Category: Ontario

New Brunswick

[UPDATED] Unsettled Pattern Arrives in Eastern Canada

Unsettled week ahead for the Maritimes to Ontario, including Quebec.

A formidable late winter snow storm has dropped impressive snowfall totals across parts of the Canadian Prairies in recent days. The same storm system has weakened and stalled over the Great Lakes, while aiding in the formation of a new surface low that tracked into the Maritimes.

The newly-formed system tracked up the Eastern Seaboard concurrently as a trough sits over the Great Lakes, becoming a weather maker for much of Eastern Canada.

ONTARIO

Predominantly cloudy conditions, with periods of flurries and wet snow continues Thursday and Friday across Southern and Northeastern Ontario. Trace amounts are expected for most, but parts of Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario could see several day totals approach 10-20cm. Actual ground accumulation will be less considering melting and settling.

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A more substantial in addition to localized snowfall threat will develop Wednesday morning, spanning parts of southwest Ontario. As a result of moisture enhancement off of the Great Lakes and a stalled trough over the region. A few wet centimetres is likely to accumulate east of Lake Huron. The unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps Friday. 5-15 centimetres of accumulation spanning the work week is expected. Highest totals away from the lakeshore and in regions of higher elevation.

MARITIMES

A moisture-laden system approaching the Bay of Fundy will continue to spread snow and rain across the Maritimes. Moderate snowfall continues to impact central Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick. An additional 3-8cm of wet snow is expected to accumulate today, before this low tracks north. Precipitation will likely end as rain showers as temperatures warm. The heaviest totals from this system will be across a swath of central New Brunswick where 15-20cm is expected.

A second powerful storm system is expected to develop Friday lasting into Sunday. Strong winds gusting 50-70km/h and heavy snowfall amounting to an additional 10-25cm will be a concern.

Snow is expected to begin across Nova Scotia and PEI, transitioning to rain as the warm sector of the storm continues north throughout the day Thursday. Highest accumulations are expected in Cape Breton. Elsewhere, several wet centimetres will fall before a changeover to rainfall. There is still some uncertainties in exact track of this system(s). Once forecast confident increases, we will publish a region specific forecast for the maritimes promptly.

Primarily snowfall is expected in central and northern New Brunswick, with a changeover to rainfall near the Bay of Fundy.

QUEBEC

Flurries and light snowfall continue in Southwestern Quebec. A retrograding coastal low moving west-wards towards the Saint Lawrence river Thursday into Friday morning, will being heavier snow to Southeast Quebec and the Eastern Townships. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 10-20cm range by Friday evening.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.

Ontario

Departure of Spring; Winter to Make a Fierce Return…


Heavy Snow and Blowing Snow for Parts of Southern Thursday into Friday.

 

As expected, we are watching for the continued evolution of a series of complex forms of energy dispersing from the Northern Prairies & USA, and strengthening near the Great Lakes bringing mostly heavy snow, some freezing rain (near Lake Erie), and some rain (mainly Ex. SW Ontario).

Rain should be almost exclusively present towards Extreme Southwestern Ontario (and begin Thursday morning); freezing rain will be limited to the Northern Lake Erie shoreline (and begin mid Thursday morning); for most other regions, the predominant precipitation will be snow.

Generally, the system will begin for many, in the Afternoon hours, and continue throughout the Evening and Overnight. Lingering light snow is possible for the Friday AM commute contingent alongside further blowing snow.

The evening commute, particularly Western GTA and Southwards along the 401 down to the London region, in addition to the QEW, will be significantly impacted. Conditions will rapidly and exponentially deteriorate through Thursday Mid-Late Evening and Overnight.

Blowing snow will also be of significant concern for many, Thursday into Friday. Due to this weather phenomena being present, it is important to be prepared for brief whiteout conditions, particularly those who will be traveling after sunset on Thursday PM or Pre-Dawn on Friday.

Vorticity, moisture, lift and instability remain very high, thereby allowing this storm to blossom and otherwise overachieve more-so compared to normal.

 

UPDATE 03/01/2018 @ 7:15PM

Snowstorm continues to develop and push towards Southern Ontario as expected.
 
Significant blowing snow with totals reaching what we previously posted prior, is likely.
 
A deformation band from SW of and including London, to Woodstock and NE around the Hamilton area is possible, thereby allowing totals for this swath to be potentially closer to the 20-25cm+ range.
 
There is reasonable certainty along the QEW, either Niagara or somewhere near the region could potentially reach 35-45cm.
 
Watch for significant blowing snow across most of Southern Ontario.
 

The Windsor region will likely overachieve compared to our forecast map above, and as such, that region can expect 15-20cm rather than the 6-12cm originally forecasted.

 

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation extremely attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during wintery conditions. After this recent “warm-up” in prior days, it is crucial to remain extra vigilant for negligent drivers on the road.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Above Seasonal and Abundant Sunshine for Southern Ontario


An area of high pressure south of the border is expected to move eastwards on Monday and cement its presence until Wednesday, thereby keeping tempestuous weather at bay.

Beginning Monday, February 26th, abundant sunshine is expected to spread and flourish across the entire region giving residents a “taste” of spring weather.

While temperatures on Monday are expected to reach the upper single-digits, on Tuesday and Wednesday, residents can welcome temperatures into the low-teens. On the contrary, temperatures will be sliced in half on Thursday and thereafter for the foreseeable future.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Monday.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Tuesday [and Wednesday].

This short period of above seasonal temperatures are expected to cause further concern regarding relevant regions impacted by flooding. It is important to remain diligent and refrain from close presence near high rivers and fast-moving waters.

Now, get outside and lets welcome these temperatures together!

Ontario

Snow, Freezing Rain and Thundershowers for Ontario and Quebec

A Low Pressure System from Missouri Targets Ontario and Quebec This Weekend.

A quick moving Low Pressure System from Missouri will track and swing through Ontario and Quebec giving bountiful types of precipitation.

As a result of its fairly quick speed, precipitation amounts will not be overly significant, but, still pose a reasonable inconvenience depending on the region.

The heaviest snowfall will be due East of Lake Superior with moderate accumulations elsewhere across Northern/Northwestern Ontario and much of Quebec.

Parts of Ontario will be inundated with patchy freezing rain, however, significant accretions are not expected at this time.

Southern Ontario, along the 401 corridor and East to the Niagara region, can expect 10-20mm of rain with embedded non-severe thundershowers and gusty winds up to 60-75km/h.

Please adjust your driving accordingly based on the current driving conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Evacuation Ordered for Brantford, ON

A parade of weather systems in combination with several factors, including record warmth, frozen ground/snowmelt, and ice-jams, have led to flooding along riverside watersheds across Southern Ontario.

The City of Brantford has been hit especially hard this morning, where a State of Emergency has been issued.

Evacuation Order

City officials have issued Evacuation Orders for any street identified in the following floodplain: Foster, Cayuga, Aberdeen, Strathcona, Pontiac, Tecumseh, Ontario, Port, Eagle Ave, Robertson, Dover and Baldwin.

Residents are urged to evacuate these areas of the city until water levels recede and the Evacuation Order is lifted.

High Water Levels Across Much Of Southern Ontario

All communities along river-side watersheds and their tributaries throughout Southern Ontario, are urged to monitor local watches, warnings and statements from their local Conservation Authority. Flood warnings remain in affect for many watersheds who are dealing with flood conditions.

Flood Statements: https://www.ontario.ca/law-and-safety/flood-forecasting-and-warning-program

The flood concern is expected to peak early this afternoon (Wednesday), when cooler temperatures and drier air arrives. A brief period of freezing rain north of the GTA, will make efforts challenging for cleanup crews who are working tirelessly pumping water to ease residential flooding.

What Caused The Flooding?

A persistent High pressure ridge off the coast of Bermuda is responsible for channeling Gulf moisture and record warmth that led to this early “spring like” flooding event across Southern Ontario.

Ontario

Canadian Coast Guard Dispatched Amid Flood Concerns

Canadian Coast Guard vessel Griffon has been dispatched to Lake Erie and the mouth of the Grand River amid flooding concerns.

The CCGS Griffon will be breaking up ice jams near Port Maitland, ON and the mouth of the Grand River today, where is connects to Lake Erie. This is an effort to reduce flood risk due to ice restriction of water as it passes down stream today through Wednesday.

Communities along the Grand River and its tributaries should pay close attention to local statements and updated warnings from the Conservation Authority. A flood warning remains in effect for the entire watershed.

The flood concern is expected to peak Wednesday morning, before cooler temperatures and mixed precipitation arrives.

Total rainfall amounts of 40-60mm is expected. Locally higher amounts are expected east of Lake Huron.

Flood Statements: https://www.ontario.ca/law-and-safety/flood-forecasting-and-warning-program

Read More about Ice Jams: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_dam

Ontario

Drenching Rain for Southern Ontario: Localized Flooding

[UPDATED]

A series of moisture-laden impulse waves that will provide a strangle-hold through the Southern and Central USA states will push Northeastwards across Southern Ontario beginning Monday and linger through Wednesday.

Several days of moderate rainfall will tally up the precipitation totals to respectable amounts.

Due to many regions still having a more than measurable snow depth, localized flooding will be a widespread concern.

Is it all bad news? Absolutely not! Warm temperatures will surge through much of the aforementioned regions and potentially ‘tickle’ record-breaking on Tuesday as temperatures surpass the teens.

What’s to come afterwards? Temperatures will cool off, however, there is no significant frigid or arctic air in the forecast until at-least March, and confidence and certainty is somewhat low at this time.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Manitoba

Dangerous Windchills for Manitoba and NW Ontario

A brief period of dangerous and life-threatening Windchills are inevitable across Central and Northern Manitoba, as well as, Northwestern Ontario.

A fierce Arctic air-mass will funnel extremely cold air from ‘way-up’ in Northern Canada down to the aforementioned regions.

Parts of Central Manitoba could experience Windchills hovering near -60C. Elsewhere, Windchills in the -50 to -55C range are probable.

It is extremely important residents bundle-up all exposed skin as frostbite can occur in under 2 minutes in these uninhabitable conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Soaking Rain For Ontario and Quebec

A series of moisture-laden impulse waves that will provide a strangle-hold through the Southern and Central USA states will push Northeastwards across Southern Ontario, Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec beginning Monday and lingering into Thursday.

Several days of moderate rainfall will tally up the precipitation totals to respectable amounts; ranging from 20-80mm based on the location as depicted on our map.

Due to many regions still having a more than measurable snow depth, localized flooding will be a widespread concern, particularly across ‘Cottage Country’, Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec.
For regions across Southern Ontario, many regions are still dealing with isolated and ‘patchy’ ice from last weekends ice accretion: watch for localized pooling.

While some models are suggesting 100-125mm is possible over a ~60 hour interval for some regions near Lake Huron and Lake Erie, this is likely a slight over-achievement and we expect the upper threshold of totals to be more in-line with 80mm, with many populated locales receiving 40-65mm.

Is it all bad news? Absolutely not! Warm temperatures will surge through much of the aforementioned regions and potentially ‘tickle’ record-breaking on Tuesday as temperatures surpass the teens.

What’s to come afterwards? Temperatures will cool off, however, there is no significant frigid or arctic air in the forecast until at-least March, and confidence and certainty is somewhat low at this time.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather