Our forecasting team is tracking an overachieving Clipper system tracking through the Lower Great Lakes Overnight. Dissipating West to East through Sunday AM.
A quick burst of snow begins near midnight tonight, persisting through the pre-dawn hours (5-6am) Sunday morning. Generally, 3-8cm is expected. Due to the nature of clipper systems amounts will vary throughout the forecast area.
Wind gusts to 60-70km/h are expected along the north shore of Lake Erie (along the Niagara Peninsula), early Sunday morning. Watch for local blowing snow and poor travel in the area.
Exercise caution if you are travelling early Sunday morning. Since it is a weekend, little impact to transportation is anticipated.
Winter returns to the Great Lakes, after an extended lull in activity and cold air between December and early January. Find out where, and, how bad the ‘next one’ will be.
An area of low-pressure tracks through Illinois late this evening. Tracking through Michigan & Northeast Ontario by Wednesday afternoon & evening. Precipitation begins as snow across Central, Northeastern, and much of Southwestern Ontario Tuesday evening.
Freezing rain and ice pellets begin after 9pm across the Windsor – Sarnia corridor. Changing to rain, with little impact. Freezing rain spreads north of Lake Erie through the overnight. 3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected before changing over to rain.
continues across much of Central, Southwestern, and Eastern Ontario overnight
into Wednesday morning. A lull in snow develops across the 400 corridor near
7am. Lowering snowfall totals across Southern Simcoe county; risk of freezing
South of the 401/402 changes over to all rain during the early morning. Freezing rain continues along the escarpment (West of Lake Ontario). A changeover to rain continues North & East throughout the afternoon, proceeded by brief freezing rain.
Snow continues North of Lake Simcoe and North of Ottawa through the afternoon. A extended period (5-8 hours) of freezing rain develops Wednesday afternoon in Montreal, after a period of snow. Conditions will be hazardous in the City.
A primarily snow event
stretching from Bruce and Huron county’s through Georgian Bay. Also, putting
parts of Eastern and Northeastern Ontario in a swath of 15-25cm. Little
accumulation north of Lake Erie, but watch for icing with the potential of
5-8mm of accretion before the changeover to rain. 2-4cm of snow across the GTA,
with brief freezing rain. A larger swath of 5-10cm of snow is expected across
the light blue shaded area on our forecast map.
A classic fall windstorm will track through the Great Lakes Tuesday, bringing strong winds, snow, and rain across Ontario.
A compact area of low-pressure is forecast to deepen overnight Monday, as it tracks through Michigan. Bringing strong wind & rain across Southern Ontario. Concurrently, bringing snow to Northwestern Ontario.
SOUTHERN ONTARIO: STRONG WINDS & RAIN SHOWERS
By Tuesday morning, rain showers will become more numerous as a large area of precipitation moves north from the United States. 5-15mm of rainfall in the morning, preceded by sunny breaks across South Central & Southwestern Ontario by the early/mid afternoon. Temperatures will likely spike into the low teens by the afternoon.
Winds will become stronger throughout the late morning. Becoming the strongest through the afternoon and evening. Widespread wind gusts between 60-80km/h is expected through the afternoon/evening Tuesday. The strongest winds, potentially exceeding 90km/h, are possible in the Niagara Region, Prince Edward, Bruce & Grey Counties.
The strong winds will likely strip many of the remaining leaves from trees. Remember to clean fallen leaves from storm drains.
While the South contends with wind & rain, Northwestern Ontario will see snowfall. The heaviest snowfall is expected across far-Northwestern Ontario. Another area of snowfall is expected northwest of Thunder Bay. General amounts between 5-10cms is expected Tuesday.
Much colder air with light-snow, is expected for Thunder Bay through Wednesday & Thursday.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ON THE HORIZON
The warm up will be short-lived. The coldest air of the season, accompanied by lake effect snow arrives this weekend. Daily low temperatures will become consistently negative beyond Friday, November 9th across Southern Ontario. With daytime highs around the freezing mark for several days. Lake effect snow will really begin to ramp up beginning late week.
A system developing in the Southeastern United States will track up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, becoming a weather story across Eastern Canada.
