Category: Quebec

New Brunswick

Mixed Precipitation for Eastern Canada & First Appreciable Snowfall…

A system developing in the Southeastern United States will track up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, becoming a weather story across Eastern Canada.

SYNOPSIS:

A developing coastal system will bring a wintery mix across Southern Ontario, Quebec, and Northern New Brunswick. 

A boundary will form in Southern Ontario between a cold & dry high-pressure system, and moist air arriving from the Southeast. Colder air will overspread Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec Saturday, owing to a cold Northeasterly wind. Concurrently, a large area of precipitation will push north into Southern Quebec and Southern Ontario.

Snow, mixing, rain and freezing rain is expected from Saturday morning to Sunday evening. Flurries will continue through Monday.

Across, Nova Scotia, PEI and much of New Brunswick will see primarily rain. Although, Northern New Brunswick could remain as a mix or snow depending on the track of the developing system.

WPC forecasted fronts & precipitation types. Valid Friday evening.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO:

Many residents East of Highway 6 and across the GTA have started the day with moderate wet snow.

A cold northeasterly wind will reinforce colder air by Saturday evening. Mixing or rain-showers will transition into a wintery mix of wet snow & ice pellets east of Highway 6, along/north of highway 407/7. Continuing through much of Central and Eastern Ontario (away from the lake shore). A few wet centimetres is possible. Especially for municipalities at higher elevation South and East of Georgian Bay. Please plan accordingly, as conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday.

MARITIMES: Strong Winds & Heavy Rainfall

This system will be a rain and wind story across much of the Maritimes. The strongest winds, with gusts between 80-90km/h, will be located across the Bay of Fundy. Elsewhere winds across much of Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick are expected to be gusting between 50-70km/h Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts between 20-50mm is expected by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rain falling in Southern New Brunswick and coastal Nova Scotia. Across Northern New Brunswick, a period of snow and mixing may persist into the overnight. 

Forecast precipitation type & accumulation.

QUEBEC:

Flurries will begin north of the St. Lawrence Saturday evening. Montreal, and the Eastern Townships will likely changeover to rain late Saturday evening/overnight, with the arrival of warmer air. 

For regions north of the St. Lawrence, this will be a snow and ice story. Stay tuned to further forecasts Saturday night through Sunday morning, this region could see a 5-8 hour window for freezing rain.

Model depiction showing precipitation types late-evening Saturday, continuing overnight.


Quebec

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Pushes East into Quebec

A strong cold front will act as a trigger for isolated severe thunderstorms across the Eastern Townships and Southeastern Quebec Wednesday. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall giving 25-50mm of rain in a short duration, frequent lightning and isolated supercell(s) are risk factors with these storms.

Thunderstorms may track into Northern New Brunswick bringing heavy rainfall and lightning as they begin to weaken and become elevated. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

A developing area of low-pressure will track out of Northeastern Ontario into Quebec Wednesday, deepening rapidly. An area of height-falls & falling atmospheric pressure will overspread the warm sector, ahead of a seasonably sharp cold front. Temperatures will rise into the mid-20s with dew-points nearing 20c. Pockets of 1500J/kg of CAPE should develop across the warm sector. Largely unfavourable lapse rates will be compensated by a strong tendency for ascent. 65 knot, 500mb flow will overspread the Eastern Townships & Southeastern Quebec – ahead of an amplified, positively tilted trough. A modest low-level jet should be sufficient for moisture transport across the warm sector, and a damaging wind threat. Speed-shear and wind shear will be sufficient enough to sustain long-lived updrafts – well-tilted updrafts capable of rotating. A threat for stronger bowing-linear segments or super-cells exists between 1-5pm. Additional risks, include torrential downpours, frequent lightning and hail in the stronger updrafts.

Timing of the cold front and pre-frontal clearing will be important determining factors considering how severe thunderstorms will be. 

Ontario

Another Round of Severe Weather Targets Southern Ontario &…

Monday will be a pleasant seasonal day, dominated by high pressure and brilliant sunshine – across Southern Ontario & Quebec.

Wet, humid and stormy conditions start the week, with a risk of thunderstorms. Find out when and where.

SYNOPSIS:

Cloud, spotty showers, steady rainfall and humidity will make a return to Southwestern Ontario as early as tonight, with a warm front pushing northwards. Overspreading, the rest of Southern Ontario and Extreme Southern Quebec by Tuesday Morning.

Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen along the Manitoba/Ontario border as it tracks towards Hudson Bay. 15-30mm of rainfall is expected in Northwestern Ontario. With wet snow mixing in across far Northern sections. 

2 WAVES OF PRECIPITATION

The first wave of precipitation will arrive overnight tonight into Tuesday morning across Southern Ontario, moving into Quebec by the morning – ending early afternoon. Some embedded heavy-downpours is expended in a swath from the shores of Lake Erie to Niagara. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate rainfall and predominantly cloudy, warm and humid conditions. Dry slot arrives in the late morning to afternoon.

We will be watching Southwestern Ontario closely Tuesday, as any clearing could further destabilize the atmosphere increasing the risk of evening thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

SECOND WAVE; RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Associated with a sharp cold front – along a developing strong area of low-pressure forecast to deepen as it tracks through Northeastern Ontario and Quebec.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday morning from East of Georgian Bay through Southwest Ontario. Isolated severe storms are possible. Bringing isolated strong wind gusts and heavy downpours. 

SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC

A risk of isolated severe thunderstorms develops for Extreme Eastern Ontario and Southeastern Quebec late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, ahead of a sharp cold front. The primary risk will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. Isolated supercell(s) cannot be ruled out in Southeastern Quebec, but the risk will largely depend on timing & clearing.

GUSTY WINDS

Gusty southwesterly winds of 40-60km/h will overspread the risk area Tuesday. Becoming northwesterly through Wednesday. The strongest wind gusts of 60-70km/h will remain draped across Central Quebec and Nova Scotia.

Alberta

Canada Winter 2018-2019 Forecast: Frigid Prairies and Significant Lake-Effect…

Canada-Wide 2018-2019 Preliminary Forecast.
Finalized Outlook by Christmas!

Frigid Air and Heavy Squalls Loom

The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.

For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.

Key Highlights
– Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
– Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec
– Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow)
– Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow

British Columbia
For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.

Prairies
From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario & Quebec
Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years.
The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.

Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.


Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador
While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.

Territories
The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation


– TCW

Ontario

Potent System: Severe Thunderstorms & Pattern Change for Ontario…

[UPDATED] A strong fall-like system will track across Ontario and Quebec Friday, bringing a risk of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and a pattern change is expected. Find out where.

Through the day Thursday, an area of low-pressure will deepen as it tracks from the Midwest into Northeastern Ontario, Friday morning. The low will mature as it tracks into Quebec by Friday afternoon.

A warm front, associated with the seasonably-deep low will push north across Ontario and Quebec Thursday morning into Friday. Concurrently, temperatures will soar into the high-20s Friday afternoon across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec (near the border). Increasing dew-points will lead to muggy conditions feeling into the mid-30s.

Instability, very-strong upper-level winds, wind-shear, and marginal energy will lead to severe thunderstorms Friday. Ahead of a vigorous cold front, and strong upper-level trough where heights will be falling.

RISK & COVERAGE

The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms in Ontario will stretch from Central Ontario to Eastern Ontario. Coverage will be more isolated in Ontario than Quebec. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Upscale growth into a squall-line bringing straight-line winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning is possible.

In Quebec, atmospheric energy & cooler temperatures will be less favorable than Southern Ontario, but better forcing, shear, and instability will lead to isolated-severe thunderstorms. Risks include damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. This will include the risk of supercells. The strongest risk will largely affect rural, unpopulated municipalities.

WIND & HEAVY RAINFALL

Regardless of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will be strong across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec with this fall-like system. Widespread gusts between 50-80km is expected across a large swath of Ontario and Quebec, preceding the cold front and after its passage.

UPDATE: latest model guidance is suggesting that localized wind gusts of 90-100km will impact Ontario and much of Quebec.

30-50mm of rainfall is expected along a swath East of Lake Superior through Northeastern Ontario.

PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL

The passage of the cold front will usher is much cooler and drier conditions by Friday night. Temperatures will struggle to get into the mid-teens by the weekend. A hard freeze is looking probable across Northern Quebec and Northern Ontario.

Ontario

Isolated Severe Storms Slice Humidity in Ontario & Quebec

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the lower half of Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec today (July 2nd, 2018).

A weak cold front will slowly track across Southern ON/SQUE today acting as a trigger for thunderstorms. The frontal passage is not expected to offer much relief from the heat, but will lower humidity to more comfortable levels tonight and Tuesday.

The primary risk with these thunderstorms will be torrential rainfall. Due to slow movement of the frontal passage some thunderstorms may “train” or, regenerate over the same region bringing locally 30-50mm in a short period of time. Additionally, isolated damaging winds are possible – primarily in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Quebec where the greatest risk for severe exists. Small hail between pea and dime size is possible in the more robust updrafts across the entire isolated severe risk zone.

The timing for storm development today, will be between 11am-6pm. We have highlighted localized municipalities – stretching from the Golden Horseshoe into Eastern Ontario in a isolated severe threat.

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Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW

Ontario

[UPDATED] – Historic Weekend Ice-Storm and Strong Wind Gusts…


A strengthening, and ultimately a strong low pressure system from the Central Plains of the USA will approach Ontario and Quebec this weekend and stall as strong High Pressure in Northern Canada will force the low to become incredibly stagnant over the regions. There will be breaks in the precipitation at times [and a couple pulses of significant moisture, especially Sunday], but overall, the ‘quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)’, or measurable total precipitation will be high from Saturday through Monday.

It is important to note that this storm will have EXTREMELY tight gradients between precipitation types and amounts (and hence, temperature). One region to the next in as little as 20 or 30 kilometers could receive drastically different amounts of snow, ice-pellets, and/or freezing rain. The difference between -1 and +1 could pose significant changes in traveling conditions for residents across ON/QC.

Importantly, regions who receive ice-pellets should note that the water content for snow and ice-pellets are drastically different. While snow is, on average, 10:1, ice-pellets are typically 2 or 3:1. This means, that 20-30mm worth of ice-pellets will “look” drastically different than 20-30cm of snow. On our forecast map, ice precipitation totals are displayed in mm. Please note that this is the equivalent amount of moisture that will fall as ice pellets. If 25mm falls – 75mm worth of ice pellets would accumulate; 3:1 ratio.

What to Expect

1) Heaviest Snow Region: Colder air will invade much of this region leading to mostly exclusively heavy snow. Some snow will occur Saturday/Monday; significant snow through Sunday.

2) Mostly Heavy Snow Region: Colder air will also invade much of this region. Most impacts through Sunday and residual on Monday.

3) DRY-SLOT. Some of: Snow/Ice/Rain Region: There appears to be somewhat of a dry-slot that will force itself within the large pulses of moisture – one across Northern Ontario – one across Southern Ontario. This dry-slot appears to encompass a large swath. However, while impacts will be reduced, they will still exist. This region can expect between 5-10cm of snow (locally up to 15cm), and a mixture of 5-10mm of ice precipitation in the form of ice and/or ice-pellets. Regions around Parry Sound and east will likely receive more freezing rain (than snow), while regions around Ottawa will receive more snow (than ice). It is possible, that regions just south of Ottawa could receive ~15cm. Ottawa itself is likely to receive closer to ~10cm and brief ice or ice pellets.

4) Wintry Mix Zone Region: Much of this region will receive snow, ice-pellets and light freezing rain. The colder air appears to be digging in more and more, and as such, freezing rain will likely no longer be a large threat (but will still lightly mix within at times). Regions such as Wiarton, Owen Sound, Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Collingwood, Meaford, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst, Peterborough, Bancroft and Muskoka are more likely to receive snow (>15cm); ice pellets (>15mm) for regions a little south of a line from Owen Sound east to Barrie and due east to Brockville.

5) Ice-Pellets [possibly Snow] and Ice Region #1: The Northern Lake Ontario shoreline is expected to receive a mixture of heavy ice-pellets and some ice. There is some potential that snow alongside ice-pellets could fall thereby reducing ice-pellet amount and increasing snowfall amounts in the 10-20cm range (lesser snow and more ice-pellets closer to the Western and Central Lake Ontario shoreline, such as: Ajax, Oshawa and Pickering; more ice for Eastern Lake Ontario sections such as Kingston and Brockville).

6) Ice Pellets [possibly Snow] and Ice Region #2: This region in Southern Ontario is expected to receive a mixture of ice-pellets and ice. There is some potential that snow alongside ice-pellets could fall thereby reducing ice-pellet amount and increasing snowfall amounts in the 5-15cm range (the lesser snow and more ice-pellets will be towards the Lake Huron shore-line, such as Goderich – higher amounts of snow for regions closer to Owen Sound and Barrie, than regions further away).

7) Highest ICE STORM Threat Region: This region continues to represent the highest potential for significant ice. Widespread 25mm is likely with some evidence suggesting 30mm or more by late Sunday.

8) High ICE STORM Threat Region: This region continues to represent a reasonably high potential for significant ice. Widespread 20mm is likely with some evidence suggesting closer to 25mm.

9) Moderate ICE STORM Threat Region: This region now shows some risk of an ice-storm. Early rainfall on Saturday may keep the ground warm enough where impacts for much of Saturday will be somewhat limited until early to mid evening. Impacts however by the end of Sunday could still pose a significant impact/risk. Depending on the cold air, it is possible this region may extend due west along the 402 through Komoka, Strathroy, Watford, Petrolia and Sarnia.

10) Risk of Non-Severe Thundershowers Region: Extreme SW Ontario is expected to receive mostly rain. Non-severe thundershowers are indeed also possible early Saturday. Expect a heavy and soaking rain. Very brief or slight ice is possible (1-3mm).

11) Critical Zone – Heavy Rain and Ice vs. Location Region: The Toronto region represents one of the hardest forecasts in this entire ‘storm’. Toronto will be extremely location dependent. People who live near the lake-shore will likely experience mostly rain with negligible amounts of ice. However, within the city there could be roughly 5-10mm of ice, and regions outside the city, 10mm+ of ice is possible.

This is due to a strong easterly and stiff (but shallow) wind off Lake Ontario which will create a small plume of far less freezing rain than surrounding counterparts.

[UPDATED] Which Regions are most likely to be Hit the Hardest from Ice? How Much?

25mm or more of accretion is expected.

St. Thomas
London,
Woodstock
St. Mary’s
Ingersoll
Brantford
Port Dover
Tilsonburg
Stratford
Mitchell

[UPDATED] In Southern Ontario which Regions are most likely to Receive the most Snow? How much?

Snowfall of 20-30cm, locally higher.

Owen Sound
Wiarton
Barrie
Orillia
Collingwood
Meaford
Gravenhurst
Minden
Haliburton
Angus
Bancroft
Whitney

City of Toronto – A ‘Tough Call’

For right in the City of Toronto, it is expected that a strong easterly wind will result in a slightly milder air-mass at the surface. As such, we at TCW believe the city itself should escape some of the ice, in comparison to regions further (although slightly outside) the city.

Therefore, we expect Toronto to receive mostly rain [especially the lake-shore] – perhaps still some freezing rain at times, late Saturday into early Sunday — however, rain will likely infiltrate before and after any freezing rain, thereby melting most of the ice that happens to fall and/or stick to the surrounding environment.

Nearby cities such as Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Ajax, Bowmanville, etc, are expected to see some ice. The closer one is directly to Toronto itself, the greater chance of more rain, and less ice. Once you reach roughly 10-15km outside of Toronto however, it is expected ice will be of concern.

Notice: QEW Region (Niagara, St. Catharines. Welland, etc)

This region is also an important place of interest due to again, slight warming from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This means regions very close to Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (within 10km of the shorelines or less) will receive 15-20% less ice than regions further away. However, irrespective of proximity towards the lake-shores, it is expected still, significant icing will occur.

How Bad Will This “Ice-Storm” Be?

This ice-storm has the potential to be significant. While it may be slightly less significant than if this event occurred in the typical winter months (due to stronger April diurnal heating in addition to a wet ground from late Fri to early Sat), it will still pose a significant threat to travel, trees and could lead to widespread and significant power-outages.

