Friday will be act as the calm before the storm. A pleasant day with single digit highs, light winds, and some sunshine. Beginning after midnight rain will start in the Windsor area. With a mixed bag of precipitation spreading throughout Southern Ontario during the pre-dawn & morning hours.
A moisture laden system will slide towards the lower Great Lakes late this evening, following along a boundary separating cool air across Southern Ontario with warm air south of Lakes Erie & Ontario. Concurrently, an arctic cold front will be descending southwards heralding the arrival of deepening trough over Ontario & the Great Lakes region for Sunday. Temperatures will be running much below seasonal Sunday, daytime highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark. Additionally, Lake-effect flurries or snow is likely across the northwesterly snow-belts.
The challenging aspect of this system will be determining how the air-masses interact. In forecasting situations like this, thickness (a function of the average virtual temperature between 1000 and 500 millibars; read more: https://bit.ly/2WykrG4) can be useful in determining precipitation types. Anywhere, along and north of the blue line will likely see rain change to wet snow. With a brief period of freezing rain or ice pellets possible. South of the red lines will see mostly rain. These lines will move southwards as we progress through the day Saturday. Meaning areas who see mostly rain near Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, may end as wet snow as the system departs.
OKAY SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN – SNOW, RAIN, OR FREEZING RAIN?
Simply put, all of the above. Depending where in Southern Ontario or Quebec you reside.
The greatest threat for freezing rain will exist across the Ottawa and Montreal region. There’s potential for several hours of freezing rain for this area. And even a threat for appreciable accretion on untreated surfaces. The winds will be light, with temperatures teetering around freezing – largely mitigating any power outage threat.
Next, the snow. Any snow that falls will be wet, the greatest accumulations will be across the Dundalk and Haliburton highlands/highway 60. 10cm or more expected South of Georgian Bay. 10-20cm+ for the Haliburton Highlands. Across much of Southern Quebec – well north of Montreal. Mont-Tremblant National Park could see accumulations as high as 20-30cm. Highways 117, 309, and 105 will be snow covered and slick through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Finally, the rain. 20-40mm will fall along the lower Great Lakes. Including the GTA, Golden Horseshoe, Southwestern Ontario, & Eastern Ontario.
Don’t let the calendar fool you – a bitter sweet transition to spring is expected. The final two weeks of winter will feature drastic temperature swings and at least one notable storm system this weekend.
An area of low-pressure will form lee of the Rockies in Colorado Friday. Deepening as it tracks northeastwards through the United States towards the Great Lakes Region Saturday evening.
Key Details: 15-25mm of rain across deep Southwestern Ontario & North of Lake Erie. Rain combined with snow-melt may lead to localized flooding. 10-20cm of snow for Northern Ontario. Heaviest snow falling East of Lake Superior & across the Nickel Belt. Strong to damaging wind gusts for Southwestern & Central Ontario. A surge of warm air in Southern Ontario precedes wrap around strong winds & snow
SNOW FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO
Like many of the storms this season, this system will feature appreciable snow across Northern Ontario. A large swath of 10-15cm is forecast for Wawa, Timmins and Sudbury areas. Local amounts may approach 20cm.
MESSY WINDSTORM FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
First and foremost, this is a messy system for Southern Ontario. Precipitation will move into Windsor in deep Southwestern Ontario around 6pm Saturday. Progressing Northeastwards across Southern Ontario during the evening and overnight. Main concern for along the Lake Erie shoreline will be heavy downpours combined with warmer temperatures, snow melt, and runoff. Minor flooding is possible; stretching into the GTA. Be sure to monitor any statements from your local conservation authority, as we progress through the weekend.
Strong to damaging easterly winds will develop ahead of the storm Saturday evening & overnight. The strongest wind gusts are expected East of Lake Huron. Including Goderich, where peak winds could exceed 100km/h late Saturday evening & overnight. The rest of Southern Ontario will have to contend with strong easterly winds gusting 60-90km/h through the overnight into Sunday morning. Once again, winds will strengthen out of the West Sunday, with the passage of a cold front. Frequent gusts between 50-70km/h is expected.
Considering temperatures will be teetering around the freezing mark, precipitation may begin as snow, freezing rain or ice pellets. Especially, South of Georgian Bay where elevation and heavy precipitation rates will aide in keeping temperatures below freezing for a longer duration. For Eastern Ontario, this system will bring more wet snow than rain. Refer to our forecast map for further details.
Our forecasting team is vigilantly monitoring a powerful low-pressure system expected to form North of the Texas Panhandle late this evening. The upper-level disturbance originating out of California, will coincide with a favorable setup for an explosive storm development. Read more about Panhandle Hooks’ here.
Did you know? It was an infamous Panhandle Hook which sank the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975.
This storm will feature strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and shifting ice-conditions across the Great Lakes. Almost everyone in Eastern Canada will feel the effects of this powerful storm. Read more to gain insight on how this storm may impact you.
BLOCKBUSTER BLIZZARD EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
Our forecast team is closely monitoring a soon-to-be rapidly strengthening Panhandle Hook, sagging into the Texas Panhandle. Gathering abundant gulf moisture before trekking towards the Upper Great Lakes. The storm will experience the most intensification while tracking Northeastwards through the Upper Midwest (United States), towards Lake Superior & Northern Ontario. Coinciding with an expanding strong to damaging wind field.
Confidence is considerable for a high-impact Low for regions N and NE of Lake Superior with likely 30cm or more of blowing snow contingent with 60km/h+ wind gusts. The heaviest snowfall will likely be 30-40km inland from the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. This is bad news (or good new depending on your prerogative), when considering how much snow has already fallen across this region. Some are running out of places to even put the snow.
The fiercest winds will not correspond with the heaviest snowfall rates. Still, inland locales such as Timmins & Kapuskasing will still have to contend with extensive blowing & drifting snow. Especially, once the low tracks into Quebec, with colder air and stronger gusts arriving on the backside of the low.
There will be a line of mixing of wintry precipitation likely from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury to the QC border. Including a brief period of ice pellets and rain-showers.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
Temperatures will begin to surge above freezing across Southwestern Ontario, as early as, late Saturday evening. Double-digit temperatures & strong Southwesterly winds will advance throughout the Southern half of the Province throughout the morning & afternoon. Rain-showers and even a risk of elevated thunderstorms is expected. Proceeded by, a sharp cold front & plummeting temperatures.
We anticipate extensive blowing snow and poor-visibility East of Lake Huron late Sunday evening through Monday. Avoid all unnecessary travel in the red highlighted area on our wind impact map.
The supportive track and strength of the low will herald in a significant damaging wind threat across Southern Ontario. The strongest winds could peak as high as hurricane force (120km/h), along the Northeast shore of Lake Erie. We anticipate wind gusts over 100km/h across Prince Edward County, and East of Lake Huron. Peak wind gusts will likely reach or exceed 90km/h across the rest of Southern Ontario.
The sudden onset of warm air, rainfall, and extreme wind gusts will bring treacherous ice conditions across the Great Lakes. Ice shoves may be damaging to infrastructure along exposed shorelines. If you participate in winter activities such as, ice fishing or snowmobiling, it would be a good idea to remove your ice hut from the Great Lakes. Avoid snowmobiling until ice conditions improve.
A NEW COASTAL LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE MARITIMES
The powerful storm sweeps through Quebec on Sunday, and will subsequently phase into a strong ‘weather bomb’ south of Yarmouth. Potentially, deepening below 970mb (967-969mb).
While the exact phasing & extend of warm air advection is not entirely set-in-stone, it appears the heaviest swaths of snowfall will likely be off the Gaspe Peninsula shoreline and into the North Atlantic, thereby mitigating what could have been 2 or more feet of snow.
Southern New Brunswick will likely experience a rain/snow/wintry mix. With amounts totaling near 10cm. Amounts increasing to 20-30cm across the Northern extent of the Province. Pockets of heavier enhancement, accompanied by similar conditions is expected across Extreme Southern Newfoundland
Timing Western New Brunswick – Late Afternoon Sunday Most of New Brunswick – Sunday Evening Nova Scotia – Sunday Mid Evening PEI – Sunday Overnight Newfoundland – Monday
Hardest Hit Gaspe (35-45cm) Bathurst (25-35cm) Edmundston (30-35cm) Campbellton (30-35cm) Extreme Southern Shoreline of Newfoundland (25-40cm)
DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC
A major blizzard is on-tap for much of Northern Quebec. The worst of the treacherous conditions will be felt across the mouth of the Rupert River, Southeast of James Bay. Where rural communities can expect winds over 90km/h combined with 15-25cm of freshly fallen snow. Extensive blowing/drifting snow & near-zero visibility is expected. Isolated communities across Central & Northern Quebec may become cut-off, briefly.
A risk of freezing rain supersedes an early February warm-up. A temperature roller coaster with a risk of freezing rain will be the story this week across Southwestern Ontario.
Rainfall and above seasonal temperatures are the story this evening into the overnight. Rainfall ends before morning, with temperatures falling throughout the day.
Be mindful around streams and creeks Tuesday morning. As well as, on roadways, where standing water could lead to hydroplaning. Rainfall and snow-melt will lead to higher water levels. Stay tuned to your local Conservation Authority for the latest information.
A freezing rain risk develops by Wednesday morning. This may be an extended period of freezing drizzle & freezing rain for locales north of Lake Erie, including the 401/402 corridor. Local freezing rain accretion may approach or exceed 15mm. Ice pellets and patchy freezing drizzle will be the story for the rest of Southwestern and Central Ontario.
There will be two waves of precipitation. The second translates across the region Thursday along a developing low-pressure system. There is some uncertainty in regards to the evolution of this system. Current model guidance suggests a northerly track, leading to a surge in temperatures (above freezing) across Southern Ontario, Thursday. This would be a big snow maker across Northern Ontario & Quebec.
Sporadic power outages are anticipated across portions of Southwestern Ontario. A stiff northeasterly wind (aiding in low-level cold delivery), will be enhanced over Lake Ontario. Bringing wind gusts to 40km/h downwind of the lake. Sporadic power outages will begin throughout the evening. Peaking between 8pm-12am Wednesday. An extended period of freezing drizzle will succeed the initial wave of convective-driven freezing rain. For regions East of the Escarpment, through South Central Ontario & the Northern GTA this will be a primarily ice pellet event. Briefly beginning as snow, especially stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Northern sections of Central Ontario.
A Major Pattern reversal is underway across Western Canada. Cold air will descend from Northern Canada beginning Friday, coinciding with an extended period of heavy snowfall.
Our forecasting team will be closely monitoring the progression a major winter storm beginning Thursday evening. The Winter Storm isn’t expected to bring heavy snowfall rates, but rather an extended period of light-moderate snow over the next 48 hours.
The heaviest snowfall totals are expected through the Rockies; across British Columbia and Alberta. Where in excess of 50cm of snow is expected to fall. Even major cities, such as Edmonton won’t escape the wintry weather. With 30 or more centimeters projected to fall, over the next couple days.
Our forecasting team is tracking an overachieving Clipper system tracking through the Lower Great Lakes Overnight. Dissipating West to East through Sunday AM.
A quick burst of snow begins near midnight tonight, persisting through the pre-dawn hours (5-6am) Sunday morning. Generally, 3-8cm is expected. Due to the nature of clipper systems amounts will vary throughout the forecast area.
Wind gusts to 60-70km/h are expected along the north shore of Lake Erie (along the Niagara Peninsula), early Sunday morning. Watch for local blowing snow and poor travel in the area.
Exercise caution if you are travelling early Sunday morning. Since it is a weekend, little impact to transportation is anticipated.
Alberta Clippers are synonymous for bringing snowfall lee of the Canadian Rockies, during December and January. These typically moisture-starved systems are fast movers, ejecting quickly out of Alberta, through the Southern Prairies – towards the Great Lakes. Read more about Alberta Clippers here.
A clipper is expected to form
in Northern Alberta Saturday evening. Normally, these systems are more of a
nuisance, accompanied by low snowfall totals and quick forward motion. On the
contrary, this weekends system will flourish. Thanks to clashing temperatures
and abundant Pacific moisture.
Accumulations will vary greatly throughout the Prairies, bearing in mind the heaviest snow will fall along a narrow swath. Current guidance suggests close to 15cm across the northern extent of the darker shaded region (in our forecast map). Including, Northern & Central Alberta. The heaviest snow (~20cm) will fall across Extreme Southwest Manitoba and Southeast Saskatchewan. *Model guidance has increased snowfall totals further into Southwestern Manitoba, where Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings. Several warnings now stretch across parts of Prairies.
There will be another swath of snow tracking down the Rockies, bringing 10-20cm. It looks like Calgary will be limited to less than 5cm through Friday. By Saturday, a steep contrast in temperature envelopes the Prairies. Calgary will see a high of 9c and sunshine. Whereas, Eastern Saskatchewan will still be below freezing.
STRONG WINDS & BLOWING SNOW
Winds pickup between the
Grande Prairie – Whitecourt corridor early Saturday evening. Winds sustained at
or over 30km/h, gusting 60-80km/h. Gusty winds will overspread much of Alberta and
Southern Saskatchewan overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. The strongest
wind gusts aren’t expected to coincide with the heaviest swath of snow. Still,
freshly fallen snowfall, which is dry and light – will combine with gusty winds.
Bringing local blowing and drifting snow. Stay tuned to weather advisories, or
statements pertaining to any potential road closures.
Winter returns to the Great Lakes, after an extended lull in activity and cold air between December and early January. Find out where, and, how bad the ‘next one’ will be.
An area of low-pressure tracks through Illinois late this evening. Tracking through Michigan & Northeast Ontario by Wednesday afternoon & evening. Precipitation begins as snow across Central, Northeastern, and much of Southwestern Ontario Tuesday evening.
Freezing rain and ice pellets begin after 9pm across the Windsor – Sarnia corridor. Changing to rain, with little impact. Freezing rain spreads north of Lake Erie through the overnight. 3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected before changing over to rain.
continues across much of Central, Southwestern, and Eastern Ontario overnight
into Wednesday morning. A lull in snow develops across the 400 corridor near
7am. Lowering snowfall totals across Southern Simcoe county; risk of freezing
South of the 401/402 changes over to all rain during the early morning. Freezing rain continues along the escarpment (West of Lake Ontario). A changeover to rain continues North & East throughout the afternoon, proceeded by brief freezing rain.
Snow continues North of Lake Simcoe and North of Ottawa through the afternoon. A extended period (5-8 hours) of freezing rain develops Wednesday afternoon in Montreal, after a period of snow. Conditions will be hazardous in the City.
A primarily snow event
stretching from Bruce and Huron county’s through Georgian Bay. Also, putting
parts of Eastern and Northeastern Ontario in a swath of 15-25cm. Little
accumulation north of Lake Erie, but watch for icing with the potential of
5-8mm of accretion before the changeover to rain. 2-4cm of snow across the GTA,
with brief freezing rain. A larger swath of 5-10cm of snow is expected across
the light blue shaded area on our forecast map.
A classic fall windstorm will track through the Great Lakes Tuesday, bringing strong winds, snow, and rain across Ontario.
A compact area of low-pressure is forecast to deepen overnight Monday, as it tracks through Michigan. Bringing strong wind & rain across Southern Ontario. Concurrently, bringing snow to Northwestern Ontario.
SOUTHERN ONTARIO: STRONG WINDS & RAIN SHOWERS
By Tuesday morning, rain showers will become more numerous as a large area of precipitation moves north from the United States. 5-15mm of rainfall in the morning, preceded by sunny breaks across South Central & Southwestern Ontario by the early/mid afternoon. Temperatures will likely spike into the low teens by the afternoon.
Winds will become stronger throughout the late morning. Becoming the strongest through the afternoon and evening. Widespread wind gusts between 60-80km/h is expected through the afternoon/evening Tuesday. The strongest winds, potentially exceeding 90km/h, are possible in the Niagara Region, Prince Edward, Bruce & Grey Counties.
The strong winds will likely strip many of the remaining leaves from trees. Remember to clean fallen leaves from storm drains.
While the South contends with wind & rain, Northwestern Ontario will see snowfall. The heaviest snowfall is expected across far-Northwestern Ontario. Another area of snowfall is expected northwest of Thunder Bay. General amounts between 5-10cms is expected Tuesday.
Much colder air with light-snow, is expected for Thunder Bay through Wednesday & Thursday.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ON THE HORIZON
The warm up will be short-lived. The coldest air of the season, accompanied by lake effect snow arrives this weekend. Daily low temperatures will become consistently negative beyond Friday, November 9th across Southern Ontario. With daytime highs around the freezing mark for several days. Lake effect snow will really begin to ramp up beginning late week.