Author: Troy Boone

Manitoba

A Weekend of Severe Thunderstorms in the Prairies Persists

Isolated severe thunderstorms expected today (Sunday, June 10th) in Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central and Eastern Saskatchewan beginning by the mid-afternoon and persisting well into the evening hours in Western Manitoba.

We have highlighted an area in orange where the greatest risk develops. Regions is yellow can expect primarily non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Note: this risk continues into Western Manitoba.

Risk factors associated with these thunderstorms include: large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected for Monday.

Severe thunderstorm risk for today expected in the orange section of our map. 

ANALYSIS

A surface low will decent across Southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning Sunday. The first low has led to rain and heavy thunderstorms in Southwestern areas of the province early this morning. At the same time, a secondary low pressure center/vort max will be deepening as it approaches Western Saskatchewan during the afternoon. A trough in the Jet-stream will be progressing Eastwards across Saskatchewan during the period.

A eastward progressing front associated with the deepening low-pressure system, will act as a trigger from the mid-afternoon through the late evening – across Central and Eastern Saskatchewan.

Deep moisture transport aided by a 30-40kt low-level Jet out of the Southeast will result in dew-points in the high teens. Concurrently, temperatures will likely rise into the high 20s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will likely build above 2000 J/KG across the warm sector, providing plentiful energy for strong thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft (a “cap”) will have to erode before storms can erupt – perhaps after peak energy.

Marginal wind shear and helicity readings, little veering with height, and a high LCL is expected to limited any tornado activity despite a south-easterly surface wind. The south-easterly flow and storm mode/track may allow for “training” – which heightens the threat for localized flooding.

Environment Canada (PASPC) has issued a map highlighting Southeastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba in a “moderate” risk for severe thunderstorms. Primary hazards include: 110km/h wind-gusts and 3-5cm hail. NOTE: these maps are still in the experimental stage. 

Near the low center (which is expected to exist in the North Battleford corridor), a soaking rainfall and heavy thunderstorms is expected. This activity should remain non-severe. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are expected.

The risk for severe thunderstorms continues Eastwards into Manitoba. Reloading again, for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario on Monday.

Like what we do? Help us grow – share us with your friends and family.

– TCW

Ontario

The Remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto Approach the Great…

Alberto has been blamed for flash flooding, mudslides and power outages in parts of the Southern United States. The remnants of Alberto will churn into Michigan this evening – increasing humidity readings and creating unsettled conditions for Southern Ontario, beginning late this evening.

High dew-point values will envelop much of Southern Ontario Wednesday through Thursday. Overnight lows near or above 20C Wednesday night, coupled with dew-points in the high teens, will lead to stifling conditions in doors for residences without air-conditioning or central-air.

High humidity with temperatures in the middle to high teens will act as fuel for Thunderstorms Wednesday night in Southwestern Ontario – with a widespread risk for Thursday morning through evening for the rest of Southern Ontario.

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Alberto will act as a trigger Wednesday night and Thursday. As the remnant low approaches Michigan, bands of showers and thunderstorms will wrap around the low.

What is left of Tropical Storm Alberto as it churns north – towards Michigan. Still displaying well defined circulation and heavy rainfall. 

On Thursday, the low will coalesce will a cold front and get absorbed by the Jet-stream. Upper-level energy and a cold front is expected to act as a trigger for widespread thunderstorms, some of which could turn severe. The primary risk with any thunderstorms that develop Thursday will be torrential rainfall and gusty winds. We will be watching Southwestern Ontario where rainfall could be an issue with minor flooding concerns.

A secondary cold front passage is expected Friday – which may act as a trigger for another round of thunderstorms. Again, rainfall will be the primary concern. Small hail is also a possibility.

It’s important to note, the next couple days aren’t expected to be a wash-out for everyone. Some locales may only see a few millimetres of rain. Whereas other locales, who receive several rounds of thunderstorms or training thunderstorms, could see locally 50mm or more.

Some solace from the humidity is expected by Saturday. Temperatures return to normal with brilliant sunshine and no humidity.

NORTHERN ONTARIO

A deep-layer of tropical moisture will move well north into Canada. Reaching as far North as James Bay and Northern Quebec. Heavy rainfall is expected along a boundary between Lake Superior and James Bay continuing into Northern Quebec. Totals rainfall amounts between 40-75mm are expected in the next 48 hours in the region.

Alberta

Extreme Fire Conditions Aided by Record Heat in the…

Daytime highs around 30C – challenge record highs across the Southern Prairies this week. Little reprieve in sight from Extreme fire conditions. Locally heavy thunderstorms expected by mid-week.

EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS & RECORD HIGHS

The last full week of May will feel more like summer across the Canadian Prairies. Rising fire ratings this week, can be attributed to a large ridge in the Jet-stream – sending temperatures soaring up to 10C above seasonal. This has led to the first issuance of a Heat Warning for 2018 – for Central and Northeastern Alberta. 

Hot and dry conditions have led to extreme fire conditions across the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba).

Current Hotspots being detected by satellite show several brush, grass, and vegetation fires in Southern Manitoba – continuing into Saskatchewan.

Source: Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved May 22nd 2018.

“A hotspot is a satellite image pixel with high infrared intensity, indicating a heat source. Hotspots from known industrial sources are removed; the remaining hotspots represent vegetation fires, which can be in forest, grass, cropland, or logging debris.” – Natural Resources Canada

Fire conditions continue to worsen this week ahead of a threat for thunderstorms.

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Tuesday May 22nd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Wednesday  May 23rd, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

Fire Danger & Forecast High for Thursday  May 24th, 2018.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Source: Darksky.net

If you are a smoker, be mindful of where you throw cigarette butts. Avoid any outdoor burning or use of any source of ignition while outside.

RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK

The threat for thunderstorms develops Wednesday for Southern Saskatchewan. Moving east into Manitoba for Thursday. We are closely watching for a risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday in Southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk retreats further west into Alberta for Friday and Saturday.

With thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning – an ignition source for fires.

Unfortunately, little relief from extreme fire conditions is expected due to the isolated and convective nature of thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to improve some – especially for Southern Saskatchewan – by late week.

We will be closely monitoring the situation.

 

 

Attachment.png

Ontario

Thunderstorms, Locally Heavy Rainfall & Frequent Lightning for Southern…

Rain and thunderstorms expected early Tuesday (May 15, 2018) in Southern Ontario.

A complex of rain and thunderstorms is developing this hour in the Midwestern United States. This weather system is expected to push East late this evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms after midnight.

Ahead of this system, humidity levels will increase – with temperatures into the high teens lingering late this evening and overnight.

TIMING:

Windsor to Goderich approximately 1am Tuesday.

Port Rowan to K/W to Shelburne approximately 3am Tuesday.

GTA to Barrieapproximately 4am Tuesday.

Peterborough to Eastern Ontarioafter 5am Tuesday.

Kingston to Ottawa approximately 9am Tuesday.

IMPACTS:

Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning for communities impacted by the complex of rainfall and thunderstorms tonight. A lessor threat for small hail and gusty winds also exists.

Due to already saturated soil, and rainfall intensity, a Special Weather Statement has been issued north of Lake Erie.

Rainfall totals between 20-40mm is expected north of Lake Erie. Locally, up to 50mm is possible. Elsewhere, expect 15+mm.

——

Like what we do? Consider sharing us with your friends and family or support us on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/transcanadaweather

– TCW

New Brunswick

Water Levels on Saint John River Surpass 45 Year…

Parts of New Brunswick have been inundated with flooding after heavy rainfall, warm temperatures and ice jams lead to rapidly rising water levels. 

Heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms have further exacerbated flooding conditions in parts of New Brunswick. 

“Ahmed Dassouki, operations director with New Brunswick Transportation and Infrastructure, said there are 50 roads affected by the flooding. One of the worst is Route 105 in the Maugerville and Jemseg area.” – CBC.ca

This number has been increasing throughout the last several days, with the closure of numerous roads and bridges. Including a portion of the TransCanada Highway.

Fredericton has been hit especially hard – with current water levels on the Saint John River surpassing super-flood levels seen in 1973. Several roads and properties are experiencing flooding. Basement flooding has also been reported in the city. 

The Saint John River – stretching from Maine, USA to the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick. Retrieved from Wikimedia.org

The New Brunswick Emergency Management Organization expects water levels on the Saint John River to continue to rise this coming weekend.

With warm weather continuing, additional rainfall in the forecast, and snowmelt run-off draining into the Saint John River (from Northwestern New Brunswick), communities along the river and its tributaries should pay close attention to rapidly rising water levels. Tributaries include the Tobique River, Jemseg River, Belleisle Bay, Kennebecasis River, Allagash River, Aroostook River, and the Nerepis River.

Mark Belliveau, Red Cross’s deputy director of disaster management for Atlantic Canada, said 13 residences have been evacuated in the province so far and fears that number could increase. If anyone is displaced due to flooding, and do not have the means to find accommodation contact 1-800-863-6582 for help.

IBC Atlantic recommends turning off power in areas of your home impacted by flooding. The best way to accomplish this would be to kill the affected areas directly at the breaker.

 

Alberta

Beautiful Weather Arrives in Alberta and British Columbia

Temperatures soar above freezing today in the Rockies and Foothills – including Banff, Jasper and Calgary. Double-digit highs for Lower Mainland and Southern Interior British Columbia today and Tuesday. Dense fog this morning in Southeast Alberta degrades to abundant sunshine.

A broad area of high pressure combined with plentiful sunshine, and light changeable winds, will send temperatures soaring above freezing today and Tuesday across Southern British Columbia and Southern Alberta.

Overnight-lows in Calgary, Red Deer, Airdrie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat – and much of Southern Alberta were close to or below negative 10c. The same locales today will be in the upper single digits. The warm above seasonal weather will persist into Tuesday. Temperatures will (once again) fall well below freezing tonight, quickly rising into the upper single digits Tuesday Afternoon. Pleasant temperatures are expected to persist for much of the week.

Much of the same conditions is expected for Southern British Columbia. Locales in the Lower Mainland – including Abbotsford can expect highs in the teens today.

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Monday, March 12, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

Forecast daytime-high temperatures Tuesday, March 13, 2018. Zoom-in on mobile to navigate to your location. Courtesy of darksky.net

It will be an excellent day to get outside and enjoy some needed sunshine. If you like this story, share the ‘warm weather’ with your friends and family!

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter @TransCANWeather.

– TCW

New Brunswick

[UPDATED] Unsettled Pattern Arrives in Eastern Canada

Unsettled week ahead for the Maritimes to Ontario, including Quebec.

A formidable late winter snow storm has dropped impressive snowfall totals across parts of the Canadian Prairies in recent days. The same storm system has weakened and stalled over the Great Lakes, while aiding in the formation of a new surface low that tracked into the Maritimes.

The newly-formed system tracked up the Eastern Seaboard concurrently as a trough sits over the Great Lakes, becoming a weather maker for much of Eastern Canada.

ONTARIO

Predominantly cloudy conditions, with periods of flurries and wet snow continues Thursday and Friday across Southern and Northeastern Ontario. Trace amounts are expected for most, but parts of Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario could see several day totals approach 10-20cm. Actual ground accumulation will be less considering melting and settling.

—-

A more substantial in addition to localized snowfall threat will develop Wednesday morning, spanning parts of southwest Ontario. As a result of moisture enhancement off of the Great Lakes and a stalled trough over the region. A few wet centimetres is likely to accumulate east of Lake Huron. The unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps Friday. 5-15 centimetres of accumulation spanning the work week is expected. Highest totals away from the lakeshore and in regions of higher elevation.

MARITIMES

A moisture-laden system approaching the Bay of Fundy will continue to spread snow and rain across the Maritimes. Moderate snowfall continues to impact central Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick. An additional 3-8cm of wet snow is expected to accumulate today, before this low tracks north. Precipitation will likely end as rain showers as temperatures warm. The heaviest totals from this system will be across a swath of central New Brunswick where 15-20cm is expected.

A second powerful storm system is expected to develop Friday lasting into Sunday. Strong winds gusting 50-70km/h and heavy snowfall amounting to an additional 10-25cm will be a concern.

Snow is expected to begin across Nova Scotia and PEI, transitioning to rain as the warm sector of the storm continues north throughout the day Thursday. Highest accumulations are expected in Cape Breton. Elsewhere, several wet centimetres will fall before a changeover to rainfall. There is still some uncertainties in exact track of this system(s). Once forecast confident increases, we will publish a region specific forecast for the maritimes promptly.

Primarily snowfall is expected in central and northern New Brunswick, with a changeover to rainfall near the Bay of Fundy.

QUEBEC

Flurries and light snowfall continue in Southwestern Quebec. A retrograding coastal low moving west-wards towards the Saint Lawrence river Thursday into Friday morning, will being heavier snow to Southeast Quebec and the Eastern Townships. Total accumulations are expected to be in the 10-20cm range by Friday evening.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.

Nova Scotia

Powerful Winds; Fierce Waves for Southern Nova Scotia

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to coalesce into a powerful coastal low through Friday. A new low pressure center will develop near Cape Cod this morning, intensifying into an expansive coastal wind storm.

Strong north-easterly winds will intensify throughout Friday.

Along the Atlantic coastline adjoining Queens to Shelburne county, wind gusts ranging between 90-100 km/h are expected by Friday evening. Elsewhere, along the coast from Halifax to Yarmouth, peak wind gusts of 80 to 90km/h are expected. Winds should diminish through the day Saturday, as the low translates south-east.

At this point in time, it appears any heavy rainfall associated with this system will remain off shore.

Pounding surf, fierce waves & higher than usual water

Coastal communities expanding across Southern Nova Scotia from Halifax to Yarmouth (including Lunenburg), can expect wave heights between 5 and 6 meters Friday and Saturday. On Saturday morning, high waves and pounding surf are forecast to creep north – encompassing the remainder of the eastern Nova Scotia coastline. Higher than usual water levels are expected to coincide with high tide both Friday and Saturday, raising coastal flood concerns.

Environment Canada Issues Wind Warnings and Special Weather Statements ahead of the storm.

The weather agency noted on Thursday that “astronomical high tides will be running high during this period of elevated water levels adding to a risk of coastal flooding”.

For hourly and live storm updates around the clock, follow us on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TransCANWeather

Ontario

Above Seasonal and Abundant Sunshine for Southern Ontario


An area of high pressure south of the border is expected to move eastwards on Monday and cement its presence until Wednesday, thereby keeping tempestuous weather at bay.

Beginning Monday, February 26th, abundant sunshine is expected to spread and flourish across the entire region giving residents a “taste” of spring weather.

While temperatures on Monday are expected to reach the upper single-digits, on Tuesday and Wednesday, residents can welcome temperatures into the low-teens. On the contrary, temperatures will be sliced in half on Thursday and thereafter for the foreseeable future.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Monday.

High Temperatures for Southern Ontario on Tuesday [and Wednesday].

This short period of above seasonal temperatures are expected to cause further concern regarding relevant regions impacted by flooding. It is important to remain diligent and refrain from close presence near high rivers and fast-moving waters.

Now, get outside and lets welcome these temperatures together!

Ontario

Evacuation Ordered for Brantford, ON

A parade of weather systems in combination with several factors, including record warmth, frozen ground/snowmelt, and ice-jams, have led to flooding along riverside watersheds across Southern Ontario.

The City of Brantford has been hit especially hard this morning, where a State of Emergency has been issued.

Evacuation Order

City officials have issued Evacuation Orders for any street identified in the following floodplain: Foster, Cayuga, Aberdeen, Strathcona, Pontiac, Tecumseh, Ontario, Port, Eagle Ave, Robertson, Dover and Baldwin.

Residents are urged to evacuate these areas of the city until water levels recede and the Evacuation Order is lifted.

High Water Levels Across Much Of Southern Ontario

All communities along river-side watersheds and their tributaries throughout Southern Ontario, are urged to monitor local watches, warnings and statements from their local Conservation Authority. Flood warnings remain in affect for many watersheds who are dealing with flood conditions.

Flood Statements: https://www.ontario.ca/law-and-safety/flood-forecasting-and-warning-program

The flood concern is expected to peak early this afternoon (Wednesday), when cooler temperatures and drier air arrives. A brief period of freezing rain north of the GTA, will make efforts challenging for cleanup crews who are working tirelessly pumping water to ease residential flooding.

What Caused The Flooding?

A persistent High pressure ridge off the coast of Bermuda is responsible for channeling Gulf moisture and record warmth that led to this early “spring like” flooding event across Southern Ontario.