Category: Prince Edward Island

New Brunswick

Mixed Precipitation for Eastern Canada & First Appreciable Snowfall…

A system developing in the Southeastern United States will track up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, becoming a weather story across Eastern Canada.

SYNOPSIS:

A developing coastal system will bring a wintery mix across Southern Ontario, Quebec, and Northern New Brunswick. 

A boundary will form in Southern Ontario between a cold & dry high-pressure system, and moist air arriving from the Southeast. Colder air will overspread Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec Saturday, owing to a cold Northeasterly wind. Concurrently, a large area of precipitation will push north into Southern Quebec and Southern Ontario.

Snow, mixing, rain and freezing rain is expected from Saturday morning to Sunday evening. Flurries will continue through Monday.

Across, Nova Scotia, PEI and much of New Brunswick will see primarily rain. Although, Northern New Brunswick could remain as a mix or snow depending on the track of the developing system.

WPC forecasted fronts & precipitation types. Valid Friday evening.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO:

Many residents East of Highway 6 and across the GTA have started the day with moderate wet snow.

A cold northeasterly wind will reinforce colder air by Saturday evening. Mixing or rain-showers will transition into a wintery mix of wet snow & ice pellets east of Highway 6, along/north of highway 407/7. Continuing through much of Central and Eastern Ontario (away from the lake shore). A few wet centimetres is possible. Especially for municipalities at higher elevation South and East of Georgian Bay. Please plan accordingly, as conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday.

MARITIMES: Strong Winds & Heavy Rainfall

This system will be a rain and wind story across much of the Maritimes. The strongest winds, with gusts between 80-90km/h, will be located across the Bay of Fundy. Elsewhere winds across much of Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick are expected to be gusting between 50-70km/h Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts between 20-50mm is expected by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rain falling in Southern New Brunswick and coastal Nova Scotia. Across Northern New Brunswick, a period of snow and mixing may persist into the overnight. 

Forecast precipitation type & accumulation.

QUEBEC:

Flurries will begin north of the St. Lawrence Saturday evening. Montreal, and the Eastern Townships will likely changeover to rain late Saturday evening/overnight, with the arrival of warmer air. 

For regions north of the St. Lawrence, this will be a snow and ice story. Stay tuned to further forecasts Saturday night through Sunday morning, this region could see a 5-8 hour window for freezing rain.

Model depiction showing precipitation types late-evening Saturday, continuing overnight.


Alberta

Canada Winter 2018-2019 Forecast: Frigid Prairies and Significant Lake-Effect…

Canada-Wide 2018-2019 Preliminary Forecast.
Finalized Outlook by Christmas!

Frigid Air and Heavy Squalls Loom

The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.

For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.

Key Highlights
– Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
– Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec
– Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow)
– Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow

British Columbia
For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.

Prairies
From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario & Quebec
Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years.
The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.

Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.


Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador
While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.

Territories
The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation


– TCW

Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW

New Brunswick

[FINAL UPDATE – 04/07 @ 6:15PM] Snowstorm Looms for…


Here we go again – a significant snowstorm for Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and Western Newfoundland. As much as 35cm or locally more in the most impacted regions.

Energy off the East Coast of the USA will be set to sweep off-shore and close to Nova Scotia and Western Newfoundland.

Key Updates as of 04/07 @ 6:15PM

Confidence is quite high that a significant snowstorm will move into the region of Atlantic Canada, and target most of Nova Scotia (including Cape Breton), eastern PEI, and Newfoundland (mainly Western Newfoundland).

Overall snowfall totals for impacted regions (as per our map above) can be expected in a range of 15-25cm. We at TCW expect regions 10-20km inland from the Western Newfoundland shoreline as well as 5-10km inland from the NW Cape Breton shoreline to reach 25-40cm of snow.

New Brunswick will be largely non-impacted from this system.

SW Nova Scotia will experience a snow/rain mix.

Central Newfoundland will experience a mix of snow and prolonged light freezing rain, while eastern Newfoundland will experience a wet snow/rain/light freezing rain mix.

**Note: There is some potential some localized regions in south-central and central Newfoundland (roughly 20km N/NW of Burgeo and extending to Grand-Falls-Windsor, to receive around 10-15cm of snow as well as 8-15mm of freezing rain). Elsewhere, light freezing rain risks exists, but the accretion will be half or less than the aforementioned accretion.

Saturday
Conditions can colloquially be phrased as “calm before the storm”, with relatively calm conditions.
Conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate for SW Nova Scotia very late Saturday Night.

Sunday
Conditions will deteriorate through much of Nova Scotia by the pre-dawn.
Conditions will deteriorate through much of PEI and Cape Breton by the afternoon.

Sunday Evening (6pm MST)
Conditions should improve (progressively) for most of the Maritimes and conditions will deteriorate across Newfoundland.

Monday
Conditions will slowly improve all-together for the Maritimes.

Tuesday
Conditions will slowly improve all-together for Newfoundland.

Watch for gusty winds and local blowing snow.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

New Brunswick

April Snow Brings May Flowers? Hmm…


The feisty Colorado Low inevitably set to move into Ontario will impact Quebec, the Maritimes and Newfoundland with mostly snow [of varying intensities], Wednesday PM into Thursday PM – lingering until Friday AM.

Snow and Ice

Beginning late Wednesday, snow will quickly spread across Quebec and bring alongside, heavy accumulating snow, particularly for the Northeastern Quebec Suburbs where 30cm or more could potentially fall. For Quebec City, 20-30cm is probable.

For New Brunswick, there will be a drastic and sharp transition line between heavy snow, freezing rain and rain. Currently, regions around the Bathurst region SW of a line to just south of Edmundston could receive significant freezing rain (10-15mm), thereby an inverse relationship will form: higher ice accretion, and lower snow accumulations. Elsewhere across New Brunswick, snowfall amounts will become significantly reduced the further south one travels (and higher probability of rain).

Across Newfoundland, light snow will encompass much of the province, however, there is reasonable certainty sea-effect enhancement will provide further snowfall for regions such as Corner Brook and Stephenville.

Rain

Nova Scotia, most of PEI, Cape Breton and parts of New Brunswick will experience rain. For most regions, the rain will be a non-factor, however, Southern and South-Central regions of New Brunswick, could receive 30-45mm of Rain, locally near 50mm.

Widespread gusty winds will be a noteworthy concern.

When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Alberta

Canada Spring and Summer Highlights: Summer to Arrive; Will…



Canada’s Summer Highlights; Spring Temperatures and Spring Precipitation Forecast: From TransCanada Weather

Through careful analysis of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and continental, national and global temperatures, we have formulated and depicted our predictions across the country for Spring and Summer 2018.

Spring

Atlantic Canada
A relatively active storm track across the entire region as listed, will provide ample opportunities for a mixed bag of precipitation for eastern sections, with snow for western sections through late March into early April.

Parts of New Brunswick, PEI, Western Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland and most of Labrador can expect opportunities for snow.

Temperatures will be below seasonal, particularly through early April and slowly begin to moderate from late April into May for all of Atlantic Canada.

Ontario and Quebec
A relatively active storm track will also be present particularly from late March into early April. Opportunities for snow exist, however, temperatures will likely be slightly too mild for significant snow accumulations. However, below seasonal temperatures and slightly above precipitation are expected until mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate particularly later in April and seasonal weather will become more prevalent and consistent in May.

Prairies
The Prairies will continue to remain fairly seasonal this spring with dry conditions at times, particularly later in spring; average precipitation early in the spring.

British Columbia
Much of British Columbia will experience warm surges of Pacific air with an inundation at times, of moisture from Pacific low pressure systems.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of April and May.

Summer

Atlantic Canada
An active storm track at times will provide for soaking rains and isolated severe thunderstorms at times, throughout the summer. This summer will be fairly consistently warm across the entire region with periods of hot and humid weather.

Summer will arrive, but some time will be required.

It is expected that warmth will begin to build into late June through July and August.

Ontario and Quebec
An active storm track will provide surges of heat across the region, particularly in late June through August. Severe weather will make visits at times this summer, however, it is expected the early portion of summer will remain somewhat dry, and slightly cool, with active and a widespread severe risk building from late July into August.

There is reasonable certainty that June will provide some bouts of cooler and drier weather relative to the norm.

Prairies
The Prairies will receive a typical summer; warm with periods of stiffing temperatures, severe thunderstorms and large hail and isolated tornadic risks, particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to be slightly cooler this summer, although not exceptionally cool. Surges of hot and dry weather that typically show through July-September may be somewhat limited this summer, although not non-existent.

Its not all bad news for the BC coast as moisture is expected to be to the north and south.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of June, July and August.

https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

– TCW

New Brunswick

Here We Go Again: Another Nor’easter

Another Nor’easter Targets the Maritimes Thursday; Late Thursday through Friday for Newfoundland.

A relentless parade of Nor’easters continue to track into the aforementioned regions. While amounts will not be entirely substantial due to slightly warmer surface and upper atmospheric temperatures, amounts will still threaten commute and travel times.

The low pressure system will approach from the southwest bringing alongside a widespread swath of snow, however, transitions to rain/wet snow and/or ice pellets will encompass much of the shoreline of Nova Scotia, thereby likely limiting snow.

The heaviest snowfall accumulations will reside in SE New Brunswick and NW Nova Scotia, and PEI, through Thursday; for Newfoundland, the heaviest snow will reside in western sections.

Depending on the exact [and final] track of the Nor’easter, amounts may vary from the listed depictions +/- 5cm.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

New Brunswick

Powerful Nor’easter Looms for the Maritimes; Tempestuous Conditions Inevitable


Past Updates

Nor’easter for the Maritimes.

Significant snowstorm will impact the Maritimes once again: Tuesday and Wednesday time-frame.

A low pressure system moving near the Eastern Seaboard of the United States will target the Maritimes this upcoming work-week. Current indications are now such that a significant snowstorm is probable, particularly for much of New Brunswick and especially the NE corridor of the province.

High confidence exists that this storm will produce a widespread swath of 20-30cm+ across New Brunswick, with slightly lesser amounts along the Bay of Fundy shoreline. Additionally, due to a surge of milder Atlantic air, a mix of snow/rain will lead to less significant amounts for coastal regions of Nova Scotia, Eastern PEI and most of Cape Breton.

While temperatures will be slightly mild at the surface and @ 925mb, further upper atmospheric temperatures are still quite chilly, therefore there is almost a nil chance of freezing rain/ice-pellets.

Subsequently, ‘dry air’ is non-existent in this case at the surface, and moisture will indeed remain high.

Snow ratios will not be exceptionally high, however, based on the current track of the low pressure system, surface temperatures will remain slightly cooler across Eastern and Northeastern New Brunswick, thereby allowing for higher totals than their surrounding counterparts.

Watch for gusty winds/localized blowing snow for Eastern and Northeastern sections of New Brunswick up to 75km/h. Elsewhere, gusts up to 65km/h is probable.

While snow will be somewhat limited, watch for very strong wind gusts for Nova Scotia near the coast up to 110km/h.

Updated Information: March 13th, 2018 @ 7:00PM ADT

Nor’easter continues to loom for much of the Maritime provinces. High confidence still exists for a significant impact.

Current indications support particularly major impact for Eastern and Northeastern sections (especially) of New Brunswick where 30-40cm of snow could accumulate.

The track of the low will now move more-so slightly off-shore, rather than ‘hug’ the Eastern Seaboard of the USA, thereby allowing for further intensification; milder air will infiltrate the immediate Nova Scotia coast-line, thereby limiting snowfall amounts.

There is some level of confidence that regions along the Greenwood-Kentville (NS) corridor could now receive 15-20cm instead of the 8-15cm as previously posted. However, because confidence is not entirely high we have decided to only inform individuals, rather than updating our map.

Highest confidence continues to exist for NE New Brunswick receiving the highest impact from this system (particularly just N and NW of Moncton, through Bathurst).

Heavy snow will somewhat blanket coastal regions of Nova Scotia initially, however, it is important to note that a transition to rain will occur. While snowfall may total 10-15cm across coastal regions of Nova Scotia, it will melt quickly through the Pre-Dawn and the morning of Wednesday (March 14th).

Continue to return to this post every hour as updated information will be released as the event draws near.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

New Brunswick

[UPDATED] Unsettled Pattern Arrives in Eastern Canada

Unsettled week ahead for the Maritimes to Ontario, including Quebec.

A formidable late winter snow storm has dropped impressive snowfall totals across parts of the Canadian Prairies in recent days. The same storm system has weakened and stalled over the Great Lakes, while aiding in the formation of a new surface low that tracked into the Maritimes.

The newly-formed system tracked up the Eastern Seaboard concurrently as a trough sits over the Great Lakes, becoming a weather maker for much of Eastern Canada.

ONTARIO

Predominantly cloudy conditions, with periods of flurries and wet snow continues Thursday and Friday across Southern and Northeastern Ontario. Trace amounts are expected for most, but parts of Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario could see several day totals approach 10-20cm. Actual ground accumulation will be less considering melting and settling.

—-

A more substantial in addition to localized snowfall threat will develop Wednesday morning, spanning parts of southwest Ontario. As a result of moisture enhancement off of the Great Lakes and a stalled trough over the region. A few wet centimetres is likely to accumulate east of Lake Huron. The unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps Friday. 5-15 centimetres of accumulation spanning the work week is expected. Highest totals away from the lakeshore and in regions of higher elevation.

MARITIMES

A moisture-laden system approaching the Bay of Fundy will continue to spread snow and rain across the Maritimes. Moderate snowfall continues to impact central Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick. An additional 3-8cm of wet snow is expected to accumulate today, before this low tracks north. Precipitation will likely end as rain showers as temperatures warm. The heaviest totals from this system will be across a swath of central New Brunswick where 15-20cm is expected.

A second powerful storm system is expected to develop Friday lasting into Sunday. Strong winds gusting 50-70km/h and heavy snowfall amounting to an additional 10-25cm will be a concern.

Snow is expected to begin across Nova Scotia and PEI, transitioning to rain as the warm sector of the storm continues north throughout the day Thursday. Highest accumulations are expected in Cape Breton. Elsewhere, several wet centimetres will fall before a changeover to rainfall. There is still some uncertainties in exact track of this system(s). Once forecast confident increases, we will publish a region specific forecast for the maritimes promptly.

Primarily snowfall is expected in central and northern New Brunswick, with a changeover to rainfall near the Bay of Fundy.

QUEBEC

Flurries and light snowfall continue in Southwestern Quebec. A retrograding coastal low moving west-wards towards the Saint Lawrence river Thursday into Friday morning, will being heavier snow to Southeast Quebec and the Eastern Townships. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 10-20cm range by Friday evening.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather