec for much of the summer.

Long-Range Outlook: Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
Continued above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions are still expected for Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. There is some potential for record-breaking heat once again somewhere in the last few days of July into early August for about a week.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather