Tag: Blowing Snow

Alberta

Long-Duration Snowstorm Brings Early Season Chill Across British Columbia…

A strengthening Colorado Low will bring a long-duration, widespread snowstorm to portions of British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan before lingering into Manitoba and Northern Ontario.

A weak low is expected to bring a snowstorm to the mountains of British Columbia and Alberta on Friday lasting through to Sunday. Strengthening into the weekend, on Saturday, a strong low is expected to form near the Wyoming/Colorado border before moving east towards Northwestern Ontario before phasing out and reorganizing into a low which will bring widespread rain to portions of Northeastern and Southern Ontario.

WESTERN PRAIRIES & SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SNOWFALL TOTALS

Accumulations from the snowstorm will vary greatly throughout Southern Alberta/Saskatchewan with the heaviest accumulations throughout the mountains. Current guidance suggests snowfall totals will be highest between 30 and 60cm, locally higher towards 70cm+, in the extreme southwestern portion of Alberta throughout Waterton Lakes National Park towards Pincher Creek, where the extent of red is shaded in the forecast map. Isolated totals near 100cm may be possible. Along the United States border extending into the mountains, highlighted in pink, snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm are likely with pockets of snow towards 40cm possible throughout the mountains. The highest snowfall totals are due to the position of the low creating an ‘up-sloping’ event where the snow is driven up and into the mountains and foothills allowing for significant accumulations. Snowfall ratios in this region will likely peak around 10:1 (10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water).

Down the mountains into the foothills and into the Central-Northern Rocky Mountains, Purcell Mountains, and Northern Selkirks Mountains, snowfall totals will be limited to 10-20cm with local totals towards 20-30cm. This includes Banff and Cranbrook, as well as, this region is highlighted in purple on the forecast map. In Extreme Southern Alberta, outside of the foothills will likely see between 10-20cm of snow. This includes the City of Lethbridge extending towards the southeast, also seen in purple on the forecast map. The snowfall totals may significantly drop off outside of the mountains and foothill regions as temperatures on Saturday through to Monday across the lower Prairie regions will be within 2 degrees of 0, meaning, snow may change over to rain at the lower elevations. This would significantly limit accumulations. The temperature change would be most prevalent in Extreme Southeastern Alberta into Southern Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals in this region are expected to be between 5-15cm are likely, which can be seen in purple on the forecast map, and circled. If temperatures trend cooler for this region, 10-20cm wouldn’t be out of the question for Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, extending as far in to include Shaunavon. Snowfall ratios will peak around the 3:1 and 5:1 range.

A general 5-15cm, locally up to 25cm, can be extended throughout the Rocky Mountains from the Lake Lousie region northwest into British Columbia extending towards Fort Nelson, as well as the Southern Selkirks Mountains and portions of the Monashees and Cascade Mountains. This would include Jasper and Grande Cache. This is highlighted in dark blue on the map. Across Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, a widespread 5-10cm, locally 15-20cm can be expected, also highlighted in dark blue. This includes Calgary, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Rockglen, and Penticton. Elsewhere in light blue, flurries are likely. Snowfall totals around 5cm with local totals to 10-15cm are likely around Kelowna and Vernon. Snowfall totals will range under 5cm with local pockets sticking up to 10cm for portions of Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. Generally, the snow will melt-on-contact for a majority of the event for these highlighted regions, including Red Deer, Regina, and Saskatoon.

Environment Canada has issued widespread special weather statements across Southern, Western and Central Alberta, as well as, portions of British Columbia. Winter storm watches have been issued ahead of the snowstorm for Pincher Creek, Waterton Lakes National Park, Canmore, Okotoks, Cardston, and Fort Macleod regions.

Weather alerts can be monitored on Environment Canada’s website: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Projected snowfall totals between Friday, September 27th to Monday, September 30th

MANITOBA & ONTARIO SNOWFALL TOTALS

As the snowstorm producing low-pressure system crosses east, bringing the precipitation with it, light to moderate showers are likely across Southern Manitoba, and most of Northern Ontario. Alongside these showers, a band of flurries to light snow will cross portions of Central/Northern Manitoba into Far Northern Ontario. Snowfall totals less than or near 5cm are likely due to the snow mainly being melt-on-contact. A few pockets across Southwestern Manitoba and into Far Northern Ontario may see local totals towards 10cm. The highest confidence for locally higher totals is circled in red.

Projected snowfall totals between Monday, September 30th to Wednesday, October 2nd

BLOWING SNOW & STRONG WINDS

As the snow falls across the Southern Prairies, increasing wind speeds will bring the threat for hazardous traveling conditions in fast accumulating snow and falling snow. Current guidance suggests wind speeds will range from 30-50km/h across Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan later in the day on Saturday extending through to Sunday morning. During the afternoon and evening on Sunday, winds will likely increase to 40-70km/h before 40-60km/h wind gusts settle in across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario as the system weakens and phases out beginning mid-day Monday.

Blizzard conditions are possible.

Blowing snow and falling snow may make travel hazardous on Highway 1, 2, 3, and 4 across Southern Alberta and on Highway 1, 13, 18, 21, and 37 in Southern Saskatchewan.

New Brunswick

Strongest Low in Decades Zeros in on the Great…

Our forecasting team is vigilantly monitoring a powerful low-pressure system expected to form North of the Texas Panhandle late this evening. The upper-level disturbance originating out of California, will coincide with a favorable setup for an explosive storm development. Read more about Panhandle Hooks’ here.

Did you know? It was an infamous Panhandle Hook which sank the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975.

This storm will feature strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and shifting ice-conditions across the Great Lakes. Almost everyone in Eastern Canada will feel the effects of this powerful storm. Read more to gain insight on how this storm may impact you.

BLOCKBUSTER BLIZZARD EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR

Our forecast team is closely monitoring a soon-to-be rapidly strengthening Panhandle Hook, sagging into the Texas Panhandle. Gathering abundant gulf moisture before trekking towards the Upper Great Lakes. The storm will experience the most intensification while tracking Northeastwards through the Upper Midwest (United States), towards Lake Superior & Northern Ontario. Coinciding with an expanding strong to damaging wind field.

Confidence is considerable for a high-impact Low for regions N and NE of Lake Superior with likely 30cm or more of blowing snow contingent with 60km/h+ wind gusts. The heaviest snowfall will likely be 30-40km inland from the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. This is bad news (or good new depending on your prerogative), when considering how much snow has already fallen across this region. Some are running out of places to even put the snow.

The fiercest winds will not correspond with the heaviest snowfall rates. Still, inland locales such as Timmins & Kapuskasing will still have to contend with extensive blowing & drifting snow. Especially, once the low tracks into Quebec, with colder air and stronger gusts arriving on the backside of the low.

There will be a line of mixing of wintry precipitation likely from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury to the QC border. Including a brief period of ice pellets and rain-showers.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Temperatures will begin to surge above freezing across Southwestern Ontario, as early as, late Saturday evening. Double-digit temperatures & strong Southwesterly winds will advance throughout the Southern half of the Province throughout the morning & afternoon. Rain-showers and even a risk of elevated thunderstorms is expected. Proceeded by, a sharp cold front & plummeting temperatures.

We anticipate extensive blowing snow and poor-visibility East of Lake Huron late Sunday evening through Monday. Avoid all unnecessary travel in the red highlighted area on our wind impact map.

The supportive track and strength of the low will herald in a significant damaging wind threat across Southern Ontario. The strongest winds could peak as high as hurricane force (120km/h), along the Northeast shore of Lake Erie. We anticipate wind gusts over 100km/h across Prince Edward County, and East of Lake Huron. Peak wind gusts will likely reach or exceed 90km/h across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Projected Peak Wind Gusts through Late Sunday. We kept these projections conservative until the storm developes..

The sudden onset of warm air, rainfall, and extreme wind gusts will bring treacherous ice conditions across the Great Lakes. Ice shoves may be damaging to infrastructure along exposed shorelines. If you participate in winter activities such as, ice fishing or snowmobiling, it would be a good idea to remove your ice hut from the Great Lakes. Avoid snowmobiling until ice conditions improve.

A NEW COASTAL LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE MARITIMES

The powerful storm sweeps through Quebec on Sunday, and will subsequently phase into a strong ‘weather bomb’ south of Yarmouth. Potentially, deepening below 970mb (967-969mb).

While the exact phasing & extend of warm air advection is not entirely set-in-stone, it appears the heaviest swaths of snowfall will likely be off the Gaspe Peninsula shoreline and into the North Atlantic, thereby mitigating what could have been 2 or more feet of snow.

Southern New Brunswick will likely experience a rain/snow/wintry mix. With amounts totaling near 10cm. Amounts increasing to 20-30cm across the Northern extent of the Province. Pockets of heavier enhancement, accompanied by similar conditions is expected across Extreme Southern Newfoundland

Timing
Western New Brunswick – Late Afternoon Sunday
Most of New Brunswick – Sunday Evening
Nova Scotia – Sunday Mid Evening
PEI – Sunday Overnight
Newfoundland – Monday

Hardest Hit
Gaspe (35-45cm)
Bathurst (25-35cm)
Edmundston (30-35cm)
Campbellton (30-35cm)
Extreme Southern Shoreline of Newfoundland (25-40cm)

DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC

A major blizzard is on-tap for much of Northern Quebec. The worst of the treacherous conditions will be felt across the mouth of the Rupert River, Southeast of James Bay. Where rural communities can expect winds over 90km/h combined with 15-25cm of freshly fallen snow. Extensive blowing/drifting snow & near-zero visibility is expected. Isolated communities across Central & Northern Quebec may become cut-off, briefly.

Alberta

[UPDATED] Prairies: Not Your Usual Clipper System This Weekend

Alberta Clippers are synonymous for bringing snowfall lee of the Canadian Rockies, during December and January. These typically moisture-starved systems are fast movers, ejecting quickly out of Alberta, through the Southern Prairies – towards the Great Lakes. Read more about Alberta Clippers here.

A clipper is expected to form in Northern Alberta Saturday evening. Normally, these systems are more of a nuisance, accompanied by low snowfall totals and quick forward motion. On the contrary, this weekends system will flourish. Thanks to clashing temperatures and abundant Pacific moisture.

SNOWFALL TOTALS

Accumulations will vary greatly throughout the Prairies, bearing in mind the heaviest snow will fall along a narrow swath. Current guidance suggests close to 15cm across the northern extent of the darker shaded region (in our forecast map). Including, Northern & Central Alberta. The heaviest snow (~20cm) will fall across Extreme Southwest Manitoba and Southeast Saskatchewan. *Model guidance has increased snowfall totals further into Southwestern Manitoba, where Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings. Several warnings now stretch across parts of Prairies.

There will be another swath of snow tracking down the Rockies, bringing 10-20cm. It looks like Calgary will be limited to less than 5cm through Friday. By Saturday, a steep contrast in temperature envelopes the Prairies. Calgary will see a high of 9c and sunshine. Whereas, Eastern Saskatchewan will still be below freezing.

Projected snowfall totals through this weekend.

STRONG WINDS & BLOWING SNOW

Winds pickup between the Grande Prairie – Whitecourt corridor early Saturday evening. Winds sustained at or over 30km/h, gusting 60-80km/h. Gusty winds will overspread much of Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. The strongest wind gusts aren’t expected to coincide with the heaviest swath of snow. Still, freshly fallen snowfall, which is dry and light – will combine with gusty winds. Bringing local blowing and drifting snow. Stay tuned to weather advisories, or statements pertaining to any potential road closures.

New Brunswick

[FINAL UPDATE – 04/07 @ 6:15PM] Snowstorm Looms for…


Here we go again – a significant snowstorm for Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and Western Newfoundland. As much as 35cm or locally more in the most impacted regions.

Energy off the East Coast of the USA will be set to sweep off-shore and close to Nova Scotia and Western Newfoundland.

Key Updates as of 04/07 @ 6:15PM

Confidence is quite high that a significant snowstorm will move into the region of Atlantic Canada, and target most of Nova Scotia (including Cape Breton), eastern PEI, and Newfoundland (mainly Western Newfoundland).

Overall snowfall totals for impacted regions (as per our map above) can be expected in a range of 15-25cm. We at TCW expect regions 10-20km inland from the Western Newfoundland shoreline as well as 5-10km inland from the NW Cape Breton shoreline to reach 25-40cm of snow.

New Brunswick will be largely non-impacted from this system.

SW Nova Scotia will experience a snow/rain mix.

Central Newfoundland will experience a mix of snow and prolonged light freezing rain, while eastern Newfoundland will experience a wet snow/rain/light freezing rain mix.

**Note: There is some potential some localized regions in south-central and central Newfoundland (roughly 20km N/NW of Burgeo and extending to Grand-Falls-Windsor, to receive around 10-15cm of snow as well as 8-15mm of freezing rain). Elsewhere, light freezing rain risks exists, but the accretion will be half or less than the aforementioned accretion.

Saturday
Conditions can colloquially be phrased as “calm before the storm”, with relatively calm conditions.
Conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate for SW Nova Scotia very late Saturday Night.

Sunday
Conditions will deteriorate through much of Nova Scotia by the pre-dawn.
Conditions will deteriorate through much of PEI and Cape Breton by the afternoon.

Sunday Evening (6pm MST)
Conditions should improve (progressively) for most of the Maritimes and conditions will deteriorate across Newfoundland.

Monday
Conditions will slowly improve all-together for the Maritimes.

Tuesday
Conditions will slowly improve all-together for Newfoundland.

Watch for gusty winds and local blowing snow.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

New Brunswick

Powerful Nor’easter Looms for the Maritimes; Tempestuous Conditions Inevitable


Past Updates

Nor’easter for the Maritimes.

Significant snowstorm will impact the Maritimes once again: Tuesday and Wednesday time-frame.

A low pressure system moving near the Eastern Seaboard of the United States will target the Maritimes this upcoming work-week. Current indications are now such that a significant snowstorm is probable, particularly for much of New Brunswick and especially the NE corridor of the province.

High confidence exists that this storm will produce a widespread swath of 20-30cm+ across New Brunswick, with slightly lesser amounts along the Bay of Fundy shoreline. Additionally, due to a surge of milder Atlantic air, a mix of snow/rain will lead to less significant amounts for coastal regions of Nova Scotia, Eastern PEI and most of Cape Breton.

While temperatures will be slightly mild at the surface and @ 925mb, further upper atmospheric temperatures are still quite chilly, therefore there is almost a nil chance of freezing rain/ice-pellets.

Subsequently, ‘dry air’ is non-existent in this case at the surface, and moisture will indeed remain high.

Snow ratios will not be exceptionally high, however, based on the current track of the low pressure system, surface temperatures will remain slightly cooler across Eastern and Northeastern New Brunswick, thereby allowing for higher totals than their surrounding counterparts.

Watch for gusty winds/localized blowing snow for Eastern and Northeastern sections of New Brunswick up to 75km/h. Elsewhere, gusts up to 65km/h is probable.

While snow will be somewhat limited, watch for very strong wind gusts for Nova Scotia near the coast up to 110km/h.

Updated Information: March 13th, 2018 @ 7:00PM ADT

Nor’easter continues to loom for much of the Maritime provinces. High confidence still exists for a significant impact.

Current indications support particularly major impact for Eastern and Northeastern sections (especially) of New Brunswick where 30-40cm of snow could accumulate.

The track of the low will now move more-so slightly off-shore, rather than ‘hug’ the Eastern Seaboard of the USA, thereby allowing for further intensification; milder air will infiltrate the immediate Nova Scotia coast-line, thereby limiting snowfall amounts.

There is some level of confidence that regions along the Greenwood-Kentville (NS) corridor could now receive 15-20cm instead of the 8-15cm as previously posted. However, because confidence is not entirely high we have decided to only inform individuals, rather than updating our map.

Highest confidence continues to exist for NE New Brunswick receiving the highest impact from this system (particularly just N and NW of Moncton, through Bathurst).

Heavy snow will somewhat blanket coastal regions of Nova Scotia initially, however, it is important to note that a transition to rain will occur. While snowfall may total 10-15cm across coastal regions of Nova Scotia, it will melt quickly through the Pre-Dawn and the morning of Wednesday (March 14th).

Continue to return to this post every hour as updated information will be released as the event draws near.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Manitoba

[UPDATED] Intense Snowstorm for Saskatchewan and Manitoba; >1.5 Feet+…

Past Updates:

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #1)

 

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #2)

 

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #3)

A fierce snowstorm will approach the Canadian Border Sunday and linger until Tuesday across Saskatchewan and Manitoba: especially South-Central SK and MB.

A strong low pressure system originating from Colorado will move close to the aforementioned regions and intensify rapidly.

‘Colorado Lows’ are notorious for bringing intense blizzard conditions to the upper Dakotas and into the Prairies, however, they also pose a significant challenge to forecast as a slight directional change can alter the conditions dramatically.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday PM, with heavy snow occurring in the time-frame of Sunday into Monday.

Blowing snow will be of considerable concern (through Tuesday), particularly for the South-Central SK/MB region.

Depending on the final track of the ‘Colorado Low’ some ice-pellets or freezing rain may certainly mix in, as the low may get pulled more Northeastwards bringing a slight warm sector, atmospherically, into several regions.

Updated Information: 03/04/2018 @ 10:30AM

Significant snowfall to target a large swath near the SK/MB border where over 1 foot is likely. Higher elevations, although localized, could approach 2 feet.

Ice pellets and freezing rain are expected to mix with snow in Southern Manitoba and Southern Saskatchewan near the immediate Canadian/USA border, thereby limiting overall accumulations.

Dry air will also be plentiful in some regions of Southern Manitoba, therefore a few regions will likely ‘underachieve’ and may receive 10-15cm rather than 15-25cm.

Winnipeg will receive roughly 15cm of snow +/- 2-5cm. More snow will be present W and NW of the city.

It is important to remain vigilant in regards to this significant snowstorm, especially in what has been a relatively ‘quiet’ winter season across much the Prairies.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation extremely attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

Avoid all unnecessary travel across heavily impacted regions as whiteout conditions will become inevitable.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Departure of Spring; Winter to Make a Fierce Return…


Heavy Snow and Blowing Snow for Parts of Southern Thursday into Friday.

 

As expected, we are watching for the continued evolution of a series of complex forms of energy dispersing from the Northern Prairies & USA, and strengthening near the Great Lakes bringing mostly heavy snow, some freezing rain (near Lake Erie), and some rain (mainly Ex. SW Ontario).

Rain should be almost exclusively present towards Extreme Southwestern Ontario (and begin Thursday morning); freezing rain will be limited to the Northern Lake Erie shoreline (and begin mid Thursday morning); for most other regions, the predominant precipitation will be snow.

Generally, the system will begin for many, in the Afternoon hours, and continue throughout the Evening and Overnight. Lingering light snow is possible for the Friday AM commute contingent alongside further blowing snow.

The evening commute, particularly Western GTA and Southwards along the 401 down to the London region, in addition to the QEW, will be significantly impacted. Conditions will rapidly and exponentially deteriorate through Thursday Mid-Late Evening and Overnight.

Blowing snow will also be of significant concern for many, Thursday into Friday. Due to this weather phenomena being present, it is important to be prepared for brief whiteout conditions, particularly those who will be traveling after sunset on Thursday PM or Pre-Dawn on Friday.

Vorticity, moisture, lift and instability remain very high, thereby allowing this storm to blossom and otherwise overachieve more-so compared to normal.

 

UPDATE 03/01/2018 @ 7:15PM

Snowstorm continues to develop and push towards Southern Ontario as expected.
 
Significant blowing snow with totals reaching what we previously posted prior, is likely.
 
A deformation band from SW of and including London, to Woodstock and NE around the Hamilton area is possible, thereby allowing totals for this swath to be potentially closer to the 20-25cm+ range.
 
There is reasonable certainty along the QEW, either Niagara or somewhere near the region could potentially reach 35-45cm.
 
Watch for significant blowing snow across most of Southern Ontario.
 

The Windsor region will likely overachieve compared to our forecast map above, and as such, that region can expect 15-20cm rather than the 6-12cm originally forecasted.

 

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation extremely attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during wintery conditions. After this recent “warm-up” in prior days, it is crucial to remain extra vigilant for negligent drivers on the road.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather