Category: Ontario

Ontario

Another Round of Severe Weather Targets Southern Ontario &…

Monday will be a pleasant seasonal day, dominated by high pressure and brilliant sunshine – across Southern Ontario & Quebec.

Wet, humid and stormy conditions start the week, with a risk of thunderstorms. Find out when and where.

SYNOPSIS:

Cloud, spotty showers, steady rainfall and humidity will make a return to Southwestern Ontario as early as tonight, with a warm front pushing northwards. Overspreading, the rest of Southern Ontario and Extreme Southern Quebec by Tuesday Morning.

Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen along the Manitoba/Ontario border as it tracks towards Hudson Bay. 15-30mm of rainfall is expected in Northwestern Ontario. With wet snow mixing in across far Northern sections. 

2 WAVES OF PRECIPITATION

The first wave of precipitation will arrive overnight tonight into Tuesday morning across Southern Ontario, moving into Quebec by the morning – ending early afternoon. Some embedded heavy-downpours is expended in a swath from the shores of Lake Erie to Niagara. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate rainfall and predominantly cloudy, warm and humid conditions. Dry slot arrives in the late morning to afternoon.

We will be watching Southwestern Ontario closely Tuesday, as any clearing could further destabilize the atmosphere increasing the risk of evening thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

SECOND WAVE; RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Associated with a sharp cold front – along a developing strong area of low-pressure forecast to deepen as it tracks through Northeastern Ontario and Quebec.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday morning from East of Georgian Bay through Southwest Ontario. Isolated severe storms are possible. Bringing isolated strong wind gusts and heavy downpours. 

SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC

A risk of isolated severe thunderstorms develops for Extreme Eastern Ontario and Southeastern Quebec late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, ahead of a sharp cold front. The primary risk will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. Isolated supercell(s) cannot be ruled out in Southeastern Quebec, but the risk will largely depend on timing & clearing.

GUSTY WINDS

Gusty southwesterly winds of 40-60km/h will overspread the risk area Tuesday. Becoming northwesterly through Wednesday. The strongest wind gusts of 60-70km/h will remain draped across Central Quebec and Nova Scotia.

Alberta

Canada Winter 2018-2019 Forecast: Frigid Prairies and Significant Lake-Effect…

Canada-Wide 2018-2019 Preliminary Forecast.
Finalized Outlook by Christmas!

Frigid Air and Heavy Squalls Loom

The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.

For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.

Key Highlights
– Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
– Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec
– Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow)
– Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow

British Columbia
For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.

Prairies
From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario & Quebec
Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years.
The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.

Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.


Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador
While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.

Territories
The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation


– TCW

Ontario

Potent System: Severe Thunderstorms & Pattern Change for Ontario…

[UPDATED] A strong fall-like system will track across Ontario and Quebec Friday, bringing a risk of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and a pattern change is expected. Find out where.

Through the day Thursday, an area of low-pressure will deepen as it tracks from the Midwest into Northeastern Ontario, Friday morning. The low will mature as it tracks into Quebec by Friday afternoon.

A warm front, associated with the seasonably-deep low will push north across Ontario and Quebec Thursday morning into Friday. Concurrently, temperatures will soar into the high-20s Friday afternoon across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec (near the border). Increasing dew-points will lead to muggy conditions feeling into the mid-30s.

Instability, very-strong upper-level winds, wind-shear, and marginal energy will lead to severe thunderstorms Friday. Ahead of a vigorous cold front, and strong upper-level trough where heights will be falling.

RISK & COVERAGE

The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms in Ontario will stretch from Central Ontario to Eastern Ontario. Coverage will be more isolated in Ontario than Quebec. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Upscale growth into a squall-line bringing straight-line winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning is possible.

In Quebec, atmospheric energy & cooler temperatures will be less favorable than Southern Ontario, but better forcing, shear, and instability will lead to isolated-severe thunderstorms. Risks include damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. This will include the risk of supercells. The strongest risk will largely affect rural, unpopulated municipalities.

WIND & HEAVY RAINFALL

Regardless of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will be strong across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec with this fall-like system. Widespread gusts between 50-80km is expected across a large swath of Ontario and Quebec, preceding the cold front and after its passage.

UPDATE: latest model guidance is suggesting that localized wind gusts of 90-100km will impact Ontario and much of Quebec.

30-50mm of rainfall is expected along a swath East of Lake Superior through Northeastern Ontario.

PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL

The passage of the cold front will usher is much cooler and drier conditions by Friday night. Temperatures will struggle to get into the mid-teens by the weekend. A hard freeze is looking probable across Northern Quebec and Northern Ontario.

Ontario

Wet & Stormy Tuesday Across the Lower Great Lakes

Heavy thunderstorms expected Tuesday (August 21st, 2018) across Southern Ontario.

Rain-showers or thunderstorms are expected to begin moving into deep Southwestern Ontario overnight Monday into Tuesday. Convection will spread throughout Southern Ontario throughout the morning and afternoon as a maturing-low approaches from the US. Another round is possible by the mid-evening along the shores of Lake Huron.

BRIEF CLEARING? & HEAVY RAINFALL

There may be some brief clearing stretching from the Golden Horseshoe into Southwestern Ontario. This would add more energy and instability, allowing for some isolated severe thunderstorms capable of very-strong winds and short-lived rotation.

Much of the day however, is expected to be dominated by cloud, showers and passing heavy thunderstorms – perhaps several rounds. This could lead to locally significant rainfall-totals. With the threat of localized flooding. Widespread amounts between 30-50mm is expected.

BENEFICIAL RAIN:

East of Georgian Bay stretching into East of Superior will see a beneficial, soaking rainfall from this system. Which will help alleviate forest fire concerns, plaguing the region this summer.

WIND:

This will be an early fall-like system for the Great Lakes. As we move deeper into August we are beginning to enter a transitional period, where low-pressure systems produce synoptic rain and wind over a larger area. Widespread winds gusting between 50-70km/h are expected between Tuesday late-afternoon, and through the evening.

No need for “the end of sunmer blues” quite yet, temperatures by this weekend will be near 30c feeling closer to 40c with the humdity factored in.

Ontario

Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms for Ontario – Monday,…


A few rounds of Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms will arrive for a large swath of Ontario for Monday.

Beginning early on Monday, several rounds of severe thunderstorms will arrive for Ontario. While initially on radar, it may look like only certain regions will be encompassed by Severe Weather, there will be a few rounds throughout the day.

The initial round looks to be from Sarnia to Windsor, with a secondary and tertiary line of storms for the rest of Southern and Eastern Ontario mid to late day.

A few severe thunderstorms are also possible early on due east of Georgian Bay.

Key Highlights
– The best chance of severe thunderstorms near the Canada/USA border from a line including Sarnia SW to Windsor; primary risk is wind gusts up to or above 100km/h
– Some indications of isolated cluster cells SE of Georgian Bay, and all along the GTA, as well as, much of Eastern Ontario; primary risks are winds up to 90km/h, small hail and torrential rain
– Elsewhere, a few isolated severe thunderstorms are likely

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

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Ontario

Severe Thunderstorm Risk; Brief Cool-Down; Another Blast of Heat…

Conditions will become favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms for a large area across Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario for Thursday, July 5th.

What to Expect
With continued rising temperatures, high dew-points, and daytime heating, a weak front will slice through the aforementioned regions and provide enough instability to bring-about some severe thunderstorms later in the day on Thursday.

While the dynamics are not entirely conducive to significant supercell development, a lack of shear, ultimately, will mitigate rapid intensification and development. The primary risk therefore, with these thunderstorms, will be quick flooding rains (25-50mm).

The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will likely occur just east of Lake Huron, but likely 15-20km west of the major 401 corridor. The GTA and QEW should remain non-severe (overall) and regions around Cottage Country should receive rain showers.

1 or 2 severe thunderstorms on the northern edge of Lake Ontario cannot be ruled out.

Cool-Down
A brief / slight cool-down (24-27C; less humid; and drier conditions), will arrive for the aforementioned regions on/for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

What’s Next?
From te brief cool-down outlined above, temperatures are expected to rebound back into the upper 20s and low 30s for the next severel weeks (avg: 29-32C). This time around however, conditions will be less humid than the more recent surge of warmth.

As outlined in our summer prediction, isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across Ontario and Quebec for much of the summer.

Long-Range Outlook: Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
Continued above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions are still expected for Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. There is some potential for record-breaking heat once again somewhere in the last few days of July into early August for about a week.

Remember, summer thunderstorm forecasts  – severe and/or non-severe – represent a plausible scenario based on extensive weather calculations, parameters and up-to-date atmospheric data. Nothing is for certain, but outlines a possible or likely scenario based on the aforementioned points.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during hazardous conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Isolated Severe Storms Slice Humidity in Ontario & Quebec

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the lower half of Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec today (July 2nd, 2018).

A weak cold front will slowly track across Southern ON/SQUE today acting as a trigger for thunderstorms. The frontal passage is not expected to offer much relief from the heat, but will lower humidity to more comfortable levels tonight and Tuesday.

The primary risk with these thunderstorms will be torrential rainfall. Due to slow movement of the frontal passage some thunderstorms may “train” or, regenerate over the same region bringing locally 30-50mm in a short period of time. Additionally, isolated damaging winds are possible – primarily in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Quebec where the greatest risk for severe exists. Small hail between pea and dime size is possible in the more robust updrafts across the entire isolated severe risk zone.

The timing for storm development today, will be between 11am-6pm. We have highlighted localized municipalities – stretching from the Golden Horseshoe into Eastern Ontario in a isolated severe threat.

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Manitoba

Heavy Thunderstorms Expected in Southeastern Prairies

Widespread heavy to severe thunderstorms likely late this evening – continuing into the overnight hours in Southern Manitoba and Southeastern Saskatchewan. 

 

A stationary front this afternoon in Northern Dakota will separate warm, moist air south of the international border, with warm, drier air in Southern Manitoba. Along this front, there is a risk of isolated severe storms in North Dakota this afternoon – staying stateside. 

A deepening system out of Rockies will trigger severe thunderstorms stateside and a second, more significant/widespread risk of thunderstorms this evening/overnight.

Environment Canada (PASPC) Thunderstorm Outlook. Valid 12pm Thursday to 6am Friday. Highlighting the risk for severe thunderstorms. Note: these forecast maps are still experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canadas website. 

A second wave which is forecast to develop late in the day, stateside, is the one we are watching closely. Moist and unstable air creeps across the border into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba this evening. The northern extent of the second wave is expected to cross the international border into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba sometime around midnight. 

There is still some uncertainty regarding evolution and timing of this convective complex. Such complexes also known as MCSs or MCCs – Mesoscale Convective Complex; are notorious for producing intense frequent lightning, flash flooding, and damaging to destructive winds. Large hail is also a possibility, during the initial storm development.

The risk moves out of Southeastern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario pre-dawn Friday into Friday morning.

We will be monitoring the situation attentively into this evening and overnight. 

Ontario

June 30 and July 1: Extreme Humidex Values to…

Humidex values across parts of Ontario this weekend are ‘all set’ to arrive for millions this weekend – just in time for Canada-Day festivities. This will be one of the hottest Canada-Day’s in years.

 

Across Southwestern and Southern Ontario, the hottest of the two days will be on Saturday with humidex values into the 40s; regions north of Toronto and extreme Southwestern Ontario will ultimately top the mid 40s.

Across Eastern Ontario, such as the Ottawa-Valley, the hottest of the two days will be on Sunday, with humidex values nearing the upper 40s to potentially 50C in some regions. Records will certainly be broken by the end of Sunday.

Temperatures across a multitude of regions this weekend will be in the neighbourhood of 32-36C with certain regions in the Ottawa-Valley potentially reaching 37-38C.

If you plan on enjoying the weekend heat – or Canada-Day/weekend festivities – remain hydrated and be fully cognisant of all potential heat exhaustion signs to prevent heat stroke.

Look-out for one another.

Be safe and have an incredible Canada Day!

After this weekend, temperatures will cool slightly but remain consistently warm for quite some-time. Watch for drought-like conditions for Ontario and Quebec for the remainder of the summer, overall, with intermittent periods of isolated severe thunderstorms.

For a quick view regarding our updated Summer Forecast from a few days ago, please view the image below.

Updated Summer Temperature Forecast.

 

TCW

Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW