Author: Troy Boone

Manitoba

Heavy Thunderstorms Expected in Southeastern Prairies

Widespread heavy to severe thunderstorms likely late this evening – continuing into the overnight hours in Southern Manitoba and Southeastern Saskatchewan. 

— 

A stationary front this afternoon in Northern Dakota will separate warm, moist air south of the international border, with warm, drier air in Southern Manitoba. Along this front, there is a risk of isolated severe storms in North Dakota this afternoon – staying stateside. 

A deepening system out of Rockies will trigger severe thunderstorms stateside and a second, more significant/widespread risk of thunderstorms this evening/overnight.

Environment Canada (PASPC) Thunderstorm Outlook. Valid 12pm Thursday to 6am Friday. Highlighting the risk for severe thunderstorms. Note: these forecast maps are still experimental and are not currently operational on Environment Canadas website. 

A second wave which is forecast to develop late in the day, stateside, is the one we are watching closely. Moist and unstable air creeps across the border into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba this evening. The northern extent of the second wave is expected to cross the international border into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba sometime around midnight. 

There is still some uncertainty regarding evolution and timing of this convective complex. Such complexes also known as MCSs or MCCs – Mesoscale Convective Complex; are notorious for producing intense frequent lightning, flash flooding, and damaging to destructive winds. Large hail is also a possibility, during the initial storm development.

The risk moves out of Southeastern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario pre-dawn Friday into Friday morning.

We will be monitoring the situation attentively into this evening and overnight. 

Alberta

[UPDATED] Severe Thunderstorms Possible in the Prairies

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today (Monday June 25th, 2018) and tomorrow (Tuesday June 26th, 2018) in the Prairies.

—

MONDAY:
A cold front will act as a trigger for severe thunderstorms today in Alberta.

The greatest risk for severe will center itself north of highway 43 and along and west of highway 63. Much of the severe activity looks to be staying south of Fort McMurray.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has placed this region in a “severe” risk on their map. Highlighting the risk for 3-6cm hail. Other threats include damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, and frequent lightning.

Environment Canada forecast map for today – highlighting the severe risk in Alberta. Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage and are not currently operational.

TUESDAY:
A disturbance and associated cold front will move Eastwards out of Alberta tonight into Saskatchewan. The disturbance is expected to deepen as it centres itself over Central Saskatchewan Tuesday Afternoon.

The cold front will act as a trigger for thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba between 2pm and 8pm – West to East.

Some of these storms could turn severe with frequent lightning, large hail, torrential rainfall and strong winds.

Environment Canadas Convective Discussion for Tuesday, June 26th.

Manitoba

Risk of Damaging Hail and Tornadoes in the Prairies

Severe thunderstorms possible today (June 14th, 2018) in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk continues across Southern Manitoba throughout the evening and overnight.

—

A disturbance is forecast to move into Saskatchewan today from Alberta. At the same time, a surface low will be moving northwards from the United States. HIGH levels of energy will build south of an associated warm front.

Although this warm front isn’t expected to make it far north of the border (keeping high amounts of energy stateside), moderate energy amounts, and an environment conductive to severe weather is expected. Including discrete cells and supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h, toonie to golf-ball sized hail, and a risk for 1 or more tornadoe(s). Damaging hail is currently what we are most concerned about.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has highlighted the risk for 3-5cm hail, 90-100km/h wind, and an isolated tornado in their “moderate” severe risk zone (highlighted in orange). Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage.

We will be closely watching an area south of a line from Carlyle to Antler to Souris between 5pm-9pm. An isolated severe threat will continue in southern Manitoba through the evening and overnight, as cells become more linear (MCC – Mesoscale Convective Complex) – increasing a chance for damaging winds, torrential rainfall, hail and frequent lightning.

– TCW

Ontario

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Builds in Southern Ontario

Showers and a risk of severe thunderstorms for Southern Ontario. Heavy rainfall from East of Lake Superior to the Quebec border Wednesday (June 13th, 2018).

—

A strengthening low pressure system will track East of Lake Superior through the Nickel Belt Wednesday, bringing a risk for heavy rainfall for Northern Ontario and a risk of severe thunderstorms in Southern Ontario. 

WHAT’S EXPECTED 

A swath near the low track, from East of Lake Superior to the Quebec border will likely see rainfall amounts of 25-50mm between Wednesday morning to evening. 

Further south, across Southern Ontario – there will be 2 rounds of precipitation. The first, along a warm front as it edges north into Southwestern Ontario, bringing scattered showers Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Once the warm front moves north, there will be a clearing allowing for sunny breaks and energy to build ahead of a cold front acting as a trigger for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

A window for a low tornado threat is possible from mid to late afternoon in our red highlighted area. The greatest threat will be along a “triple-point” – between 1pm and 6pm. This region may expand to include municipalities near the Lake Ontario shoreline. 

Environment Canada (OSPC) is calling for a “moderate” risk of severe thunderstorms. The primary threats according to their risk map is damaging winds up to 100km/h. Please note: these maps are still in the experimental stage. 

STRONG WINDS

After the passage of the cold front the low will continue to deepen as it moves into Quebec. Strong wrap around winds will develop Wednesday evening and overnight. Gusts between 60-80km/h are expected across much of Southwestern, and South-central Ontario. Localized gusts to 90km/h are possible in higher elevation South of Georgian Bay, as well as, near the lakeshore. 

Manitoba

A Weekend of Severe Thunderstorms in the Prairies Persists

Isolated severe thunderstorms expected today (Sunday, June 10th) in Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

—

Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central and Eastern Saskatchewan beginning by the mid-afternoon and persisting well into the evening hours in Western Manitoba.

We have highlighted an area in orange where the greatest risk develops. Regions is yellow can expect primarily non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Note: this risk continues into Western Manitoba.

Risk factors associated with these thunderstorms include: large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected for Monday.

Severe thunderstorm risk for today expected in the orange section of our map. 

ANALYSIS

A surface low will decent across Southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning Sunday. The first low has led to rain and heavy thunderstorms in Southwestern areas of the province early this morning. At the same time, a secondary low pressure center/vort max will be deepening as it approaches Western Saskatchewan during the afternoon. A trough in the Jet-stream will be progressing Eastwards across Saskatchewan during the period.

A eastward progressing front associated with the deepening low-pressure system, will act as a trigger from the mid-afternoon through the late evening – across Central and Eastern Saskatchewan.

Deep moisture transport aided by a 30-40kt low-level Jet out of the Southeast will result in dew-points in the high teens. Concurrently, temperatures will likely rise into the high 20s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will likely build above 2000 J/KG across the warm sector, providing plentiful energy for strong thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft (a “cap”) will have to erode before storms can erupt – perhaps after peak energy.

Marginal wind shear and helicity readings, little veering with height, and a high LCL is expected to limited any tornado activity despite a south-easterly surface wind. The south-easterly flow and storm mode/track may allow for “training” – which heightens the threat for localized flooding.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has issued a map highlighting Southeastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba in a “moderate” risk for severe thunderstorms. Primary hazards include: 110km/h wind-gusts and 3-5cm hail. NOTE: these maps are still in the experimental stage. 

Near the low center (which is expected to exist in the North Battleford corridor), a soaking rainfall and heavy thunderstorms is expected. This activity should remain non-severe. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are expected.

The risk for severe thunderstorms continues Eastwards into Manitoba. Reloading again, for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario on Monday.

Like what we do? Help us grow – share us with your friends and family.

– TCW

Ontario

The Remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto Approach the Great…

Alberto has been blamed for flash flooding, mudslides and power outages in parts of the Southern United States. The remnants of Alberto will churn into Michigan this evening – increasing humidity readings and creating unsettled conditions for Southern Ontario, beginning late this evening.

High dew-point values will envelop much of Southern Ontario Wednesday through Thursday. Overnight lows near or above 20C Wednesday night, coupled with dew-points in the high teens, will lead to stifling conditions in doors for residences without air-conditioning or central-air.

High humidity with temperatures in the middle to high teens will act as fuel for Thunderstorms Wednesday night in Southwestern Ontario – with a widespread risk for Thursday morning through evening for the rest of Southern Ontario.

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Alberto will act as a trigger Wednesday night and Thursday. As the remnant low approaches Michigan, bands of showers and thunderstorms will wrap around the low.

What is left of Tropical Storm Alberto as it churns north – towards Michigan. Still displaying well defined circulation and heavy rainfall. 

On Thursday, the low will coalesce will a cold front and get absorbed by the Jet-stream. Upper-level energy and a cold front is expected to act as a trigger for widespread thunderstorms, some of which could turn severe. The primary risk with any thunderstorms that develop Thursday will be torrential rainfall and gusty winds. We will be watching Southwestern Ontario where rainfall could be an issue with minor flooding concerns.

A secondary cold front passage is expected Friday – which may act as a trigger for another round of thunderstorms. Again, rainfall will be the primary concern. Small hail is also a possibility.

It’s important to note, the next couple days aren’t expected to be a wash-out for everyone. Some locales may only see a few millimetres of rain. Whereas other locales, who receive several rounds of thunderstorms or training thunderstorms, could see locally 50mm or more.

Some solace from the humidity is expected by Saturday. Temperatures return to normal with brilliant sunshine and no humidity.

NORTHERN ONTARIO

A deep-layer of tropical moisture will move well north into Canada. Reaching as far North as James Bay and Northern Quebec. Heavy rainfall is expected along a boundary between Lake Superior and James Bay continuing into Northern Quebec. Totals rainfall amounts between 40-75mm are expected in the next 48 hours in the region.

Alberta

Extreme Fire Conditions Aided by Record Heat in the…

Daytime highs around 30C – challenge record highs across the Southern Prairies this week. Little reprieve in sight from Extreme fire conditions. Locally heavy thunderstorms expected by mid-week.

EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS & RECORD HIGHS

The last full week of May will feel more like summer across the Canadian Prairies. Rising fire ratings this week, can be attributed to a large ridge in the Jet-stream – sending temperatures soaring up to 10C above seasonal. This has led to the first issuance of a Heat Warning for 2018 – for Central and Northeastern Alberta. 

Hot and dry conditions have led to extreme fire conditions across the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba).

Current Hotspots being detected by satellite show several brush, grass, and vegetation fires in Southern Manitoba – continuing into Saskatchewan.

Source: Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved May 22nd 2018.

“A hotspot is a satellite image pixel with high infrared intensity, indicating a heat source. Hotspots from known industrial sources are removed; the remaining hotspots represent vegetation fires, which can be in forest, grass, cropland, or logging debris.” – Natural Resources Canada

Fire conditions continue to worsen this week ahead of a threat for thunderstorms.

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Tuesday May 22nd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Wednesday  May 23rd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Thursday  May 24th, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

If you are a smoker, be mindful of where you throw cigarette butts. Avoid any outdoor burning or use of any source of ignition while outside.

RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK

The threat for thunderstorms develops Wednesday for Southern Saskatchewan. Moving east into Manitoba for Thursday. We are closely watching for a risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday in Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk retreats further west into Alberta for Friday and Saturday.

With thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning – an ignition source for fires.

Unfortunately, little relief from extreme fire conditions is expected due to the isolated and convective nature of thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve some – especially for Southern Saskatchewan – by late week.

We will be closely monitoring the situation.

 

 

Attachment.png

​

Ontario

Thunderstorms, Locally Heavy Rainfall & Frequent Lightning for Southern…

Rain and thunderstorms expected early Tuesday (May 15, 2018) in Southern Ontario.

A complex of rain and thunderstorms is developing this hour in the Midwestern United States. This weather system is expected to push East late this evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms after midnight.

Ahead of this system, humidity levels will increase – with temperatures into the high teens lingering late this evening and overnight.

TIMING:

Windsor to Goderich – approximately 1am Tuesday.

Port Rowan to K/W to Shelburne – approximately 3am Tuesday.

GTA to Barrie – approximately 4am Tuesday.

Peterborough to Eastern Ontario – after 5am Tuesday.

Kingston to Ottawa – approximately 9am Tuesday.

IMPACTS:

Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning for communities impacted by the complex of rainfall and thunderstorms tonight. A lessor threat for small hail and gusty winds also exists.

Due to already saturated soil, and rainfall intensity, a Special Weather Statement has been issued north of Lake Erie.

Rainfall totals between 20-40mm is expected north of Lake Erie. Locally, up to 50mm is possible. Elsewhere, expect 15+mm.

——

Like what we do? Consider sharing us with your friends and family or support us on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/transcanadaweather

– TCW

New Brunswick

Water Levels on Saint John River Surpass 45 Year…

Parts of New Brunswick have been inundated with flooding after heavy rainfall, warm temperatures and ice jams lead to rapidly rising water levels. 

Heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms have further exacerbated flooding conditions in parts of New Brunswick. 

“Ahmed Dassouki, operations director with New Brunswick Transportation and Infrastructure, said there are 50 roads affected by the flooding. One of the worst is Route 105 in the Maugerville and Jemseg area.” – CBC.ca

This number has been increasing throughout the last several days, with the closure of numerous roads and bridges. Including a portion of the TransCanada Highway.

Fredericton has been hit especially hard – with current water levels on the Saint John River surpassing super-flood levels seen in 1973. Several roads and properties are experiencing flooding. Basement flooding has also been reported in the city. 

The Saint John River – stretching from Maine, USA to the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick. Retrieved from Wikimedia.org

The New Brunswick Emergency Management Organization expects water levels on the Saint John River to continue to rise this coming weekend.

With warm weather continuing, additional rainfall in the forecast, and snowmelt run-off draining into the Saint John River (from Northwestern New Brunswick), communities along the river and its tributaries should pay close attention to rapidly rising water levels. Tributaries include the Tobique River, Jemseg River, Belleisle Bay, Kennebecasis River, Allagash River, Aroostook River, and the Nerepis River.

Mark Belliveau, Red Cross’s deputy director of disaster management for Atlantic Canada, said 13 residences have been evacuated in the province so far and fears that number could increase. If anyone is displaced due to flooding, and do not have the means to find accommodation contact 1-800-863-6582 for help.

IBC Atlantic recommends turning off power in areas of your home impacted by flooding. The best way to accomplish this would be to kill the affected areas directly at the breaker.

 

Alberta

Beautiful Weather Arrives in Alberta and British Columbia

Temperatures soar above freezing today in the Rockies and Foothills – including Banff, Jasper and Calgary. Double-digit highs for Lower Mainland and Southern Interior British Columbia today and Tuesday. Dense fog this morning in Southeast Alberta degrades to abundant sunshine.

A broad area of high pressure combined with plentiful sunshine, and light changeable winds, will send temperatures soaring above freezing today and Tuesday across Southern British Columbia and Southern Alberta.

Overnight-lows in Calgary, Red Deer, Airdrie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat – and much of Southern Alberta were close to or below negative 10c. The same locales today will be in the upper single digits. The warm above seasonal weather will persist into Tuesday. Temperatures will (once again) fall well below freezing tonight, quickly rising into the upper single digits Tuesday Afternoon. Pleasant temperatures are expected to persist for much of the week.

Much of the same conditions is expected for Southern British Columbia. Locales in the Lower Mainland – including Abbotsford can expect highs in the teens today.

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Monday, March 12, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Tuesday, March 13, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

It will be an excellent day to get outside and enjoy some needed sunshine. If you like this story, share the ‘warm weather’ with your friends and family!

—

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter @TransCANWeather.

– TCW