Tag: Fire danger

Alberta

Convective Outlook: Thunderstorms & Flood Risk

Our forecasting team at TransCanada Weather is cautiously watching long range model guidance. Between Tuesday May 28th – Thursday, June 6th, the evolution of a pattern supportive of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms & unsettled conditions will envelop parts of Canada. Read below to find out where.

PRAIRIES: Unsettled Conditions, Risk of Cold Core Funnels, Threat of Thunderstorms

The Prairies will have to contend with unsettled conditions. Including a pattern that may support the risk of cold core funnel clouds & areas of severe thunderstorms between late May to early June. This is be welcomed news for Alberta; contending with out-of-control forest fires.

GREAT LAKES: Heavy Rain & Severe Thunderstorms

A second area we are watching closely: the Great Lakes/Ontario region. A supportive pattern for flooding and/or severe thunderstorms is possible between Tuesday May 28th to Thursday May 30th.

Abnormally, deep troughing, seasonably deep height-falls, strong waves of low-pressure, concurrent with a southeast ridge. Will bring surges of warm moist air along with supportive wind profiles for severe thunderstorms and/or flood risk. A significant severe day will be possible within this regime across Southern or Northeastern Ontario.

Saturday, May 25th: after Thursday, the next threat for severe across Southern Ontario will come Saturday. Risks across Southwestern Ontario include: isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail & torrential downpours.

Additional considerations: drought conditions in the Southeastern US allowing mid-level dry/warm air to migrate north within stronger circulations. Abnormally-wet southern plains, increasing low-level moisture transport/PWAT values in stronger 850mb flows.

-troy

Alberta

Extreme Fire Conditions Aided by Record Heat in the…

Daytime highs around 30C – challenge record highs across the Southern Prairies this week. Little reprieve in sight from Extreme fire conditions. Locally heavy thunderstorms expected by mid-week.

EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS & RECORD HIGHS

The last full week of May will feel more like summer across the Canadian Prairies. Rising fire ratings this week, can be attributed to a large ridge in the Jet-stream – sending temperatures soaring up to 10C above seasonal. This has led to the first issuance of a Heat Warning for 2018 – for Central and Northeastern Alberta. 

Hot and dry conditions have led to extreme fire conditions across the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba).

Current Hotspots being detected by satellite show several brush, grass, and vegetation fires in Southern Manitoba – continuing into Saskatchewan.

Source: Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved May 22nd 2018.

“A hotspot is a satellite image pixel with high infrared intensity, indicating a heat source. Hotspots from known industrial sources are removed; the remaining hotspots represent vegetation fires, which can be in forest, grass, cropland, or logging debris.” – Natural Resources Canada

Fire conditions continue to worsen this week ahead of a threat for thunderstorms.

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Tuesday May 22nd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Wednesday  May 23rd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Thursday  May 24th, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

If you are a smoker, be mindful of where you throw cigarette butts. Avoid any outdoor burning or use of any source of ignition while outside.

RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK

The threat for thunderstorms develops Wednesday for Southern Saskatchewan. Moving east into Manitoba for Thursday. We are closely watching for a risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday in Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk retreats further west into Alberta for Friday and Saturday.

With thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning – an ignition source for fires.

Unfortunately, little relief from extreme fire conditions is expected due to the isolated and convective nature of thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve some – especially for Southern Saskatchewan – by late week.

We will be closely monitoring the situation.

 

 

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