Tag: Hail

Ontario

Isolated Severe Storms Slice Humidity in Ontario & Quebec

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the lower half of Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec today (July 2nd, 2018).

A weak cold front will slowly track across Southern ON/SQUE today acting as a trigger for thunderstorms. The frontal passage is not expected to offer much relief from the heat, but will lower humidity to more comfortable levels tonight and Tuesday.

The primary risk with these thunderstorms will be torrential rainfall. Due to slow movement of the frontal passage some thunderstorms may “train” or, regenerate over the same region bringing locally 30-50mm in a short period of time. Additionally, isolated damaging winds are possible – primarily in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Quebec where the greatest risk for severe exists. Small hail between pea and dime size is possible in the more robust updrafts across the entire isolated severe risk zone.

The timing for storm development today, will be between 11am-6pm. We have highlighted localized municipalities – stretching from the Golden Horseshoe into Eastern Ontario in a isolated severe threat.

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Manitoba

Powerful Supercells for SE Saskatchewan Bring Tornado Risk and…


An associated warm front will set the stage for parameters conducive for strong Tornadoes today for isolated regions in SE Saskatchewan.

Residents in Southeastern Saskatchewan should be extra vigilant to the sky as the current risk leads to a threat for 1 or 2 strong Tornadoes (EF2+), large hail (nickel to ‘ping-pong’ size) and damaging winds (100-120km+).

As the cells form mainly just west of Weyburn, quick evolution and a track E to ENE as LP (low precipitative) supercells will be prevalent. These cells are representative of large hail (in this case, ‘ping-pong size), and a risk for a Tornado a little after their original formation as shear levels drop a slightly.

As the cells continue to track into Manitoba, the cells will become more of a ‘line’ just across the border into Virden, Melita and Brandon – winds up to 120km/h+ are the main threat and the Tornado threat will diminish rapidly.

Elsewhere, isolated severe cells over a large swath of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are possible.

Amongst the most interesting parameter (one among many) is the LCL (lifted condensation level: represents the lowest level in which condensation can occur). Generally, the strongest Tornadoes in history are between 300-600m. LCL levels, in this case, are somewhat conducive to Tornadoes of EF2 or stronger nature.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

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