Category: Ontario

Manitoba

Winter Storm to Bring Blizzard Conditions Throughout Thanksgiving Weekend…

A strengthening Colorado Low will bring a long-duration, widespread winter storm to portions of the Upper Midwest in the United States before moving into Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario with blizzard and ice storm conditions.

A band of light to moderate snow will cross Southern and Central Manitoba along a cold front throughout the early morning on Thursday bringing a widespread 2-5cm, locally 10cm of snow. Into the late morning and early afternoon, conditions will begin to deteriorate as a Colorado Low begins to push north towards the region.

Widespread snow is expected across Southern and Central Manitoba extending from the Saskatchewan border into Far Northwestern Ontario. Across the Southeastern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario, heavy rain will begin to soak the already saturated ground. This will also begin the long-duration ice event which is expected along the Ontario-Manitoba border, east of Winnipeg, extending northeast towards Red Lake and Weagamow Lake in Northwestern Ontario.

The exact location of the system is yet to be determined. Most global forecast models are consistent with the system moving over the Lake of the Woods area, although, a slight shift in the track will make a major change in the forecast in terms of snowfall/rainfall locations, more significantly, the location of the significant ice.

SNOWFALL & BLIZZARD CONDITIONS – SOUTHERN REGIONS

Accumulations from the winter storm will vary greatly throughout Southern Manitoba with the heaviest accumulations throughout the higher terrain. Current guidance suggests snowfall totals will be highest between 30 and 50cm, locally higher towards 65cm+, in the extreme southern portion of Manitoba throughout the Red River Valley into the Darlingford Moraine region. This area has been highlighted with the extent of dark pink in the forecast map. Isolated totals near 70cm may be possible. Snowfall warnings are in effect for portions of this region.

Throughout this region, widespread winds between 60-80km/h are likely to cause significant blowing snow and possibly blizzard conditions. Whether blizzard warnings are issued or not, significant impacts on travel are likely across much of the major highways in the southern portion of the province. Highways such as 1 (Trans Canada Hwy.), 2, 3, 5, 23 and 75 should be avoided throughout the weekend.

The criteria for a blizzard classification and blizzard warning in Canada follow the 4-4-4 rule: 40km/h winds or greater causing widespread reductions in the visibility to 400 meters or less for at least 4 hours. A full list of alert criteria can be found here.

Extending inland towards Lake Manitoba, including Portage la Prairie, snowfall totals will be less in the 20-40cm range although local totals between 40-60cm are possible. The extent of this region can be seen in pink. This region also includes Boissevain to the west and Winkler/Altona to the east. This region continues in a swath between Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg, extending just east of the lake as well, including Bloodvein. This region is less likely to see the locally higher totals. Snowfall ratios in this region will likely peak around 10:1 (10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water).

Extending out in all direction, snowfall totals are likely to decrease. This is seen in the dark blue shade on the map. Towards the west of Lake Manitoba, snowfall totals between 10-20cm are likely. There was some discussion within the team as to whether or not we should extend this region to the west of Northern Lake Winnipeg, although, we have went against this due to the expected location and size of the system. This remains a possible option, but, less likely at this time. Between Southern Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipeg, 10-20cm of snow is also possible. Towards the east, including Winnipeg, as well as areas east of Lake Winnipeg to the Ontario border, snowfall totals between 10-20cm are likely throughout the weekend with local totals towards 30cm. Finally, areas northeast of Lake Winnipeg through the Poplar region towards the God’s Lake region will also see between 10-20cm of snow with an increased risk of 20-30cm.

Towards the west into Saskatchewan, a brief period of snow is likely to bring generally 5cm of snow to the region. Further into Manitoba, 5-10cm is expected from the ‘after side’ of this system. In Ontario and Southeastern Manitoba, 5-10cm is likely with most, if not all, the snow remaining melt-on-contact due to the expected heavy rainfall throughout the system. Towards Lake Superior, snowfall totals will be localized to 5cm with limited to no visible accumulations likely.


Projected snowfall totals between Thursday, October 10th to Sunday, October 13th

SNOWFALL & BLIZZARD CONDITIONS – NORTHERN REGIONS

Accumulations from the winter storm will be significant along the Manitoba/Ontario border. The heaviest accumulations will occur in the pink region. This region extends from between Poplar Park Reserve in Manitoba and Opasquia Park in Ontario along the border to Sturgeon Lake in Ontario. Snowfall totals between 25-45cm are likely with local amounts approaching or surpassing 50cm. Outside of this region, a widespread 10-20cm, locally 25cm is likely within the dark blue region. This extends from Lake Winnipeg through to Sandy Lake and Sachigo Lake in Ontario towards Hudson Bay. with the heaviest accumulations throughout the higher terrain. A winter storm warning is in effect for portions of this region.

In the light blue region, which extends from Hudson Bay through to Lake Winnipeg and Big Trout Lake, Ontario, snowfall totals between 5-10cm are possible. Local totals towards 15cm are possible into Manitoba, although, current guidance suggests this is unlikely.


Projected snowfall totals between Thursday, October 10th to Sunday, October 13th

ICE STORM

Across Southeastern Manitoba, southeast of Winnipeg, extending into Northwestern Ontario along the Manitoba/Ontario border, a long-duration ice storm is increasingly likely.

As temperatures near 0 C throughout the long-duration of the winter storm, freezing rain and ice pellets will be a large concern along the border of the provinces towards the south. With the system expected to track of Lake of the Woods, heavy rain is likely across portions of Southeastern Manitoba (Buffalo Point westward) and much of Northwestern Ontario. A thin band of moderate to heavy freezing rain is likely to remain stationary for multiple hours.

Extending from the Vita/Marchand area in Manitoba through the Ontario border into the Red Lake and MacDowell Lake areas, heavy freezing rain between 15-30mm of ice is possible. In a tight gradient outside of this region, the freezing rain totals will quickly drop off in a thin 5-15mm ice range followed by a large 2-5mm ice range. This larger area extends from Hudson Bay through Big Trout Lake into the Whiteshell Provincial Park area in Manitoba. The attached map highlights the possibly affected areas, but due to the tight gradient, we have not added totals onto the map.

Widespread wind gusts between 40-60km/h, locally higher towards Southern Manitoba will likely result in widespread power outages in the affected communities. Highways such as 1 /17 (Trans Canada Hwy.), 44, 105, 307, 596, 658 should be avoided throughout the weekend.


Projected freezing rain totals between Wednesday (pm), October 9th to Sunday, October 13th

RAINFALL

Across Northwestern Ontario and Southeastern Manitoba, heavy rain will bring a wide swath of 40-70mm to the region. Local totals between 70-90mm will be possible in the strongest bands in the system. Rainfall warnings have been issued for these regions as there are numerous communities already dealing with flooding throughout the area.

You can continue to monitor weather alerts issued by Environment Canada from their website: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Alberta

Long-Duration Snowstorm Brings Early Season Chill Across British Columbia…

A strengthening Colorado Low will bring a long-duration, widespread snowstorm to portions of British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan before lingering into Manitoba and Northern Ontario.

A weak low is expected to bring a snowstorm to the mountains of British Columbia and Alberta on Friday lasting through to Sunday. Strengthening into the weekend, on Saturday, a strong low is expected to form near the Wyoming/Colorado border before moving east towards Northwestern Ontario before phasing out and reorganizing into a low which will bring widespread rain to portions of Northeastern and Southern Ontario.

WESTERN PRAIRIES & SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SNOWFALL TOTALS

Accumulations from the snowstorm will vary greatly throughout Southern Alberta/Saskatchewan with the heaviest accumulations throughout the mountains. Current guidance suggests snowfall totals will be highest between 30 and 60cm, locally higher towards 70cm+, in the extreme southwestern portion of Alberta throughout Waterton Lakes National Park towards Pincher Creek, where the extent of red is shaded in the forecast map. Isolated totals near 100cm may be possible. Along the United States border extending into the mountains, highlighted in pink, snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm are likely with pockets of snow towards 40cm possible throughout the mountains. The highest snowfall totals are due to the position of the low creating an ‘up-sloping’ event where the snow is driven up and into the mountains and foothills allowing for significant accumulations. Snowfall ratios in this region will likely peak around 10:1 (10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water).

Down the mountains into the foothills and into the Central-Northern Rocky Mountains, Purcell Mountains, and Northern Selkirks Mountains, snowfall totals will be limited to 10-20cm with local totals towards 20-30cm. This includes Banff and Cranbrook, as well as, this region is highlighted in purple on the forecast map. In Extreme Southern Alberta, outside of the foothills will likely see between 10-20cm of snow. This includes the City of Lethbridge extending towards the southeast, also seen in purple on the forecast map. The snowfall totals may significantly drop off outside of the mountains and foothill regions as temperatures on Saturday through to Monday across the lower Prairie regions will be within 2 degrees of 0, meaning, snow may change over to rain at the lower elevations. This would significantly limit accumulations. The temperature change would be most prevalent in Extreme Southeastern Alberta into Southern Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals in this region are expected to be between 5-15cm are likely, which can be seen in purple on the forecast map, and circled. If temperatures trend cooler for this region, 10-20cm wouldn’t be out of the question for Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, extending as far in to include Shaunavon. Snowfall ratios will peak around the 3:1 and 5:1 range.

A general 5-15cm, locally up to 25cm, can be extended throughout the Rocky Mountains from the Lake Lousie region northwest into British Columbia extending towards Fort Nelson, as well as the Southern Selkirks Mountains and portions of the Monashees and Cascade Mountains. This would include Jasper and Grande Cache. This is highlighted in dark blue on the map. Across Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, a widespread 5-10cm, locally 15-20cm can be expected, also highlighted in dark blue. This includes Calgary, Medicine Hat, Swift Current, Rockglen, and Penticton. Elsewhere in light blue, flurries are likely. Snowfall totals around 5cm with local totals to 10-15cm are likely around Kelowna and Vernon. Snowfall totals will range under 5cm with local pockets sticking up to 10cm for portions of Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. Generally, the snow will melt-on-contact for a majority of the event for these highlighted regions, including Red Deer, Regina, and Saskatoon.

Environment Canada has issued widespread special weather statements across Southern, Western and Central Alberta, as well as, portions of British Columbia. Winter storm watches have been issued ahead of the snowstorm for Pincher Creek, Waterton Lakes National Park, Canmore, Okotoks, Cardston, and Fort Macleod regions.

Weather alerts can be monitored on Environment Canada’s website: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Projected snowfall totals between Friday, September 27th to Monday, September 30th

MANITOBA & ONTARIO SNOWFALL TOTALS

As the snowstorm producing low-pressure system crosses east, bringing the precipitation with it, light to moderate showers are likely across Southern Manitoba, and most of Northern Ontario. Alongside these showers, a band of flurries to light snow will cross portions of Central/Northern Manitoba into Far Northern Ontario. Snowfall totals less than or near 5cm are likely due to the snow mainly being melt-on-contact. A few pockets across Southwestern Manitoba and into Far Northern Ontario may see local totals towards 10cm. The highest confidence for locally higher totals is circled in red.

Projected snowfall totals between Monday, September 30th to Wednesday, October 2nd

BLOWING SNOW & STRONG WINDS

As the snow falls across the Southern Prairies, increasing wind speeds will bring the threat for hazardous traveling conditions in fast accumulating snow and falling snow. Current guidance suggests wind speeds will range from 30-50km/h across Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan later in the day on Saturday extending through to Sunday morning. During the afternoon and evening on Sunday, winds will likely increase to 40-70km/h before 40-60km/h wind gusts settle in across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario as the system weakens and phases out beginning mid-day Monday.

Blizzard conditions are possible.

Blowing snow and falling snow may make travel hazardous on Highway 1, 2, 3, and 4 across Southern Alberta and on Highway 1, 13, 18, 21, and 37 in Southern Saskatchewan.

Ontario

Spectacular Shelf Cloud Spotted Near Tilbury Ontario

It’s been an active evening across extreme Southwestern Ontario. Severe storms produced torrential downpours, damaging winds, intense frequent lightning, and eerie skies. One storm chaser tracking the storms got more than he anticipated today.

https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1146217122890223622
There has been some damage and minor flooding reported.
A roll cloud ended the evening of severe weather as the storms became outflow dominated, turning into a large area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.



Alberta

Convective Outlook: Thunderstorms & Flood Risk

Our forecasting team at TransCanada Weather is cautiously watching long range model guidance. Between Tuesday May 28th – Thursday, June 6th, the evolution of a pattern supportive of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms & unsettled conditions will envelop parts of Canada. Read below to find out where.

PRAIRIES: Unsettled Conditions, Risk of Cold Core Funnels, Threat of Thunderstorms

The Prairies will have to contend with unsettled conditions. Including a pattern that may support the risk of cold core funnel clouds & areas of severe thunderstorms between late May to early June. This is be welcomed news for Alberta; contending with out-of-control forest fires.

GREAT LAKES: Heavy Rain & Severe Thunderstorms

A second area we are watching closely: the Great Lakes/Ontario region. A supportive pattern for flooding and/or severe thunderstorms is possible between Tuesday May 28th to Thursday May 30th.

Abnormally, deep troughing, seasonably deep height-falls, strong waves of low-pressure, concurrent with a southeast ridge. Will bring surges of warm moist air along with supportive wind profiles for severe thunderstorms and/or flood risk. A significant severe day will be possible within this regime across Southern or Northeastern Ontario.

Saturday, May 25th: after Thursday, the next threat for severe across Southern Ontario will come Saturday. Risks across Southwestern Ontario include: isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail & torrential downpours.

Additional considerations: drought conditions in the Southeastern US allowing mid-level dry/warm air to migrate north within stronger circulations. Abnormally-wet southern plains, increasing low-level moisture transport/PWAT values in stronger 850mb flows.

-troy

Ontario

Thunderstorms Threaten Damaging Winds in Southern Ontario

A sudden surge of warm, summer-like air will herald in the risk of thunderstorms across the Lower Great Lakes. These thunderstorms may turn severe; capable of producing damaging winds & hail across portions of Southern Ontario. 

SURGING TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORMS & RAIN

An area of low-pressure will transverse through the Midwestern United States towards Ontario, throughout the day Sunday. Ahead of the system, temperatures will surge into the mid-20s and humidity readings into the low-30s. Near the Lake-shore, cooler conditions are expected.

Showers are expected before midnight tonight, lasting into the pre-dawn hours. Persistent rain-showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected for Central Ontario – mainly East of Georgian Bay. Sunny breaks are anticipated through the morning hours, allowing for some instability to build before the arrival of a cold front.

A soaking rainfall and single-digit temperatures North of the warm front. Heavy thunderstorms ahead & along a cold front in the South.

At this point, it appears the setup will feature two potential waves of thunderstorms. The primary wave will consist of a complex of heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms impacting Southern Ontario between 4-10 pm. Initiating at approximately 4 pm in Windsor and exiting Eastern Ontario by 11 pm. Risks include: torrential downpours, lighting and isolated damaging winds. A potentially stronger second round of thunderstorms (along an advancing cold front) may happen on Sunday evening/overnight, across Extreme Southwestern Ontario. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of thunderstorm development. If thunderstorms do develop, risk factors include: hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

Across Northern Ontario, a large swath of heavy rainfall is expected. Local rainfall totals nearing 50mm is anticipated.

New Brunswick

Texas Low: Severe Outbreak Precedes Potent Storm for Eastern…

A significant trough crossing the Guadelupe Mountains will drive the development of a potent area of low-pressure across Texas Saturday. Favorable conditions for the development of severe thunderstorms, will exist along the warm front axis; ahead of a vigorous cold front. This will be significant “severe weather event” for Northern Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, Western Mississippi, and Eastern Texas. Reloading for a second day of severe weather, across the Eastern United States.

Moisture laden low developing in Texas bringing severe thunderstorms. With impacts across Eastern Canada to end the week. Persisting into early next week.

During the day Sunday, the low is forecast to take a northeast hook towards the lower Great Lakes bringing a plume of rain and snow for Southern/Central Ontario & Southern Quebec.

Atlantic Canada is poised to see the most tempestuous conditions, with rapid deepening of the low-pressure center late Monday. This system will be a heavy-rain story for the Maritimes. On the contrary, Newfoundland could see heavy snow, significant freezing rain and strong winds.

COOL, WET & LOUSY COUPLE DAYS FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Get out and enjoy the abundant sunshine and warm temperatures Saturday. A messy, moisture-laden system out of Texas will deliver below seasonal temperatures, a soaking rainfall, mixed precipitation and accumulating wet snow. The heaviest rainfall will be situated along the Lake Ontario shoreline into the Niagara Region. The heaviest of the snowfall will be seen across parts of Central Ontario – through cottage country.

A lousy system for the Great Lakes. Below seasonal temperatures, a soaking rainfall and more snow expected.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL & GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MARITIMES

Significant rainfall will encompass much of Nova Scotia, the Bay of Fundy region in New Brunswick & Prince Edward Island. There is still considerable uncertainty how this low will develop in the Maritimes. Current projections have most of the precipitation falling as rainfall. As much as, 40-75mm of rain is possible, between Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

Click to navigate a larger image of the map.

POTENTIAL ‘WEATHERBOMB’ FOR NEWFOUNDLAND

The system is expected to undergo rapid deepening Monday night. Slowing as it transverses through Gulf of St. Lawrence. A strengthening wind field along the Northwestern coast, persists all-day Tuesday. Refinements to the forecast will come throughout the coming days. Nevertheless, this is looking like a potent system for Newfoundland.

We are becoming increasingly concerned regarding a freezing rain threat for the north coast of Newfoundland. Including Fogo Island, Bonavista North & Green Bay. 10-15mm+ of freezing rain, ending as snow and strong winds could bring localized power outages.

Heavy snowfall will be the story across Northwestern Newfoundland with as much as 20-40cm falling over the hardest hit areas. Concurrent, with strong winds leading to blowing and drifting snow.

Ontario

How a Major Blizzard Stateside Will Impact Ontario

An area of low-pressure sliding out of Colorado will undergo explosive intensification through the day Wednesday. This will be an blockbuster blizzard for portions of the Upper Midwest including South Dakota & Minnesota. 40-60cm+ of snow concurrent with 70-90km/h winds will cripple the region.

BLIZZARD WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

The explosive Colorado Low that will cripple South Dakota, will thankfully be weakening as it approaches Ontario. Snow will move into the Thunder Bay, Nipigon, Atikokan, Upsala area before midnight Thursday. Accumulating snow will combine with gusty winds between 40-55km/h, through Thursday night and Friday. It will be a good day to stay home and off the roads if you can.

Moderate to heavy snow transitioning to rain across Northeastern Ontario. Northwestern Ontario sees all snow from this system. Click to navigate the map and find your region.

Wawa to Timmins will see more ice pellets and wet snow, than rain. A transition to rain showers is expected throughout Friday Afternoon.

Kapuskasing to Hearst will remain as snow, where 15-20cm is expected to fall.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO IMPACTS

Strong wind, a surge of warmer air and rainfall will be the story across Southern Ontario Friday. A cool and partly-cloudy day Thursday, with patchy mixed precipitation. Largely confined to Southwestern Ontario.

Strong wind anticipated across Southwestern Ontario Friday morning. Strong Southeasterly gusts between 70-80km/h is expected north of Lake Erie and East of Lake Huron.

Temperatures in the afternoon will spike into the double digits across Southern Ontario. The Nations Capital Region will see the temperature climb near 9c. The trade-off will be a lousy day with occasional rain or showers Thursday. There is even a risk for localized thunderstorms early in the day Friday.

Ontario

BREAKING DOWN A TRICKY FORECAST for Southern Ontario &…

Friday will be act as the calm before the storm. A pleasant day with single digit highs, light winds, and some sunshine. Beginning after midnight rain will start in the Windsor area. With a mixed bag of precipitation spreading throughout Southern Ontario during the pre-dawn & morning hours.

SYNOPSIS:

A moisture laden system will slide towards the lower Great Lakes late this evening, following along a boundary separating cool air across Southern Ontario with warm air south of Lakes Erie & Ontario. Concurrently, an arctic cold front will be descending southwards heralding the arrival of deepening trough over Ontario & the Great Lakes region for Sunday. Temperatures will be running much below seasonal Sunday, daytime highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark. Additionally, Lake-effect flurries or snow is likely across the northwesterly snow-belts.

The challenging aspect of this system will be determining how the air-masses interact. In forecasting situations like this, thickness (a function of the average virtual temperature between 1000 and 500 millibars; read more: https://bit.ly/2WykrG4) can be useful in determining precipitation types. Anywhere, along and north of the blue line will likely see rain change to wet snow. With a brief period of freezing rain or ice pellets possible. South of the red lines will see mostly rain. These lines will move southwards as we progress through the day Saturday. Meaning areas who see mostly rain near Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, may end as wet snow as the system departs.

Projected precipitation type and intensity Saturday afternoon. South of the red line will see mostly rain with this system. With a period of freezing rain centered around Montreal, where colder air at the surface will remain for a longer duration.

OKAY SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN – SNOW, RAIN, OR FREEZING RAIN?

Simply put, all of the above. Depending where in Southern Ontario or Quebec you reside.

The greatest threat for freezing rain will exist across the Ottawa and Montreal region. There’s potential for several hours of freezing rain for this area. And even a threat for appreciable accretion on untreated surfaces. The winds will be light, with temperatures teetering around freezing – largely mitigating any power outage threat.

Next, the snow. Any snow that falls will be wet, the greatest accumulations will be across the Dundalk and Haliburton highlands/highway 60. 10cm or more expected South of Georgian Bay. 10-20cm+ for the Haliburton Highlands. Across much of Southern Quebec – well north of Montreal. Mont-Tremblant National Park could see accumulations as high as 20-30cm. Highways 117, 309, and 105 will be snow covered and slick through Saturday afternoon and evening.

Projected accumulation in inches. Valid through Sunday morning.

Finally, the rain. 20-40mm will fall along the lower Great Lakes. Including the GTA, Golden Horseshoe, Southwestern Ontario, & Eastern Ontario.

Ontario

Colorado Low Threatens Snow, Heavy Rain & Strong Winds…

Don’t let the calendar fool you – a bitter sweet transition to spring is expected. The final two weeks of winter will feature drastic temperature swings and at least one notable storm system this weekend.

An area of low-pressure will form lee of the Rockies in Colorado Friday. Deepening as it tracks northeastwards through the United States towards the Great Lakes Region Saturday evening.

Key Details:
15-25mm of rain across deep Southwestern Ontario & North of Lake Erie. Rain combined with snow-melt may lead to localized flooding.
10-20cm of snow for Northern Ontario. Heaviest snow falling East of Lake Superior & across the Nickel Belt.
Strong to damaging wind gusts for Southwestern & Central Ontario.
A surge of warm air in Southern Ontario precedes wrap around strong winds & snow

*Click image to toggle zoom.

SNOW FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO

Like many of the storms this season, this system will feature appreciable snow across Northern Ontario. A large swath of 10-15cm is forecast for Wawa, Timmins and Sudbury areas. Local amounts may approach 20cm.

MESSY WINDSTORM FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

First and foremost, this is a messy system for Southern Ontario. Precipitation will move into Windsor in deep Southwestern Ontario around 6pm Saturday. Progressing Northeastwards across Southern Ontario during the evening and overnight. Main concern for along the Lake Erie shoreline will be heavy downpours combined with warmer temperatures, snow melt, and runoff. Minor flooding is possible; stretching into the GTA. Be sure to monitor any statements from your local conservation authority, as we progress through the weekend.

Strong to damaging easterly winds will develop ahead of the storm Saturday evening & overnight. The strongest wind gusts are expected East of Lake Huron. Including Goderich, where peak winds could exceed 100km/h late Saturday evening & overnight. The rest of Southern Ontario will have to contend with strong easterly winds gusting 60-90km/h through the overnight into Sunday morning. Once again, winds will strengthen out of the West Sunday, with the passage of a cold front. Frequent gusts between 50-70km/h is expected.

Considering temperatures will be teetering around the freezing mark, precipitation may begin as snow, freezing rain or ice pellets. Especially, South of Georgian Bay where elevation and heavy precipitation rates will aide in keeping temperatures below freezing for a longer duration. For Eastern Ontario, this system will bring more wet snow than rain. Refer to our forecast map for further details.

New Brunswick

Strongest Low in Decades Zeros in on the Great…

Our forecasting team is vigilantly monitoring a powerful low-pressure system expected to form North of the Texas Panhandle late this evening. The upper-level disturbance originating out of California, will coincide with a favorable setup for an explosive storm development. Read more about Panhandle Hooks’ here.

Did you know? It was an infamous Panhandle Hook which sank the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975.

This storm will feature strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and shifting ice-conditions across the Great Lakes. Almost everyone in Eastern Canada will feel the effects of this powerful storm. Read more to gain insight on how this storm may impact you.

BLOCKBUSTER BLIZZARD EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR

Our forecast team is closely monitoring a soon-to-be rapidly strengthening Panhandle Hook, sagging into the Texas Panhandle. Gathering abundant gulf moisture before trekking towards the Upper Great Lakes. The storm will experience the most intensification while tracking Northeastwards through the Upper Midwest (United States), towards Lake Superior & Northern Ontario. Coinciding with an expanding strong to damaging wind field.

Confidence is considerable for a high-impact Low for regions N and NE of Lake Superior with likely 30cm or more of blowing snow contingent with 60km/h+ wind gusts. The heaviest snowfall will likely be 30-40km inland from the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. This is bad news (or good new depending on your prerogative), when considering how much snow has already fallen across this region. Some are running out of places to even put the snow.

The fiercest winds will not correspond with the heaviest snowfall rates. Still, inland locales such as Timmins & Kapuskasing will still have to contend with extensive blowing & drifting snow. Especially, once the low tracks into Quebec, with colder air and stronger gusts arriving on the backside of the low.

There will be a line of mixing of wintry precipitation likely from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury to the QC border. Including a brief period of ice pellets and rain-showers.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Temperatures will begin to surge above freezing across Southwestern Ontario, as early as, late Saturday evening. Double-digit temperatures & strong Southwesterly winds will advance throughout the Southern half of the Province throughout the morning & afternoon. Rain-showers and even a risk of elevated thunderstorms is expected. Proceeded by, a sharp cold front & plummeting temperatures.

We anticipate extensive blowing snow and poor-visibility East of Lake Huron late Sunday evening through Monday. Avoid all unnecessary travel in the red highlighted area on our wind impact map.

The supportive track and strength of the low will herald in a significant damaging wind threat across Southern Ontario. The strongest winds could peak as high as hurricane force (120km/h), along the Northeast shore of Lake Erie. We anticipate wind gusts over 100km/h across Prince Edward County, and East of Lake Huron. Peak wind gusts will likely reach or exceed 90km/h across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Projected Peak Wind Gusts through Late Sunday. We kept these projections conservative until the storm developes..

The sudden onset of warm air, rainfall, and extreme wind gusts will bring treacherous ice conditions across the Great Lakes. Ice shoves may be damaging to infrastructure along exposed shorelines. If you participate in winter activities such as, ice fishing or snowmobiling, it would be a good idea to remove your ice hut from the Great Lakes. Avoid snowmobiling until ice conditions improve.

A NEW COASTAL LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE MARITIMES

The powerful storm sweeps through Quebec on Sunday, and will subsequently phase into a strong ‘weather bomb’ south of Yarmouth. Potentially, deepening below 970mb (967-969mb).

While the exact phasing & extend of warm air advection is not entirely set-in-stone, it appears the heaviest swaths of snowfall will likely be off the Gaspe Peninsula shoreline and into the North Atlantic, thereby mitigating what could have been 2 or more feet of snow.

Southern New Brunswick will likely experience a rain/snow/wintry mix. With amounts totaling near 10cm. Amounts increasing to 20-30cm across the Northern extent of the Province. Pockets of heavier enhancement, accompanied by similar conditions is expected across Extreme Southern Newfoundland

Timing
Western New Brunswick – Late Afternoon Sunday
Most of New Brunswick – Sunday Evening
Nova Scotia – Sunday Mid Evening
PEI – Sunday Overnight
Newfoundland – Monday

Hardest Hit
Gaspe (35-45cm)
Bathurst (25-35cm)
Edmundston (30-35cm)
Campbellton (30-35cm)
Extreme Southern Shoreline of Newfoundland (25-40cm)

DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC

A major blizzard is on-tap for much of Northern Quebec. The worst of the treacherous conditions will be felt across the mouth of the Rupert River, Southeast of James Bay. Where rural communities can expect winds over 90km/h combined with 15-25cm of freshly fallen snow. Extensive blowing/drifting snow & near-zero visibility is expected. Isolated communities across Central & Northern Quebec may become cut-off, briefly.