Residents in Southeastern Saskatchewan should be extra vigilant to the sky as the current risk leads to a threat for 1 or 2 strong Tornadoes (EF2+), large hail (nickel to ‘ping-pong’ size) and damaging winds (100-120km+).
As the cells form mainly just west of Weyburn, quick evolution and a track E to ENE as LP (low precipitative) supercells will be prevalent. These cells are representative of large hail (in this case, ‘ping-pong size), and a risk for a Tornado a little after their original formation as shear levels drop a slightly.
As the cells continue to track into Manitoba, the cells will become more of a ‘line’ just across the border into Virden, Melita and Brandon – winds up to 120km/h+ are the main threat and the Tornado threat will diminish rapidly.
Elsewhere, isolated severe cells over a large swath of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are possible.
Amongst the most interesting parameter (one among many) is the LCL (lifted condensation level: represents the lowest level in which condensation can occur). Generally, the strongest Tornadoes in history are between 300-600m. LCL levels, in this case, are somewhat conducive to Tornadoes of EF2 or stronger nature.
Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.
Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.
Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.
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