Category: Manitoba

Manitoba

A Weekend of Severe Thunderstorms in the Prairies Persists

Isolated severe thunderstorms expected today (Sunday, June 10th) in Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central and Eastern Saskatchewan beginning by the mid-afternoon and persisting well into the evening hours in Western Manitoba.

We have highlighted an area in orange where the greatest risk develops. Regions is yellow can expect primarily non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Note: this risk continues into Western Manitoba.

Risk factors associated with these thunderstorms include: large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected for Monday.

Severe thunderstorm risk for today expected in the orange section of our map. 

ANALYSIS

A surface low will decent across Southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning Sunday. The first low has led to rain and heavy thunderstorms in Southwestern areas of the province early this morning. At the same time, a secondary low pressure center/vort max will be deepening as it approaches Western Saskatchewan during the afternoon. A trough in the Jet-stream will be progressing Eastwards across Saskatchewan during the period.

A eastward progressing front associated with the deepening low-pressure system, will act as a trigger from the mid-afternoon through the late evening – across Central and Eastern Saskatchewan.

Deep moisture transport aided by a 30-40kt low-level Jet out of the Southeast will result in dew-points in the high teens. Concurrently, temperatures will likely rise into the high 20s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will likely build above 2000 J/KG across the warm sector, providing plentiful energy for strong thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft (a “cap”) will have to erode before storms can erupt – perhaps after peak energy.

Marginal wind shear and helicity readings, little veering with height, and a high LCL is expected to limited any tornado activity despite a south-easterly surface wind. The south-easterly flow and storm mode/track may allow for “training” – which heightens the threat for localized flooding.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has issued a map highlighting Southeastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba in a “moderate” risk for severe thunderstorms. Primary hazards include: 110km/h wind-gusts and 3-5cm hail. NOTE: these maps are still in the experimental stage. 

Near the low center (which is expected to exist in the North Battleford corridor), a soaking rainfall and heavy thunderstorms is expected. This activity should remain non-severe. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are expected.

The risk for severe thunderstorms continues Eastwards into Manitoba. Reloading again, for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario on Monday.

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– TCW

Alberta

Extreme Fire Conditions Aided by Record Heat in the…

Daytime highs around 30C – challenge record highs across the Southern Prairies this week. Little reprieve in sight from Extreme fire conditions. Locally heavy thunderstorms expected by mid-week.

EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS & RECORD HIGHS

The last full week of May will feel more like summer across the Canadian Prairies. Rising fire ratings this week, can be attributed to a large ridge in the Jet-stream – sending temperatures soaring up to 10C above seasonal. This has led to the first issuance of a Heat Warning for 2018 – for Central and Northeastern Alberta. 

Hot and dry conditions have led to extreme fire conditions across the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba).

Current Hotspots being detected by satellite show several brush, grass, and vegetation fires in Southern Manitoba – continuing into Saskatchewan.

Source: Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved May 22nd 2018.

“A hotspot is a satellite image pixel with high infrared intensity, indicating a heat source. Hotspots from known industrial sources are removed; the remaining hotspots represent vegetation fires, which can be in forest, grass, cropland, or logging debris.” – Natural Resources Canada

Fire conditions continue to worsen this week ahead of a threat for thunderstorms.

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Tuesday May 22nd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Wednesday  May 23rd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Thursday  May 24th, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

If you are a smoker, be mindful of where you throw cigarette butts. Avoid any outdoor burning or use of any source of ignition while outside.

RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK

The threat for thunderstorms develops Wednesday for Southern Saskatchewan. Moving east into Manitoba for Thursday. We are closely watching for a risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday in Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk retreats further west into Alberta for Friday and Saturday.

With thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning – an ignition source for fires.

Unfortunately, little relief from extreme fire conditions is expected due to the isolated and convective nature of thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve some – especially for Southern Saskatchewan – by late week.

We will be closely monitoring the situation.

 

 

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Alberta

Canada Spring and Summer Highlights: Summer to Arrive; Will…



Canada’s Summer Highlights; Spring Temperatures and Spring Precipitation Forecast: From TransCanada Weather

Through careful analysis of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and continental, national and global temperatures, we have formulated and depicted our predictions across the country for Spring and Summer 2018.

Spring

Atlantic Canada
A relatively active storm track across the entire region as listed, will provide ample opportunities for a mixed bag of precipitation for eastern sections, with snow for western sections through late March into early April.

Parts of New Brunswick, PEI, Western Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland and most of Labrador can expect opportunities for snow.

Temperatures will be below seasonal, particularly through early April and slowly begin to moderate from late April into May for all of Atlantic Canada.

Ontario and Quebec
A relatively active storm track will also be present particularly from late March into early April. Opportunities for snow exist, however, temperatures will likely be slightly too mild for significant snow accumulations. However, below seasonal temperatures and slightly above precipitation are expected until mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate particularly later in April and seasonal weather will become more prevalent and consistent in May.

Prairies
The Prairies will continue to remain fairly seasonal this spring with dry conditions at times, particularly later in spring; average precipitation early in the spring.

British Columbia
Much of British Columbia will experience warm surges of Pacific air with an inundation at times, of moisture from Pacific low pressure systems.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of April and May.

Summer

Atlantic Canada
An active storm track at times will provide for soaking rains and isolated severe thunderstorms at times, throughout the summer. This summer will be fairly consistently warm across the entire region with periods of hot and humid weather.

Summer will arrive, but some time will be required.

It is expected that warmth will begin to build into late June through July and August.

Ontario and Quebec
An active storm track will provide surges of heat across the region, particularly in late June through August. Severe weather will make visits at times this summer, however, it is expected the early portion of summer will remain somewhat dry, and slightly cool, with active and a widespread severe risk building from late July into August.

There is reasonable certainty that June will provide some bouts of cooler and drier weather relative to the norm.

Prairies
The Prairies will receive a typical summer; warm with periods of stiffing temperatures, severe thunderstorms and large hail and isolated tornadic risks, particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to be slightly cooler this summer, although not exceptionally cool. Surges of hot and dry weather that typically show through July-September may be somewhat limited this summer, although not non-existent.

Its not all bad news for the BC coast as moisture is expected to be to the north and south.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of June, July and August.

https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

– TCW

Manitoba

[UPDATED] Intense Snowstorm for Saskatchewan and Manitoba; >1.5 Feet+…

Past Updates:

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #1)

 

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #2)

 

Blizzard for the Prairies. (Revision #3)

A fierce snowstorm will approach the Canadian Border Sunday and linger until Tuesday across Saskatchewan and Manitoba: especially South-Central SK and MB.

A strong low pressure system originating from Colorado will move close to the aforementioned regions and intensify rapidly.

‘Colorado Lows’ are notorious for bringing intense blizzard conditions to the upper Dakotas and into the Prairies, however, they also pose a significant challenge to forecast as a slight directional change can alter the conditions dramatically.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday PM, with heavy snow occurring in the time-frame of Sunday into Monday.

Blowing snow will be of considerable concern (through Tuesday), particularly for the South-Central SK/MB region.

Depending on the final track of the ‘Colorado Low’ some ice-pellets or freezing rain may certainly mix in, as the low may get pulled more Northeastwards bringing a slight warm sector, atmospherically, into several regions.

Updated Information: 03/04/2018 @ 10:30AM

Significant snowfall to target a large swath near the SK/MB border where over 1 foot is likely. Higher elevations, although localized, could approach 2 feet.

Ice pellets and freezing rain are expected to mix with snow in Southern Manitoba and Southern Saskatchewan near the immediate Canadian/USA border, thereby limiting overall accumulations.

Dry air will also be plentiful in some regions of Southern Manitoba, therefore a few regions will likely ‘underachieve’ and may receive 10-15cm rather than 15-25cm.

Winnipeg will receive roughly 15cm of snow +/- 2-5cm. More snow will be present W and NW of the city.

It is important to remain vigilant in regards to this significant snowstorm, especially in what has been a relatively ‘quiet’ winter season across much the Prairies.

Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation extremely attentively.

Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.

Avoid all unnecessary travel across heavily impacted regions as whiteout conditions will become inevitable.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Manitoba

Dangerous Windchills for Manitoba and NW Ontario

A brief period of dangerous and life-threatening Windchills are inevitable across Central and Northern Manitoba, as well as, Northwestern Ontario.

A fierce Arctic air-mass will funnel extremely cold air from ‘way-up’ in Northern Canada down to the aforementioned regions.

Parts of Central Manitoba could experience Windchills hovering near -60C. Elsewhere, Windchills in the -50 to -55C range are probable.

It is extremely important residents bundle-up all exposed skin as frostbite can occur in under 2 minutes in these uninhabitable conditions.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather