Tag: Saskatchewan

Alberta

Long-Duration Snowstorm Brings Early Season Chill Across British Columbia…

A strengthening Colorado Low will bring a long-duration, widespread snowstorm to portions of British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan before lingering into Manitoba and Northern Ontario.

A weak low is expected to bring a snowstorm to the mountains of British Columbia and Alberta on Friday lasting through to Sunday. Strengthening into the weekend, on Saturday, a strong low is expected to form near the Wyoming/Colorado border before moving east towards Northwestern Ontario before phasing out and reorganizing into a low which will bring widespread rain to portions of Northeastern and Southern Ontario.

WESTERN PRAIRIES & SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SNOWFALL TOTALS

Accumulations from the snowstorm will vary greatly throughout Southern Alberta/Saskatchewan with the heaviest accumulations throughout the mountains. Current guidance suggests snowfall totals will be highest between 30 and 60cm, locally higher towards 70cm+, in the extreme southwestern portion of Alberta throughout Waterton Lakes National Park towards Pincher Creek, where the extent of red is shaded in the forecast map. Isolated totals near 100cm may be possible. Along the United States border extending into the mountains, highlighted in pink, snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm are likely with pockets of snow towards 40cm possible throughout the mountains. The highest snowfall totals are due to the position of the low creating an ‘up-sloping’ event where the snow is driven up and into the mountains and foothills allowing for significant accumulations. Snowfall ratios in this region will likely peak around 10:1 (10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water).

Down the mountains into the foothills and into the Central-Northern Rocky Mountains, Purcell Mountains, and Northern Selkirks Mountains, snowfall totals will be limited to 10-20cm with local totals towards 20-30cm. This includes Banff and Cranbrook, as well as, this region is highlighted in purple on the forecast map. In Extreme Southern Alberta, outside of the foothills will likely see between 10-20cm of snow. This includes the City of Lethbridge extending towards the southeast, also seen in purple on the forecast map. The snowfall totals may significantly drop off outside of the mountains and foothill regions as temperatures on Saturday through to Monday across the lower Prairie regions will be within 2 degrees of 0, meaning, snow may change over to rain at the lower elevations. This would significantly limit accumulations. The temperature change would be most prevalent in Extreme Southeastern Alberta into Southern Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals in this region are expected to be between 5-15cm are likely, which can be seen in purple on the forecast map, and circled. If temperatures trend cooler for this region, 10-20cm wouldn’t be out of the question for Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, extending as far in to include Shaunavon. Snowfall ratios will peak around the 3:1 and 5:1 range.

A general 5-15cm, locally up to 25cm, can be extended throughout the Rocky Mountains from the Lake Lousie region northwest into British Columbia extending towards Fort Nelson, as well as the Southern Selkirks Mountains and portions of the Monashees and Cascade Mountains. This would include Jasper and Grande Cache. This is highlighted in dark blue on the map. Across Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, a widespread 5-10cm, locally 15-20cm can be expected, also highlighted in dark blue. This includes Calgary, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Rockglen, and Penticton. Elsewhere in light blue, flurries are likely. Snowfall totals around 5cm with local totals to 10-15cm are likely around Kelowna and Vernon. Snowfall totals will range under 5cm with local pockets sticking up to 10cm for portions of Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. Generally, the snow will melt-on-contact for a majority of the event for these highlighted regions, including Red Deer, Regina, and Saskatoon.

Environment Canada has issued widespread special weather statements across Southern, Western and Central Alberta, as well as, portions of British Columbia. Winter storm watches have been issued ahead of the snowstorm for Pincher Creek, Waterton Lakes National Park, Canmore, Okotoks, Cardston, and Fort Macleod regions.

Weather alerts can be monitored on Environment Canada’s website: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Projected snowfall totals between Friday, September 27th to Monday, September 30th

MANITOBA & ONTARIO SNOWFALL TOTALS

As the snowstorm producing low-pressure system crosses east, bringing the precipitation with it, light to moderate showers are likely across Southern Manitoba, and most of Northern Ontario. Alongside these showers, a band of flurries to light snow will cross portions of Central/Northern Manitoba into Far Northern Ontario. Snowfall totals less than or near 5cm are likely due to the snow mainly being melt-on-contact. A few pockets across Southwestern Manitoba and into Far Northern Ontario may see local totals towards 10cm. The highest confidence for locally higher totals is circled in red.

Projected snowfall totals between Monday, September 30th to Wednesday, October 2nd

BLOWING SNOW & STRONG WINDS

As the snow falls across the Southern Prairies, increasing wind speeds will bring the threat for hazardous traveling conditions in fast accumulating snow and falling snow. Current guidance suggests wind speeds will range from 30-50km/h across Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan later in the day on Saturday extending through to Sunday morning. During the afternoon and evening on Sunday, winds will likely increase to 40-70km/h before 40-60km/h wind gusts settle in across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario as the system weakens and phases out beginning mid-day Monday.

Blizzard conditions are possible.

Blowing snow and falling snow may make travel hazardous on Highway 1, 2, 3, and 4 across Southern Alberta and on Highway 1, 13, 18, 21, and 37 in Southern Saskatchewan.

Alberta

Severe Weather Envelopes the Southwestern Prairies Thursday; Reloads Friday

A potent upper-air pattern will create extreme instability across the Southwestern Prairies Thursday. A surface trough will slice through the summer air offering a trigger for explosive thunderstorm development in the unstable atmosphere.

Winds at the surface out of the southeast and upper-level winds from the southwest suggest a well-sheared warm sector. The strongest surface heating will remain just south of the border. In spite of that, ample moisture delivery, temperatures falling aloft, effective shear, and plenty of energy will provide a breeding grounding for severe thunderstorms Thursday.

Thunderstorms will develop across Southern Alberta and Northern Montana around 2 pm. Trans-versing northeastwards throughout the afternoon and evening, Initial storm develop may feature discrete cells and bowing segments; a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado is possible. As progression into the evening continues, a powerful nocturnal complex of thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCS), may develop. These convective weather systems are notorious producers of damaging winds, intense frequent lightning, large hail, and localized flooding in torrential downpours. Moreover, these systems are known to persist well into the pre-dawn hours.

click to navigate forecast map.

HAZARDS: 90-110km/h wind gusts, 2-5cm hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado.

We will be monitoring the thunderstorms throughout Saskatchewan and Alberta attentively on Thursday. Be sure to closely monitor watches and warnings throughout the afternoon, evening and overnight. We will be issuing another forecast for severe thunderstorm risk in Saskatchewan, Friday. The risk depends greatly on the evolution of thunderstorms Thursday into pre-dawn Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WEST OF EDMONTON

Much of the focus is rightfully centered around substantial thunderstorm risk further south, but appreciable rainfall amounts along the Highway 16 & 40 corridor is worth mentioning. This region has already seen very-heavy rainfall over the last several days. Another 50-75mm is on tap between Hinton and Edmonton, through Friday.

Alberta

Much NEEDED RAINFALL & SNOW to Kick off the…

A potent upper-level system will stall all week across Alberta and Saskatchewan. The unsettled pattern will bring much-needed rainfall, thunderstorms, much below seasonal temperatures, and even accumulating S*** for Banff & Jasper.

Beneficial rainfall will persist all week in Alberta & Saskatchewan as an upper-level system stalls across the region. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated across Central Alberta where 50-75mm+ is expected by Friday. With much of that rain falling between Wednesday and Thursday. Some rainfall is in the forecast for drought-stricken High Level (Northern Alberta) & Moose Jaw (Southwestern Saskatchewan).

The much below seasonal temperatures and a soaking rainfall will make it feel more like the middle of October across the foothills. By Wednesday, temperatures will plummet nearly 10c below seasonal. Continuing through the day Thursday.

DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE TUESDAY

Thunderstorms have been an almost daily occurrence over the last several days in the Prairies. The thunderstorm risk is expected to continue this week.

Monday: thunderstorms producing heavy downpours and small hail across Interior British Columbia and Northern Alberta.

Locally strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the yellow shaded area today.

Tuesday: better dynamics for potent thunderstorms across Southern Alberta (Calgary to Medicine Hat). Discrete cells or supercells could be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

Wednesday: daytime heating thunderstorm risk moves further East into Saskatchewan.

ACCUMULATING SNOW KICKS OFF SUMMER IN BANFF & JASPER

Between Wednesday night through Friday, accumulating up-sloping snow is expected over the high-elevation topography of Banff and Jasper National Parks. Believe or not, Friday is officially the first day of summer.

Alberta

Major Snowstorm Slices Through British Columbia & the Prairies

A Major Pattern reversal is underway across Western Canada. Cold air will descend from Northern Canada beginning Friday, coinciding with an extended period of heavy snowfall.

Our forecasting team will be closely monitoring the progression a major winter storm beginning Thursday evening. The Winter Storm isn’t expected to bring heavy snowfall rates, but rather an extended period of light-moderate snow over the next 48 hours.

The heaviest snowfall totals are expected through the Rockies; across British Columbia and Alberta. Where in excess of 50cm of snow is expected to fall. Even major cities, such as Edmonton won’t escape the wintry weather. With 30 or more centimeters projected to fall, over the next couple days.

Projected Snowfall Totals through Saturday PM
**Click map to make it zoomable.
Alberta

[UPDATED] Prairies: Not Your Usual Clipper System This Weekend

Alberta Clippers are synonymous for bringing snowfall lee of the Canadian Rockies, during December and January. These typically moisture-starved systems are fast movers, ejecting quickly out of Alberta, through the Southern Prairies – towards the Great Lakes. Read more about Alberta Clippers here.

A clipper is expected to form in Northern Alberta Saturday evening. Normally, these systems are more of a nuisance, accompanied by low snowfall totals and quick forward motion. On the contrary, this weekends system will flourish. Thanks to clashing temperatures and abundant Pacific moisture.

SNOWFALL TOTALS

Accumulations will vary greatly throughout the Prairies, bearing in mind the heaviest snow will fall along a narrow swath. Current guidance suggests close to 15cm across the northern extent of the darker shaded region (in our forecast map). Including, Northern & Central Alberta. The heaviest snow (~20cm) will fall across Extreme Southwest Manitoba and Southeast Saskatchewan. *Model guidance has increased snowfall totals further into Southwestern Manitoba, where Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings. Several warnings now stretch across parts of Prairies.

There will be another swath of snow tracking down the Rockies, bringing 10-20cm. It looks like Calgary will be limited to less than 5cm through Friday. By Saturday, a steep contrast in temperature envelopes the Prairies. Calgary will see a high of 9c and sunshine. Whereas, Eastern Saskatchewan will still be below freezing.

Projected snowfall totals through this weekend.

STRONG WINDS & BLOWING SNOW

Winds pickup between the Grande Prairie – Whitecourt corridor early Saturday evening. Winds sustained at or over 30km/h, gusting 60-80km/h. Gusty winds will overspread much of Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. The strongest wind gusts aren’t expected to coincide with the heaviest swath of snow. Still, freshly fallen snowfall, which is dry and light – will combine with gusty winds. Bringing local blowing and drifting snow. Stay tuned to weather advisories, or statements pertaining to any potential road closures.

Manitoba

More Snow to End the Work Week Across the…

A weak system stateside brings another round of snow for Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba Friday.

Wet snow and mixing will begin overnight tonight along the international border. Conditions will quickly deteriorate with accumulating snow beginning early Friday morning.

Weather Model depiction shows light to moderate snowfall at 6am, Friday morning.

Light to moderate snowfall will continue into the the afternoon.

Weather model depiction showing wet snowfall continuing into the afternoon.

Snowfall accumulations between 5-15cm is expected. Winnipeg will be on the mixing line between rain and wet snow by the afternoon. 2-4cm is possible.

UPDATE: the 4-8cm swath may encompass municipalities further North and East in Manitoba. With warmer temperatures, actual ground accumulation will lead to trace amounts.

Projected snowfall totals through Friday.

Prepare for an extended commute and winter travel conditions Friday. 

Manitoba

Early Fall Snowfall Strikes Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Tricky driving associated with an early taste of winter across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba.

Snow begins today in Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, persisting into Wednesday across Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario.

SYNOPSIS:

A boundary separating cold and warm air will descend Southwards across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba through Tuesday allowing temperatures to dip near the freezing mark. A drop in temperatures near freezing or just below is expected along a narrow band of light-moderate snow developing across the Southern Prairies. Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen through Wednesday, as it tracks out of Montana into the Dakotas. 

A narrow band of snowfall situated across Western Saskatchewan will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the evening, spreading across all of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight. Continuing across a narrow corridor of Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario Wednesday.

This will be wet snow event for southwestern Manitoba (including Brandon). Light tree damage due to heavy-wet snow is possible Wednesday. 

EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS:

5-15cm is expected across a narrow swath from Extreme Southern Saskatchewan through Southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will see a cold rain, changing over to wet snow. Timing of the changeover to wet snow is leading to uncertainty, regarding accumulation.

Higher elevation in the Parklands Region, may see higher accumulations near, or exceeding 20cm. Including Riding Mountain National Park and the Dauphin area. 

Manitoba

Heavy Thunderstorms Expected in Southeastern Prairies

Widespread heavy to severe thunderstorms likely late this evening – continuing into the overnight hours in Southern Manitoba and Southeastern Saskatchewan. 

 

A stationary front this afternoon in Northern Dakota will separate warm, moist air south of the international border, with warm, drier air in Southern Manitoba. Along this front, there is a risk of isolated severe storms in North Dakota this afternoon – staying stateside. 

A deepening system out of Rockies will trigger severe thunderstorms stateside and a second, more significant/widespread risk of thunderstorms this evening/overnight.

Environment Canada (PASPC) Thunderstorm Outlook. Valid 12pm Thursday to 6am Friday. Highlighting the risk for severe thunderstorms. Note: these forecast maps are still experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canadas website. 

A second wave which is forecast to develop late in the day, stateside, is the one we are watching closely. Moist and unstable air creeps across the border into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba this evening. The northern extent of the second wave is expected to cross the international border into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba sometime around midnight. 

There is still some uncertainty regarding evolution and timing of this convective complex. Such complexes also known as MCSs or MCCs – Mesoscale Convective Complex; are notorious for producing intense frequent lightning, flash flooding, and damaging to destructive winds. Large hail is also a possibility, during the initial storm development.

The risk moves out of Southeastern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario pre-dawn Friday into Friday morning.

We will be monitoring the situation attentively into this evening and overnight. 

Alberta

[UPDATED] Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Prairies

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today (Monday June 25th, 2018) and tomorrow (Tuesday June 26th, 2018) in the Prairies.

MONDAY:
A cold front will act as a trigger for severe thunderstorms today in Alberta.

The greatest risk for severe will center itself north of highway 43 and along and west of highway 63. Much of the severe activity looks to be staying south of Fort McMurray.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has placed this region in a “severe” risk on their map. Highlighting the risk for 3-6cm hail. Other threats include damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, and frequent lightning.

Environment Canada forecast map for today – highlighting the severe risk in Alberta. Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage and are not currently operational.

TUESDAY:
A disturbance and associated cold front will move Eastwards out of Alberta tonight into Saskatchewan. The disturbance is expected to deepen as it centres itself over Central Saskatchewan Tuesday Afternoon.

The cold front will act as a trigger for thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba between 2pm and 8pm – West to East.

Some of these storms could turn severe with frequent lightning, large hail, torrential rainfall and strong winds.

Environment Canadas Convective Discussion for Tuesday, June 26th.

Manitoba

A Weekend of Severe Thunderstorms in the Prairies Persists

Isolated severe thunderstorms expected today (Sunday, June 10th) in Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central and Eastern Saskatchewan beginning by the mid-afternoon and persisting well into the evening hours in Western Manitoba.

We have highlighted an area in orange where the greatest risk develops. Regions is yellow can expect primarily non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Note: this risk continues into Western Manitoba.

Risk factors associated with these thunderstorms include: large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected for Monday.

Severe thunderstorm risk for today expected in the orange section of our map. 

ANALYSIS

A surface low will decent across Southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning Sunday. The first low has led to rain and heavy thunderstorms in Southwestern areas of the province early this morning. At the same time, a secondary low pressure center/vort max will be deepening as it approaches Western Saskatchewan during the afternoon. A trough in the Jet-stream will be progressing Eastwards across Saskatchewan during the period.

A eastward progressing front associated with the deepening low-pressure system, will act as a trigger from the mid-afternoon through the late evening – across Central and Eastern Saskatchewan.

Deep moisture transport aided by a 30-40kt low-level Jet out of the Southeast will result in dew-points in the high teens. Concurrently, temperatures will likely rise into the high 20s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will likely build above 2000 J/KG across the warm sector, providing plentiful energy for strong thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft (a “cap”) will have to erode before storms can erupt – perhaps after peak energy.

Marginal wind shear and helicity readings, little veering with height, and a high LCL is expected to limited any tornado activity despite a south-easterly surface wind. The south-easterly flow and storm mode/track may allow for “training” – which heightens the threat for localized flooding.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has issued a map highlighting Southeastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba in a “moderate” risk for severe thunderstorms. Primary hazards include: 110km/h wind-gusts and 3-5cm hail. NOTE: these maps are still in the experimental stage. 

Near the low center (which is expected to exist in the North Battleford corridor), a soaking rainfall and heavy thunderstorms is expected. This activity should remain non-severe. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are expected.

The risk for severe thunderstorms continues Eastwards into Manitoba. Reloading again, for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario on Monday.

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