A risk of freezing rain supersedes an early February warm-up. A temperature roller coaster with a risk of freezing rain will be the story this week across Southwestern Ontario.
Rainfall and above seasonal temperatures are the story this evening into the overnight. Rainfall ends before morning, with temperatures falling throughout the day.
Be mindful around streams and creeks Tuesday morning. As well as, on roadways, where standing water could lead to hydroplaning. Rainfall and snow-melt will lead to higher water levels. Stay tuned to your local Conservation Authority for the latest information.
A freezing rain risk develops by Wednesday morning. This may be an extended period of freezing drizzle & freezing rain for locales north of Lake Erie, including the 401/402 corridor. Local freezing rain accretion may approach or exceed 15mm. Ice pellets and patchy freezing drizzle will be the story for the rest of Southwestern and Central Ontario.
There will be two waves of precipitation. The second translates across the region Thursday along a developing low-pressure system. There is some uncertainty in regards to the evolution of this system. Current model guidance suggests a northerly track, leading to a surge in temperatures (above freezing) across Southern Ontario, Thursday. This would be a big snow maker across Northern Ontario & Quebec.
Sporadic power outages are anticipated across portions of Southwestern Ontario. A stiff northeasterly wind (aiding in low-level cold delivery), will be enhanced over Lake Ontario. Bringing wind gusts to 40km/h downwind of the lake. Sporadic power outages will begin throughout the evening. Peaking between 8pm-12am Wednesday. An extended period of freezing drizzle will succeed the initial wave of convective-driven freezing rain. For regions East of the Escarpment, through South Central Ontario & the Northern GTA this will be a primarily ice pellet event. Briefly beginning as snow, especially stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Northern sections of Central Ontario.
Charge those devices! And stay tuned.