A developing coastal system will bring a wintery mix across Southern Ontario, Quebec, and Northern New Brunswick.
A boundary will form in Southern Ontario between a cold & dry high-pressure system, and moist air arriving from the Southeast. Colder air will overspread Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec Saturday, owing to a cold Northeasterly wind. Concurrently, a large area of precipitation will push north into Southern Quebec and Southern Ontario.
Snow, mixing, rain and freezing rain is expected from Saturday morning to Sunday evening. Flurries will continue through Monday.
Across, Nova Scotia, PEI and much of New Brunswick will see primarily rain. Although, Northern New Brunswick could remain as a mix or snow depending on the track of the developing system.
Many residents East of Highway 6 and across the GTA have started the day with moderate wet snow.
A cold northeasterly wind will reinforce colder air by Saturday evening. Mixing or rain-showers will transition into a wintery mix of wet snow & ice pellets east of Highway 6, along/north of highway 407/7. Continuing through much of Central and Eastern Ontario (away from the lake shore). A few wet centimetres is possible. Especially for municipalities at higher elevation South and East of Georgian Bay. Please plan accordingly, as conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday.
MARITIMES: Strong Winds & Heavy Rainfall
This system will be a rain and wind story across much of the Maritimes. The strongest winds, with gusts between 80-90km/h, will be located across the Bay of Fundy. Elsewhere winds across much of Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick are expected to be gusting between 50-70km/h Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts between 20-50mm is expected by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rain falling in Southern New Brunswick and coastal Nova Scotia. Across Northern New Brunswick, a period of snow and mixing may persist into the overnight.
Flurries will begin north of the St. Lawrence Saturday evening. Montreal, and the Eastern Townships will likely changeover to rain late Saturday evening/overnight, with the arrival of warmer air.
For regions north of the St. Lawrence, this will be a snow and ice story. Stay tuned to further forecasts Saturday night through Sunday morning, this region could see a 5-8 hour window for freezing rain.
A frosty Saturday night ahead across much of Southern Ontario. Pleasant conditions Sunday, give way to a pair of clipper systems to start the work week.
It will be a cool and frosty Sunday morning across Southern Ontario. Sunny conditions, and light southwesterly winds, will allow temperatures to rebound in the afternoon. The first of two clipper systems brings rain showers (beginning) Monday morning. Dreary and cool conditions continue through the afternoon.
First Shot of Lake Effect Snow?
A clipper system will track through the Great Lakes late Tuesday through Wednesday. The passage of the low will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cold and dry air. Lake effect rainfall may bring graupel or hail to some locales in Central Ontario (Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning). Owing to, instability, and seasonably cold air building aloft.
Lake effect rainfall bands will transition to wet snowfall Wednesday night, Southeast of Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay.
Seasonably cool air 1.5km above the surface, will support lake effect snow. Abundant dry air, warm ground temperatures, and a building area of high pressure, should mitigate any risk of significant accumulation. We will monitor the risk over the coming days.
Colder air is beginning it’s decent across Southern & Central Ontario. Gusty winds this evening gives-way to Lake Effect rainfall Thursday night through Friday. First ‘bout of the season serves as a reminder that winter is coming.
Inland sections surrounding Agawa Bay to Montreal River Harbour will see Lake Effect rainfall beginning this evening. A transition to mixing or large flakes of wet snow is anticipated during the early morning hours Friday. Location: East of Lake Superior.
Accumulating snow will develop in Lake Effect bands near Wawa Friday night through Saturday.
Lake effect rainbands will setup tonight southwest of Georgian Bay and East of Lake huron. Owen Sound to Barrie to Orillia will be in for a chilly wet reminder that winter is coming. With rainfall bands meandering through the area.
Fairweather waterspouts are possible late Friday over Lakes Erie and Ontario, given the cold air aloft.
An area of low pressure will strengthen as it tracks through the Upper Midwestern United States. Bringing accumulating snow and gusty winds across Northwestern Ontario. Summer-like heat & humdity returns to Southern Ontario.
TIMING & ACCUMULATIONS
Snow flurries will begin mixing in along Highway 17 late Wednesday evening. With wet snow falling by Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, anywhere along and south of Highway 11 will likely be seeing rain.
North of Lake Superior, precipitation will fall as a cold rain with gusty winds. Including the Thunder Bay area, where cold rain and gusty winds will lead to a miserable day.
By Wednesday afternoon or late evening, cold air will wrap around the deepening system. Heavy snowfall will begin accumulating in a line from Kenora to Dryden to Sioux Lookout to Pickle Lake. Continuing into extreme Southeastern Manitoba. Moderate to heavy snowfall and gusty winds will persist, increasing in coverage across Northwestern Ontario through the day Thursday.
Projected amounts are subject to change based on the track & timing of the low + Hurricane Michael. Current guidance suggests a large swath of 20-30cm. 30-40cm could fall locally.
Actual accumulations will be largely dependant upon key factors: track of the low, temperature, and snowfall ratios. Moisture won’t be an issue with tropical moisture from Hurricane Michael.
While Northwestern Ontario deals with heavy snow, Northeastern Ontario will be dealing with heavy rainfall. A large swath of 50-75mm is expected East of Lake Superior.
THE TALE OF TWO SEASONS
As Northern Ontario deals with heavy rain and snow, Southern Ontario will get one last blast of summer. Temperatures Wednesday will likely be soaring into the mid or high-20s. With abundant humidity making it feel into the 30s. Forecast temperature & humidity readings will challenge all-time October records Tuesday and Wednesday.
Heavy showers & thunderstorms beginning this afternoon in Sudbury and Algoma District. Continuing through the overnight.
An area of low pressure will rapidly intensify as it tracks through Northern Ontario towards James Bay. A sharp cold front will trigger heavy rainfall and thunderstorms today and tonight across Northeastern Ontario.
The primary threat will be torrential rainfall leading to minor flooding. Additionally, small hail and locally strong winds are possible in stronger thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals in the range of 30-60mm is expected north of Manitoulin Island & East of Lake Superior.
Monday will be a pleasant seasonal day, dominated by high pressure and brilliant sunshine – across Southern Ontario & Quebec.
Wet, humid and stormy conditions start the week, with a risk of thunderstorms. Find out when and where.
Cloud, spotty showers, steady rainfall and humidity will make a return to Southwestern Ontario as early as tonight, with a warm front pushing northwards. Overspreading, the rest of Southern Ontario and Extreme Southern Quebec by Tuesday Morning.
Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen along the Manitoba/Ontario border as it tracks towards Hudson Bay. 15-30mm of rainfall is expected in Northwestern Ontario. With wet snow mixing in across far Northern sections.
2 WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
The first wave of precipitation will arrive overnight tonight into Tuesday morning across Southern Ontario, moving into Quebec by the morning – ending early afternoon. Some embedded heavy-downpours is expended in a swath from the shores of Lake Erie to Niagara. Elsewhere, expect light to moderate rainfall and predominantly cloudy, warm and humid conditions. Dry slot arrives in the late morning to afternoon.
We will be watching Southwestern Ontario closely Tuesday, as any clearing could further destabilize the atmosphere increasing the risk of evening thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
SECOND WAVE; RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
Associated with a sharp cold front – along a developing strong area of low-pressure forecast to deepen as it tracks through Northeastern Ontario and Quebec.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday morning from East of Georgian Bay through Southwest Ontario. Isolated severe storms are possible. Bringing isolated strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
A risk of isolated severe thunderstorms develops for Extreme Eastern Ontario and Southeastern Quebec late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, ahead of a sharp cold front. The primary risk will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. Isolated supercell(s) cannot be ruled out in Southeastern Quebec, but the risk will largely depend on timing & clearing.
Gusty southwesterly winds of 40-60km/h will overspread the risk area Tuesday. Becoming northwesterly through Wednesday. The strongest wind gusts of 60-70km/h will remain draped across Central Quebec and Nova Scotia.
The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.
Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.
For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.
Key Highlights – Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba – Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec – Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow) – Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow
British Columbia For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.
Prairies From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Ontario & Quebec Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years. The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.
Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.
Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.
Territories The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation