Category: Alberta

Alberta

Canada Winter 2018-2019 Forecast: Frigid Prairies and Significant Lake-Effect…

Canada-Wide 2018-2019 Preliminary Forecast.
Finalized Outlook by Christmas!

Frigid Air and Heavy Squalls Loom

The winter across Canada for many this season is expected to be cold, particularly for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

Through careful analysis of meteorological data, we have compiled a preliminary forecast for the winter across Canada for this winter. We will issue an updated version, should the situation warrant, in December.

For many places, we expect an early start to winter. Some places in Manitoba have already received accumulating snow. For Southern Ontario, we expect accumulating snow perhaps as early as late October.

Key Highlights
– Frigid & Snowy Winter for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
– Cold & Stormy for Ontario and Quebec
– Potentially Historic Squalls for Great Lakes (NW and W Flow)
– Several Winter Storms for Maritimes and NL but Not All Snow

British Columbia
For this winter BC is expected to receive a relatively typical winter season. Normal precipitation amounts with normal temperatures will be present in the region. While a few colder outbreaks are certainly likely with some snow getting into the mainland, we expect nothing out of the ordinary.

Prairies
From Alberta to Saskatchewan to Manitoba, we expect a frigid winter overall. While Alberta is expected to receive moderating temperatures throughout the winter from Pacific air flows, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to be exceptionally cold, and at times, record-breaking with several rounds of ‘deep-freezes’. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal for Alberta, and above normal for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario & Quebec
Ontario is expected to be overall, cold this winter. Northwestern and Northern Ontario are expected to parallel the frigid air likewise to the Prairies. With the set-up of the storm track this winter, we expect more rounds of Colorado and Texas lows to infiltrate the Great Lakes and Southern Quebec for the first time in what has seemed to be a number of years.
The cold air from Manitoba and Saskatchewan will provide flourishing variables to allow a well-above and significantly active lake-effect season in an NW to W flow. Preliminary indications represent a repeat of December 2010 across the region.

Quebec is expected to receive above-normal snowfall this year as several storms track through the interior NE of the USA this year. Temperatures will become vastly more frigid through Northern regions of the province.


Maritimes and Newfoundland & Labrador
While the Maritimes and NL are expected to be active this year, it is expected at times, slightly milder air will target the regions, therefore, not all systems this year will be snow-makers. The regions will certainly be stormy this year, but several storms may end up more of a ‘wintry-mix’, rather than snowstorms. Temperatures will be slightly more moderated at times, although at times, cold bouts are certainly likely.

Territories
The Yukon is expected to receive slight benefits from Pacific air and a slight ridge at times over Western Canada/Western USA, providing relief at times relative to the typical winter in the region. Conversely, NWT and Nunavut are expected to receive normal precipitation


– TCW

Alberta

Snowflakes Fly in Alberta Wednesday Morning



Environment Canada issues Snowfall Warnings and Special Weather Statements across Central Alberta Wednesday. 

A cold front decended on the province Tuesday into Wednesday morning, sending temperatures near or below the freezing mark.


An area stretching from Slave Lake to Jasper included in Environment Canada’s snowfall warning, which may see 10-15cm of snow. 

Edmonton was awaken to temperatures near the freezing mark. Barrhead saw temperatures drop below-zero with accumulating snow.

 Several wet centimetres can be expected across the region, draped in Special Weather Statements.

https://twitter.com/_shewanders/status/1039881424558481408?s=21
As you can see clearly, there are mixed feelings about the early snowfall shared by this social media user.

Edmonton will not escape the early taste of winter, with a couple wet centimetres possible. Even Calgary, could experience a few wet flakes Wednesday.   



Alberta

Environment Canada Issues Frost Advisories in the Prairies

Environment Canada has issued a frost advisory for much of Southern Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. 

Damage to sensitive crops is possible tonight.

SASKATCHEWAN:

Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

A ridge of high pressure building over the prairies will bring clear skies and cold overnight lows to Saskatchewan Tuesday night. Overnight lows are expected to be between 0 and -3 Celsius by Wednesday morning.

Special Weather Statement for Saskatchewan

ALBERTA:

Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

Overnight lows are expected to reach near the freezing mark. Frost is possible overnight.

Take preventative measures to protect frost-sensitive plants and trees.

Frost advisories are issued when temperatures are expected to reach the freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Special Weather Statement for Alberta

Alberta

Tornado & Damaging Hail Threatens the Edmonton Region

A potent severe weather setup is expected today (July 20th 2018) in the Western Prairies. 

Thunderstorm risk map for today. The highest severe threat is highlighted in red – which includes Edmonton in a risk for tennis-ball sized hail and an isolated tornado. 

Environment Canada Discussion (PASPC):

ALBERTA 

A low pressure system developing in Alberta with an associated trough swinging through west-central Saskatchewan in the afternoon will trigger scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threat with these storms will be large hail. In the northwest section, there is a potential for supercells to develop with the potential of producing a tornado. The severe potential will last into the evening but thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight.

SASKATCHEWAN 

A low pressure system developing in Alberta with an associated trough swinging through west-central Saskatchewan in the afternoon will trigger scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threat with these storms will be large hail. In the northwest section, there is a potential for supercells to develop with the potential of producing a tornado. The severe potential will last into the evening but thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight.

Environment Canada’s Thunderstorm Outlook for today July, 20th 2018. Highlighting an extreme risk for severe thunderstorms in the Capital Region.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A low pressure system will form south of Edmonton today with an associated cold front extending southward along the northern foothills and warm front through east-central Alberta and into Saskatchewan. Severe thunderstorms will trigger along the cold front early in the afternoon. They will likely be isolated in nature at first, before becoming a severe line of thunderstorms. The warm front will track through the area in the morning followed by a trough in the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are expected to trigger along the trough in the afternoon. There is the potential for the right conditions to align near and to the east of Edmonton for a tornado to form, with the potential extending into west-central Saskatchewan, albeit, less likely than the risk in Alberta. MLCAPE values are between 1500 to 2200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear values around 30 kt with values up to 40 kt in and around the Capital region in Alberta. RDPS prog tephis are indicating idealized veering hodographs, conducive to tornado development, however, tornado formation in this area will be highly dependent on a few factors: There is the potential that the low level shear will be too much for the marginal CAPE in some areas, essentially shearing the storms apart. As well, on the Saskatchewan side, LCLs are progged to be around 1500 – 2000 m, which is a little high for tornado development, whereas, on the Alberta side, LCLs are progged to be 1000 m, which is more favourable for the formation of tornadoes. In addition, models are indicating the formation of a dryline that will bulge out into the southwestern corner of the Lloydminster region which may also be an area to watch for a tornado to develop in the later afternoon hours.

*Please note this maps and discussions are currently experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canada’s website. 

Please closely monitor Environment Canada alerts today. Take any warnings seriously and seek shelter immediately. 

We will be monitoring the situation attentively. 

Alberta

Post-Storm Summary: Alberta Severe Thunderstorms on Friday, July 13,…




INFORMATION TAKEN FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND SERVED AS A SUMMARY FOR THE INTEREST OF THE WEATHER COMMUNITY.

ALL CITIES ON THE MAP ARE ACCURATELY PLOTTED TO WITHIN ONE-MILLIONTH OF A DEGREE USING ENHANCED LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE MAPPING.

Discussion.

Severe thunderstorms moved through parts of Alberta on Friday, July 
13, 2018. The severe storms generally moved eastward in the region 
between Edmonton and Olds during the late afternoon and evening 
hours. Large hail was the main threat with these storms; there were 
frequent reports of golf ball sized hail received at the Prairie and 
Arctic Storm Prediction Centre (PASPC). Additionally, as the storms 
moved east, an elongated gust front moved quickly south giving 
strong wind gusts to many regions in central and southern Alberta 
through the late evening hours. 

The following is a summary of severe weather reports received by 
Environment Canada as of 9 P.M. MDT. 

HAIL: 

5:50 P.M. Crestomere, AB - 27 mm (Loonie) 
6:00 P.M. Ponoka, AB - 75 to 95 mm (Baseball to Softball) 

6:50 P.M. Alix, AB - 45 to 64 mm (Golf Ball to Tennis Ball) 
7:20 P.M. Stettler, AB - 40 mm (Ping Pong Ball) 

7:15 P.M. Vermillion, AB - 45 mm (Golf Ball) 

7:50 P.M. Bowden, AB - 45 mm (Golf Ball) 
7:55 P.M. Trochu, AB - 35 mm (Walnut) 

8:50 P.M. Olds, AB - 21 mm (Nickel) 

WIND: 

Bellshill, AB - 105 km/h 
Calgary International Airport - 96 km/h 
Crestomere, AB - 91 km/h 
Beiseker, AB - 93 km/h 
Strathmore, AB - 80 km/h

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/PASPC
Alberta

[UPDATED] Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Prairies

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today (Monday June 25th, 2018) and tomorrow (Tuesday June 26th, 2018) in the Prairies.

MONDAY:
A cold front will act as a trigger for severe thunderstorms today in Alberta.

The greatest risk for severe will center itself north of highway 43 and along and west of highway 63. Much of the severe activity looks to be staying south of Fort McMurray.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has placed this region in a “severe” risk on their map. Highlighting the risk for 3-6cm hail. Other threats include damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, and frequent lightning.

Environment Canada forecast map for today – highlighting the severe risk in Alberta. Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage and are not currently operational.

TUESDAY:
A disturbance and associated cold front will move Eastwards out of Alberta tonight into Saskatchewan. The disturbance is expected to deepen as it centres itself over Central Saskatchewan Tuesday Afternoon.

The cold front will act as a trigger for thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba between 2pm and 8pm – West to East.

Some of these storms could turn severe with frequent lightning, large hail, torrential rainfall and strong winds.

Environment Canadas Convective Discussion for Tuesday, June 26th.

Alberta

Updated Summer Forecast: Heat Expected to Dominate Ontario, Manitoba…


2018 Canada Summer Outlook and Higlights Depicted Below —- July and August

Key Highlights

– Heat Builds for Northern, Southwestern, Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec Beginning June 29th.

– Many Canadians are Expected to Receive a Warm or Hot July 1st (Canada Day!).

– Unusually Dry for Ontario and Quebec.

– Intermittent Rounds of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms for MB, ON, and QC.

– Decently Warm for SK and AB; Some Periods of Very Warm to Hot Weather.

– Wet BC Coast; Warmer and Drier Interior.

– Newfoundland and Labrador Likely to be Disappointed this Summer Due to Cooler and Wetter Conditions.

– ‘Bone-Dry’ for the Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

*Some Potential for Record-Breaking Heat (the Upper 30s) for Parts of ON and Parts of QC for the Last Week of July or 1st Week of August.

Brief Discussion

We at TCW are expecting overall, the country to be slightly above seasonal for the majority of the two months. We expect consistent heat to surge into Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. While the heat will be slightly less humid as is typical, the heat will be quite consistent for the months of July and August.

It is expected that Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec will be quite dry for these two months, but, become inundated with intermittent days of isolated severe thunderstorms as a result of day-time heating.

The Maritimes are expected to warm-up as the summer progresses, while Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to remain cool and somewhat wet.

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have a few periods of hot weather (especially Saskatchewan), however temperatures will overall, be more warm to very-warm than hot.

British Columbia will remain seasonal and wet near the immediate coast, with the interior being drier and a few degrees above seasonal.

The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut will be slightly above seasonal and very dry.

– TCW

Alberta

Extreme Fire Conditions Aided by Record Heat in the…

Daytime highs around 30C – challenge record highs across the Southern Prairies this week. Little reprieve in sight from Extreme fire conditions. Locally heavy thunderstorms expected by mid-week.

EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS & RECORD HIGHS

The last full week of May will feel more like summer across the Canadian Prairies. Rising fire ratings this week, can be attributed to a large ridge in the Jet-stream – sending temperatures soaring up to 10C above seasonal. This has led to the first issuance of a Heat Warning for 2018 – for Central and Northeastern Alberta. 

Hot and dry conditions have led to extreme fire conditions across the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba).

Current Hotspots being detected by satellite show several brush, grass, and vegetation fires in Southern Manitoba – continuing into Saskatchewan.

Source: Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved May 22nd 2018.

“A hotspot is a satellite image pixel with high infrared intensity, indicating a heat source. Hotspots from known industrial sources are removed; the remaining hotspots represent vegetation fires, which can be in forest, grass, cropland, or logging debris.” – Natural Resources Canada

Fire conditions continue to worsen this week ahead of a threat for thunderstorms.

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Tuesday May 22nd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Wednesday  May 23rd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Thursday  May 24th, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

If you are a smoker, be mindful of where you throw cigarette butts. Avoid any outdoor burning or use of any source of ignition while outside.

RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK

The threat for thunderstorms develops Wednesday for Southern Saskatchewan. Moving east into Manitoba for Thursday. We are closely watching for a risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday in Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk retreats further west into Alberta for Friday and Saturday.

With thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning – an ignition source for fires.

Unfortunately, little relief from extreme fire conditions is expected due to the isolated and convective nature of thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve some – especially for Southern Saskatchewan – by late week.

We will be closely monitoring the situation.

 

 

Attachment.png

Alberta

Canada Spring and Summer Highlights: Summer to Arrive; Will…



Canada’s Summer Highlights; Spring Temperatures and Spring Precipitation Forecast: From TransCanada Weather

Through careful analysis of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and continental, national and global temperatures, we have formulated and depicted our predictions across the country for Spring and Summer 2018.

Spring

Atlantic Canada
A relatively active storm track across the entire region as listed, will provide ample opportunities for a mixed bag of precipitation for eastern sections, with snow for western sections through late March into early April.

Parts of New Brunswick, PEI, Western Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland and most of Labrador can expect opportunities for snow.

Temperatures will be below seasonal, particularly through early April and slowly begin to moderate from late April into May for all of Atlantic Canada.

Ontario and Quebec
A relatively active storm track will also be present particularly from late March into early April. Opportunities for snow exist, however, temperatures will likely be slightly too mild for significant snow accumulations. However, below seasonal temperatures and slightly above precipitation are expected until mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate particularly later in April and seasonal weather will become more prevalent and consistent in May.

Prairies
The Prairies will continue to remain fairly seasonal this spring with dry conditions at times, particularly later in spring; average precipitation early in the spring.

British Columbia
Much of British Columbia will experience warm surges of Pacific air with an inundation at times, of moisture from Pacific low pressure systems.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of April and May.

Summer

Atlantic Canada
An active storm track at times will provide for soaking rains and isolated severe thunderstorms at times, throughout the summer. This summer will be fairly consistently warm across the entire region with periods of hot and humid weather.

Summer will arrive, but some time will be required.

It is expected that warmth will begin to build into late June through July and August.

Ontario and Quebec
An active storm track will provide surges of heat across the region, particularly in late June through August. Severe weather will make visits at times this summer, however, it is expected the early portion of summer will remain somewhat dry, and slightly cool, with active and a widespread severe risk building from late July into August.

There is reasonable certainty that June will provide some bouts of cooler and drier weather relative to the norm.

Prairies
The Prairies will receive a typical summer; warm with periods of stiffing temperatures, severe thunderstorms and large hail and isolated tornadic risks, particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to be slightly cooler this summer, although not exceptionally cool. Surges of hot and dry weather that typically show through July-September may be somewhat limited this summer, although not non-existent.

Its not all bad news for the BC coast as moisture is expected to be to the north and south.

Northern Territories
The NWT are expected to be seasonal and dry for much of June, July and August.

https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

– TCW

Alberta

Beautiful Weather Arrives in Alberta and British Columbia

Temperatures soar above freezing today in the Rockies and Foothills – including Banff, Jasper and Calgary. Double-digit highs for Lower Mainland and Southern Interior British Columbia today and Tuesday. Dense fog this morning in Southeast Alberta degrades to abundant sunshine.

A broad area of high pressure combined with plentiful sunshine, and light changeable winds, will send temperatures soaring above freezing today and Tuesday across Southern British Columbia and Southern Alberta.

Overnight-lows in Calgary, Red Deer, Airdrie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat – and much of Southern Alberta were close to or below negative 10c. The same locales today will be in the upper single digits. The warm above seasonal weather will persist into Tuesday. Temperatures will (once again) fall well below freezing tonight, quickly rising into the upper single digits Tuesday Afternoon. Pleasant temperatures are expected to persist for much of the week.

Much of the same conditions is expected for Southern British Columbia. Locales in the Lower Mainland – including Abbotsford can expect highs in the teens today.

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Monday, March 12, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Tuesday, March 13, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

It will be an excellent day to get outside and enjoy some needed sunshine. If you like this story, share the ‘warm weather’ with your friends and family!

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter @TransCANWeather.

– TCW