Category: Saskatchewan

Manitoba

More Snow to End the Work Week Across the…

A weak system stateside brings another round of snow for Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba Friday.

Wet snow and mixing will begin overnight tonight along the international border. Conditions will quickly deteriorate with accumulating snow beginning early Friday morning.

Weather Model depiction shows light to moderate snowfall at 6am, Friday morning.

Light to moderate snowfall will continue into the the afternoon.

Weather model depiction showing wet snowfall continuing into the afternoon.

Snowfall accumulations between 5-15cm is expected. Winnipeg will be on the mixing line between rain and wet snow by the afternoon. 2-4cm is possible.

UPDATE: the 4-8cm swath may encompass municipalities further North and East in Manitoba. With warmer temperatures, actual ground accumulation will lead to trace amounts.

Projected snowfall totals through Friday.

Prepare for an extended commute and winter travel conditions Friday. 

Manitoba

Early Fall Snowfall Strikes Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Tricky driving associated with an early taste of winter across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba.

Snow begins today in Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, persisting into Wednesday across Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario.

SYNOPSIS:

A boundary separating cold and warm air will descend Southwards across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba through Tuesday allowing temperatures to dip near the freezing mark. A drop in temperatures near freezing or just below is expected along a narrow band of light-moderate snow developing across the Southern Prairies. Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen through Wednesday, as it tracks out of Montana into the Dakotas. 

A narrow band of snowfall situated across Western Saskatchewan will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the evening, spreading across all of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight. Continuing across a narrow corridor of Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario Wednesday.

This will be wet snow event for southwestern Manitoba (including Brandon). Light tree damage due to heavy-wet snow is possible Wednesday. 

EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS:

5-15cm is expected across a narrow swath from Extreme Southern Saskatchewan through Southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will see a cold rain, changing over to wet snow. Timing of the changeover to wet snow is leading to uncertainty, regarding accumulation.

Higher elevation in the Parklands Region, may see higher accumulations near, or exceeding 20cm. Including Riding Mountain National Park and the Dauphin area. 

Alberta

Canada Winter 2018-2019 Forecast: Frigid Prairies and Significant Lake-Effect…

Canada-Wide 2018-2019 Preliminary Forecast.
Finalized Outlook by Christmas!

Frigid Air and Heavy Squalls Loom

The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.

For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.

Key Highlights
– Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
– Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec
– Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow)
– Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow

British Columbia
For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.

Prairies
From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario & Quebec
Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years.
The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.

Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.


Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador
While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.

Territories
The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation


– TCW

Alberta

Environment Canada Issues Frost Advisories in the Prairies

Environment Canada has issued a frost advisory for much of Southern Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. 

Damage to sensitive crops is possible tonight.

SASKATCHEWAN:

Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

A ridge of high pressure building over the prairies will bring clear skies and cold overnight lows to Saskatchewan Tuesday night. Overnight lows are expected to be between 0 and -3 Celsius by Wednesday morning.

Special Weather Statement for Saskatchewan

ALBERTA:

Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

Overnight lows are expected to reach near the freezing mark. Frost is possible overnight.

Take preventative measures to protect frost-sensitive plants and trees.

Frost advisories are issued when temperatures are expected to reach the freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Special Weather Statement for Alberta

Alberta

Tornado & Damaging Hail Threatens the Edmonton Region

A potent severe weather setup is expected today (July 20th 2018) in the Western Prairies. 

Thunderstorm risk map for today. The highest severe threat is highlighted in red – which includes Edmonton in a risk for tennis-ball sized hail and an isolated tornado. 

Environment Canada Discussion (PASPC):

ALBERTA 

A low pressure system developing in Alberta with an associated trough swinging through west-central Saskatchewan in the afternoon will trigger scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threat with these storms will be large hail. In the northwest section, there is a potential for supercells to develop with the potential of producing a tornado. The severe potential will last into the evening but thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight.

SASKATCHEWAN 

A low pressure system developing in Alberta with an associated trough swinging through west-central Saskatchewan in the afternoon will trigger scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threat with these storms will be large hail. In the northwest section, there is a potential for supercells to develop with the potential of producing a tornado. The severe potential will last into the evening but thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight.

Environment Canada’s Thunderstorm Outlook for today July, 20th 2018. Highlighting an extreme risk for severe thunderstorms in the Capital Region.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A low pressure system will form south of Edmonton today with an associated cold front extending southward along the northern foothills and warm front through east-central Alberta and into Saskatchewan. Severe thunderstorms will trigger along the cold front early in the afternoon. They will likely be isolated in nature at first, before becoming a severe line of thunderstorms. The warm front will track through the area in the morning followed by a trough in the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are expected to trigger along the trough in the afternoon. There is the potential for the right conditions to align near and to the east of Edmonton for a tornado to form, with the potential extending into west-central Saskatchewan, albeit, less likely than the risk in Alberta. MLCAPE values are between 1500 to 2200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear values around 30 kt with values up to 40 kt in and around the Capital region in Alberta. RDPS prog tephis are indicating idealized veering hodographs, conducive to tornado development, however, tornado formation in this area will be highly dependent on a few factors: There is the potential that the low level shear will be too much for the marginal CAPE in some areas, essentially shearing the storms apart. As well, on the Saskatchewan side, LCLs are progged to be around 1500 – 2000 m, which is a little high for tornado development, whereas, on the Alberta side, LCLs are progged to be 1000 m, which is more favourable for the formation of tornadoes. In addition, models are indicating the formation of a dryline that will bulge out into the southwestern corner of the Lloydminster region which may also be an area to watch for a tornado to develop in the later afternoon hours.

*Please note this maps and discussions are currently experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canada’s website. 

Please closely monitor Environment Canada alerts today. Take any warnings seriously and seek shelter immediately. 

We will be monitoring the situation attentively. 

Manitoba

Heavy Thunderstorms Expected in Southeastern Prairies

Widespread heavy to severe thunderstorms likely late this evening – continuing into the overnight hours in Southern Manitoba and Southeastern Saskatchewan. 

 

A stationary front this afternoon in Northern Dakota will separate warm, moist air south of the international border, with warm, drier air in Southern Manitoba. Along this front, there is a risk of isolated severe storms in North Dakota this afternoon – staying stateside. 

A deepening system out of Rockies will trigger severe thunderstorms stateside and a second, more significant/widespread risk of thunderstorms this evening/overnight.

Environment Canada (PASPC) Thunderstorm Outlook. Valid 12pm Thursday to 6am Friday. Highlighting the risk for severe thunderstorms. Note: these forecast maps are still experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canadas website. 

A second wave which is forecast to develop late in the day, stateside, is the one we are watching closely. Moist and unstable air creeps across the border into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba this evening. The northern extent of the second wave is expected to cross the international border into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba sometime around midnight. 

There is still some uncertainty regarding evolution and timing of this convective complex. Such complexes also known as MCSs or MCCs – Mesoscale Convective Complex; are notorious for producing intense frequent lightning, flash flooding, and damaging to destructive winds. Large hail is also a possibility, during the initial storm development.

The risk moves out of Southeastern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario pre-dawn Friday into Friday morning.

We will be monitoring the situation attentively into this evening and overnight. 

Alberta

[UPDATED] Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Prairies

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today (Monday June 25th, 2018) and tomorrow (Tuesday June 26th, 2018) in the Prairies.

MONDAY:
A cold front will act as a trigger for severe thunderstorms today in Alberta.

The greatest risk for severe will center itself north of highway 43 and along and west of highway 63. Much of the severe activity looks to be staying south of Fort McMurray.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has placed this region in a “severe” risk on their map. Highlighting the risk for 3-6cm hail. Other threats include damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, and frequent lightning.

Environment Canada forecast map for today – highlighting the severe risk in Alberta. Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage and are not currently operational.

TUESDAY:
A disturbance and associated cold front will move Eastwards out of Alberta tonight into Saskatchewan. The disturbance is expected to deepen as it centres itself over Central Saskatchewan Tuesday Afternoon.

The cold front will act as a trigger for thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba between 2pm and 8pm – West to East.

Some of these storms could turn severe with frequent lightning, large hail, torrential rainfall and strong winds.

Environment Canadas Convective Discussion for Tuesday, June 26th.

Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW

Manitoba

Powerful Supercells for SE Saskatchewan Bring Tornado Risk and…


An associated warm front will set the stage for parameters conducive for strong Tornadoes today for isolated regions in SE Saskatchewan.

Residents in Southeastern Saskatchewan should be extra vigilant to the sky as the current risk leads to a threat for 1 or 2 strong Tornadoes (EF2+), large hail (nickel to ‘ping-pong’ size) and damaging winds (100-120km+).

As the cells form mainly just west of Weyburn, quick evolution and a track E to ENE as LP (low precipitative) supercells will be prevalent. These cells are representative of large hail (in this case, ‘ping-pong size), and a risk for a Tornado a little after their original formation as shear levels drop a slightly.

As the cells continue to track into Manitoba, the cells will become more of a ‘line’ just across the border into Virden, Melita and Brandon – winds up to 120km/h+ are the main threat and the Tornado threat will diminish rapidly.

Elsewhere, isolated severe cells over a large swath of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are possible.

Amongst the most interesting parameter (one among many) is the LCL (lifted condensation level: represents the lowest level in which condensation can occur). Generally, the strongest Tornadoes in history are between 300-600m. LCL levels, in this case, are somewhat conducive to Tornadoes of EF2 or stronger nature.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Manitoba

Risk of Damaging Hail and Tornadoes in the Prairies

Severe thunderstorms possible today (June 14th, 2018) in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk continues across Southern Manitoba throughout the evening and overnight.

A disturbance is forecast to move into Saskatchewan today from Alberta. At the same time, a surface low will be moving northwards from the United States. HIGH levels of energy will build south of an associated warm front.

Although this warm front isn’t expected to make it far north of the border (keeping high amounts of energy stateside), moderate energy amounts, and an environment conductive to severe weather is expected. Including discrete cells and supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h, toonie to golf-ball sized hail, and a risk for 1 or more tornadoe(s). Damaging hail is currently what we are most concerned about.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has highlighted the risk for 3-5cm hail, 90-100km/h wind, and an isolated tornado in their “moderate” severe risk zone (highlighted in orange). Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage.

We will be closely watching an area south of a line from Carlyle to Antler to Souris between 5pm-9pm. An isolated severe threat will continue in southern Manitoba through the evening and overnight, as cells become more linear (MCC – Mesoscale Convective Complex) – increasing a chance for damaging winds, torrential rainfall, hail and frequent lightning.

– TCW