Category: Ontario


More Snow on the Way; Big Pattern Change Coming

More snow is set to sweep through most of Ontario Thursday Night into Friday, with the heaviest accumulations near Lake Erie and the traditional 401 corridor, including several major cities.

The tempestuous conditions that recently caused headaches across Southern Ontario bringing thunderstorms, heavy lake-effect flurries and winds will be superseded by further accumulating snow one more time this year.

The recent Colorado Low led to several accidents, including a closure on WB 401 near Kitchener-Waterloo and a significant 50 car pile-up on HWY 400 near Barrie.

The two images below show the hazardous conditions on HWY 400 near Barrie today, Wednesday, April 4th.

Thursday Night
Conditions will deteriorate somewhat from west to east and snow will engulf much of the aforementioned regions bringing a widespread swath of 2-4cm, with heavier amounts near the traditional 401, 402, 403 and QEW corridors.
Watch for slight SW enhancement off Lake Erie providing potentially, slightly increased amounts near the St. Thomas-London-Woodstock-Brantford corridors, with particularly higher confidence around the St. Thomas-London corridor.

Friday Morning
Conditions will slowly begin to improve by early morning from west to east.

The Warmup? Where is it?
A pattern change is set to change weather across Eastern Canada through the 3rd and 4th week of April and thereafter, particularly into early May.

Conditions will drastically and exponentially warm to the low to mid to eventually, upper teens in May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


[UPDATED 04/03/2018] Intense April Storm: Snow, Thunderstorms and Powerful…

An incoming system will bring a mixed-bag of wet snow, heavy accumulating snow, rain and thunderstorms across Southern, Central, Eastern and Northern Ontario, as well as, Quebec.

Through the overnight Monday, an arctic front will descend south coalescing with a strengthening area of low-pressure tracking through the Midwest United States. Temperatures will be falling across Northeastern Ontario, the Nickel Belt, Manitoulin Island, and, the Bruce Peninsula with the passage of the cold front. Light snowfall will begin in the aforementioned regions overnight Monday into Tuesday. Continuing through the day Tuesday – lasting into Wednesday. Total accumulation will range from 15-25cm by Wednesday evening.

Tuesday Thunderstorm and Rainfall Risk: Southwestern Ontario
An associated warm front looks to be staying south of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon, lessening the arrival of a warmer airmass into extreme Southwestern Ontario. Nevertheless, the track of the low will bring rainfall and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday evening. Primary threats include embedded heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 60-80km/h.

A cloudy and wet day is expected cross Southern Ontario. Generally, 15-25mm of rainfall is expected across a large swath of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Locally higher amounts of 20-40mm is expected in extreme Southwest Ontario (with local thunderstorms) and a parts of Eastern Ontario.

The strengthening area of low-pressure will continue on a north-east trajectory towards Quebec Wednesday. The passage of the low will be accompanied by colder air and powerful wind gusts across Southern Ontario. Gusts between 70-90km are expected Wednesday.

Residual snowfall will continue in parts of Northeast Ontario. Some Lake effect flurries may impact the snow-belts.

What’s to come?
Cold temperatures will continue through the first week of April, with continuing below seasonal temperatures through the 2nd and 3rd week of April. There is some confidence continued snow-systems will embed themselves across the region, with the potential for snow reaching as far south as the 401 corridor.

When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


When Will it End? Early April Chill to Bring…

An early April chill will allow colder air from Northern Canada to funnel into much of the continent of North American and provide one residual and last remnant shot of winter; significant accumulating snow April 4th (Night) through April 5th is likely, especially for some regions.

We have prepared a risk map outlining the potential for significant snow (deemed in this case a minimum of 5cm or more), across Southern, Eastern, Central and Northern Ontario, as well as parts of Southern Quebec and the Townships.

At this point, it seems most of the coldest air should remain north of the 401, alongside the higher moisture content; most of the heaviest snow will reside around Cottage Country and near Lake Superior/Northern Ontario.

At this time, the 401 corridor with the exception of regions near Lake Erie, can except a swath of 5-10cm, while regions north of the 401 (and Quebec) can expect 8-12cm, locally 15cm, and regions in Cottage Country, Northern Ontario and Lake Superior region can expect 15-20cm+.

Inevitable = >90%
Very High Chance = 80%+
High Chance = 70%+
Moderate Chance = 50%+
Slight Chance = 30%+
Minimal Chance = 10%+

When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


Canada Spring and Summer Highlights: Summer to Arrive; Will…

Canada’s Summer Highlights; Spring Temperatures and Spring Precipitation Forecast: From TransCanada Weather

Through careful analysis of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and continental, national and global temperatures, we have formulated and depicted our predictions across the country for Spring and Summer 2018.


Atlantic Canada
A relatively active storm track across the entire region as listed, will provide ample opportunities for a mixed bag of precipitation for eastern sections, with snow for western sections through late March into early April.

Parts of New Brunswick, PEI, Western Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland and most of Labrador can expect opportunities for snow.

Temperatures will be below seasonal, particularly through early April and slowly begin to moderate from late April into May for all of Atlantic Canada.

Ontario and Quebec
A relatively active storm track will also be present particularly from late March into early April. Opportunities for snow exist, however, temperatures will likely be slightly too mild for significant snow accumulations. However, below seasonal temperatures and slightly above precipitation are expected until mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate particularly later in April and seasonal weather will become more prevalent and consistent in May.

The Prairies will continue to remain fairly seasonal this spring with dry conditions at times, particularly later in spring; average precipitation early in the spring.

British Columbia
Much of British Columbia will experience warm surges of Pacific air with an inundation at times, of moisture from Pacific low pressure systems.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of April and May.


Atlantic Canada
An active storm track at times will provide for soaking rains and isolated severe thunderstorms at times, throughout the summer. This summer will be fairly consistently warm across the entire region with periods of hot and humid weather.

Summer will arrive, but some time will be required.

It is expected that warmth will begin to build into late June through July and August.

Ontario and Quebec
An active storm track will provide surges of heat across the region, particularly in late June through August. Severe weather will make visits at times this summer, however, it is expected the early portion of summer will remain somewhat dry, and slightly cool, with active and a widespread severe risk building from late July into August.

There is reasonable certainty that June will provide some bouts of cooler and drier weather relative to the norm.

The Prairies will receive a typical summer; warm with periods of stiffing temperatures, severe thunderstorms and large hail and isolated tornadic risks, particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to be slightly cooler this summer, although not exceptionally cool. Surges of hot and dry weather that typically show through July-September may be somewhat limited this summer, although not non-existent.

Its not all bad news for the BC coast as moisture is expected to be to the north and south.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of June, July and August.



[UPDATED] Waves of Snow for Southern Ontario; Slippery Conditions

Waves of light to moderate snow to inundate Southern Ontario from Wednesday into the weekend.

The remnants of the Prairie snowstorm from recent days has further disintegrated and become stagnant over Southern Ontario. Concurrently, moisture off Lake Huron will aid in a localized snowfall event for much of Southwestern Ontario.

Snow will be somewhat scattered and inconsistent in nature, however, due to the duration, locally slippery conditions are likely. Especially for the Sarnia to London corridor continuing north to encompass everywhere east of Lake Huron. Due to lake enhancement, regions particularly just east of Lake Huron – likely just south of the city of Goderich itself – will be the most impacted.

Totals depicted are over the course of several days with minimal impacts in South-Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe/GTA. Flurries with trace amounts to a few centimetres of accumulation is expected.

The heaviest accumulations will be confined to Southwestern Ontario and parts Eastern Ontario where several day totals could be 10-20cm. Actual accumulation will be less considering melting and settling.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.

New Brunswick

[UPDATED] Unsettled Pattern Arrives in Eastern Canada

Unsettled week ahead for the Maritimes to Ontario, including Quebec.

A formidable late winter snow storm has dropped impressive snowfall totals across parts of the Canadian Prairies in recent days. The same storm system has weakened and stalled over the Great Lakes, while aiding in the formation of a new surface low that tracked into the Maritimes.

The newly-formed system tracked up the Eastern Seaboard concurrently as a trough sits over the Great Lakes, becoming a weather maker for much of Eastern Canada.


Predominantly cloudy conditions, with periods of flurries and wet snow continues Thursday and Friday across Southern and Northeastern Ontario. Trace amounts are expected for most, but parts of Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario could see several day totals approach 10-20cm. Actual ground accumulation will be less considering melting and settling.


A more substantial in addition to localized snowfall threat will develop Wednesday morning, spanning parts of southwest Ontario. As a result of moisture enhancement off of the Great Lakes and a stalled trough over the region. A few wet centimetres is likely to accumulate east of Lake Huron. The unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps Friday. 5-15 centimetres of accumulation spanning the work week is expected. Highest totals away from the lakeshore and in regions of higher elevation.


A moisture-laden system approaching the Bay of Fundy will continue to spread snow and rain across the Maritimes. Moderate snowfall continues to impact central Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick. An additional 3-8cm of wet snow is expected to accumulate today, before this low tracks north. Precipitation will likely end as rain showers as temperatures warm. The heaviest totals from this system will be across a swath of central New Brunswick where 15-20cm is expected.

A second powerful storm system is expected to develop Friday lasting into Sunday. Strong winds gusting 50-70km/h and heavy snowfall amounting to an additional 10-25cm will be a concern.

Snow is expected to begin across Nova Scotia and PEI, transitioning to rain as the warm sector of the storm continues north throughout the day Thursday. Highest accumulations are expected in Cape Breton. Elsewhere, several wet centimetres will fall before a changeover to rainfall. There is still some uncertainties in exact track of this system(s). Once forecast confident increases, we will publish a region specific forecast for the maritimes promptly.

Primarily snowfall is expected in central and northern New Brunswick, with a changeover to rainfall near the Bay of Fundy.


Flurries and light snowfall continue in Southwestern Quebec. A retrograding coastal low moving west-wards towards the Saint Lawrence river Thursday into Friday morning, will being heavier snow to Southeast Quebec and the Eastern Townships. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 10-20cm range by Friday evening.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


Departure of Spring; Winter to Make a Fierce Return…

Heavy Snow and Blowing Snow for Parts of Southern Thursday into Friday.


As expected, we are watching for the continued evolution of a series of complex forms of energy dispersing from the Northern Prairies & USA, and strengthening near the Great Lakes bringing mostly heavy snow, some freezing rain (near Lake Erie), and some rain (mainly Ex. SW Ontario).

Rain should be almost exclusively present towards Extreme Southwestern Ontario (and begin Thursday morning); freezing rain will be limited to the Northern Lake Erie shoreline (and begin mid Thursday morning); for most other regions, the predominant precipitation will be snow.

Generally, the system will begin for many, in the Afternoon hours, and continue throughout the Evening and Overnight. Lingering light snow is possible for the Friday AM commute contingent alongside further blowing snow.

The evening commute, particularly Western GTA and Southwards along the 401 down to the London region, in addition to the QEW, will be significantly impacted. Conditions will rapidly and exponentially deteriorate through Thursday Mid-Late Evening and Overnight.

Blowing snow will also be of significant concern for many, Thursday into Friday. Due to this weather phenomena being present, it is important to be prepared for brief whiteout conditions, particularly those who will be traveling after sunset on Thursday PM or Pre-Dawn on Friday.

Vorticity, moisture, lift and instability remain very high, thereby allowing this storm to blossom and otherwise overachieve more-so compared to normal.


UPDATE 03/01/2018 @ 7:15PM

Snowstorm continues to develop and push towards Southern Ontario as expected.
Significant blowing snow with totals reaching what we previously posted prior, is likely.
A deformation band from SW of and including London, to Woodstock and NE around the Hamilton area is possible, thereby allowing totals for this swath to be potentially closer to the 20-25cm+ range.
There is reasonable certainty along the QEW, either Niagara or somewhere near the region could potentially reach 35-45cm.
Watch for significant blowing snow across most of Southern Ontario.

The Windsor region will likely overachieve compared to our forecast map above, and as such, that region can expect 15-20cm rather than the 6-12cm originally forecasted.


Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation extremely attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during wintery conditions. After this recent “warm-up” in prior days, it is crucial to remain extra vigilant for negligent drivers on the road.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


Above Seasonal and Abundant Sunshine for Southern Ontario

An area of high pressure south of the border is expected to move eastwards on Monday and cement its presence until Wednesday, thereby keeping tempestuous weather at bay.

Beginning Monday, February 26th, abundant sunshine is expected to spread and flourish across the entire region giving residents a “taste” of spring weather.

While temperatures on Monday are expected to reach the upper single-digits, on Tuesday and Wednesday, residents can welcome temperatures into the low-teens. On the contrary, temperatures will be sliced in half on Thursday and thereafter for the foreseeable future.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Monday.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Tuesday [and Wednesday].

This short period of above seasonal temperatures are expected to cause further concern regarding relevant regions impacted by flooding. It is important to remain diligent and refrain from close presence near high rivers and fast-moving waters.

Now, get outside and lets welcome these temperatures together!


Snow, Freezing Rain and Thundershowers for Ontario and Quebec

A Low Pressure System from Missouri Targets Ontario and Quebec This Weekend.

A quick moving Low Pressure System from Missouri will track and swing through Ontario and Quebec giving bountiful types of precipitation.

As a result of its fairly quick speed, precipitation amounts will not be overly significant, but, still pose a reasonable inconvenience depending on the region.

The heaviest snowfall will be due East of Lake Superior with moderate accumulations elsewhere across Northern/Northwestern Ontario and much of Quebec.

Parts of Ontario will be inundated with patchy freezing rain, however, significant accretions are not expected at this time.

Southern Ontario, along the 401 corridor and East to the Niagara region, can expect 10-20mm of rain with embedded non-severe thundershowers and gusty winds up to 60-75km/h.

Please adjust your driving accordingly based on the current driving conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.


Evacuation Ordered for Brantford, ON

A parade of weather systems in combination with several factors, including record warmth, frozen ground/snowmelt, and ice-jams, have led to flooding along riverside watersheds across Southern Ontario.

The City of Brantford has been hit especially hard this morning, where a State of Emergency has been issued.

Evacuation Order

City officials have issued Evacuation Orders for any street identified in the following floodplain: Foster, Cayuga, Aberdeen, Strathcona, Pontiac, Tecumseh, Ontario, Port, Eagle Ave, Robertson, Dover and Baldwin.

Residents are urged to evacuate these areas of the city until water levels recede and the Evacuation Order is lifted.

High Water Levels Across Much Of Southern Ontario

All communities along river-side watersheds and their tributaries throughout Southern Ontario, are urged to monitor local watches, warnings and statements from their local Conservation Authority. Flood warnings remain in affect for many watersheds who are dealing with flood conditions.

Flood Statements:

The flood concern is expected to peak early this afternoon (Wednesday), when cooler temperatures and drier air arrives. A brief period of freezing rain north of the GTA, will make efforts challenging for cleanup crews who are working tirelessly pumping water to ease residential flooding.

What Caused The Flooding?

A persistent High pressure ridge off the coast of Bermuda is responsible for channeling Gulf moisture and record warmth that led to this early “spring like” flooding event across Southern Ontario.