When Will Most of the Icing Occur?

Regardless of location, even regions who receive lesser ice accretions, the most widepsread, and heaviest icing will occur between the late morning or early to mid afternoon hours on Saturday, through Sunday. Even more specifically, most of the heaviest freezing rain will occur early to mid Sunday morning.

Monday Temperatures

Many regions are expected to transition to rain of some magnitude during Monday (slowly beginning later on Sunday).

Northern Ontario is expected to continue with further snow however, therefore temperatures although may climb above 0C, relatively humidity will be quite low and moisture will be quite high, therefore, regions will continue with snow.

On Monday Night, snow (3-7cm) may usher in towards the highlands and regions such as Shelburne and north of Toronto as cooler air returns.

Watch for widespread gusty winds for many regions up to 80km/h.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

New Brunswick

April Snow Brings May Flowers? Hmm…


The feisty Colorado Low inevitably set to move into Ontario will impact Quebec, the Maritimes and Newfoundland with mostly snow [of varying intensities], Wednesday PM into Thursday PM – lingering until Friday AM.

Snow and Ice

Beginning late Wednesday, snow will quickly spread across Quebec and bring alongside, heavy accumulating snow, particularly for the Northeastern Quebec Suburbs where 30cm or more could potentially fall. For Quebec City, 20-30cm is probable.

For New Brunswick, there will be a drastic and sharp transition line between heavy snow, freezing rain and rain. Currently, regions around the Bathurst region SW of a line to just south of Edmundston could receive significant freezing rain (10-15mm), thereby an inverse relationship will form: higher ice accretion, and lower snow accumulations. Elsewhere across New Brunswick, snowfall amounts will become significantly reduced the further south one travels (and higher probability of rain).

Across Newfoundland, light snow will encompass much of the province, however, there is reasonable certainty sea-effect enhancement will provide further snowfall for regions such as Corner Brook and Stephenville.

Rain

Nova Scotia, most of PEI, Cape Breton and parts of New Brunswick will experience rain. For most regions, the rain will be a non-factor, however, Southern and South-Central regions of New Brunswick, could receive 30-45mm of Rain, locally near 50mm.

Widespread gusty winds will be a noteworthy concern.

When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

[UPDATED 04/03/2018] Intense April Storm: Snow, Thunderstorms and Powerful…


An incoming system will bring a mixed-bag of wet snow, heavy accumulating snow, rain and thunderstorms across Southern, Central, Eastern and Northern Ontario, as well as, Quebec.

Tuesday
Through the overnight Monday, an arctic front will descend south coalescing with a strengthening area of low-pressure tracking through the Midwest United States. Temperatures will be falling across Northeastern Ontario, the Nickel Belt, Manitoulin Island, and, the Bruce Peninsula with the passage of the cold front. Light snowfall will begin in the aforementioned regions overnight Monday into Tuesday. Continuing through the day Tuesday – lasting into Wednesday. Total accumulation will range from 15-25cm by Wednesday evening.

Tuesday Thunderstorm and Rainfall Risk: Southwestern Ontario
An associated warm front looks to be staying south of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon, lessening the arrival of a warmer airmass into extreme Southwestern Ontario. Nevertheless, the track of the low will bring rainfall and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday evening. Primary threats include embedded heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 60-80km/h.

A cloudy and wet day is expected cross Southern Ontario. Generally, 15-25mm of rainfall is expected across a large swath of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Locally higher amounts of 20-40mm is expected in extreme Southwest Ontario (with local thunderstorms) and a parts of Eastern Ontario.

Wednesday
The strengthening area of low-pressure will continue on a north-east trajectory towards Quebec Wednesday. The passage of the low will be accompanied by colder air and powerful wind gusts across Southern Ontario. Gusts between 70-90km are expected Wednesday.

Residual snowfall will continue in parts of Northeast Ontario. Some Lake effect flurries may impact the snow-belts.

What’s to come?
Cold temperatures will continue through the first week of April, with continuing below seasonal temperatures through the 2nd and 3rd week of April. There is some confidence continued snow-systems will embed themselves across the region, with the potential for snow reaching as far south as the 401 corridor.

When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather