Author: Troy Boone

Ontario

Fall Windstorm Targets Great Lakes Tuesday

A classic fall windstorm will track through the Great Lakes Tuesday, bringing strong winds, snow, and rain across Ontario.

A compact area of low-pressure is forecast to deepen overnight Monday, as it tracks through Michigan. Bringing strong wind & rain across Southern Ontario. Concurrently, bringing snow to Northwestern Ontario.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO: STRONG WINDS & RAIN SHOWERS

By Tuesday morning, rain showers will become more numerous as a large area of precipitation moves north from the United States. 5-15mm of rainfall in the morning, preceded by sunny breaks across South Central & Southwestern Ontario by the early/mid afternoon. Temperatures will likely spike into the low teens by the afternoon.

Winds will become stronger throughout the late morning. Becoming the strongest through the afternoon and evening. Widespread wind gusts between 60-80km/h is expected through the afternoon/evening Tuesday. The strongest winds, potentially exceeding 90km/h, are possible in the Niagara Region, Prince Edward, Bruce & Grey Counties.

Projected wind gusts Tuesday 4pm EST. Wind speeds are in knots. 1 knot=1.85km/h.

The strong winds will likely strip many of the remaining leaves from trees. Remember to clean fallen leaves from storm drains.

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

While the South contends with wind & rain, Northwestern Ontario will see snowfall. The heaviest snowfall is expected across far-Northwestern Ontario. Another area of snowfall is expected northwest of Thunder Bay. General amounts between 5-10cms is expected Tuesday.

Much colder air with light-snow, is expected for Thunder Bay through Wednesday & Thursday.

Snowfall projections for Northwestern Ontario through Tuesday.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ON THE HORIZON

The warm up will be short-lived. The coldest air of the season, accompanied by lake effect snow arrives this weekend. Daily low temperatures will become consistently negative beyond Friday, November 9th across Southern Ontario. With daytime highs around the freezing mark for several days. Lake effect snow will really begin to ramp up beginning late week. 

New Brunswick

Mixed Precipitation for Eastern Canada & First Appreciable Snowfall…

A system developing in the Southeastern United States will track up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, becoming a weather story across Eastern Canada.

SYNOPSIS:

A developing coastal system will bring a wintery mix across Southern Ontario, Quebec, and Northern New Brunswick. 

A boundary will form in Southern Ontario between a cold & dry high-pressure system, and moist air arriving from the Southeast. Colder air will overspread Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec Saturday, owing to a cold Northeasterly wind. Concurrently, a large area of precipitation will push north into Southern Quebec and Southern Ontario.

Snow, mixing, rain and freezing rain is expected from Saturday morning to Sunday evening. Flurries will continue through Monday.

Across, Nova Scotia, PEI and much of New Brunswick will see primarily rain. Although, Northern New Brunswick could remain as a mix or snow depending on the track of the developing system.

WPC forecasted fronts & precipitation types. Valid Friday evening.

SOUTHERN ONTARIO:

Many residents East of Highway 6 and across the GTA have started the day with moderate wet snow.

A cold northeasterly wind will reinforce colder air by Saturday evening. Mixing or rain-showers will transition into a wintery mix of wet snow & ice pellets east of Highway 6, along/north of highway 407/7. Continuing through much of Central and Eastern Ontario (away from the lake shore). A few wet centimetres is possible. Especially for municipalities at higher elevation South and East of Georgian Bay. Please plan accordingly, as conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday.

MARITIMES: Strong Winds & Heavy Rainfall

This system will be a rain and wind story across much of the Maritimes. The strongest winds, with gusts between 80-90km/h, will be located across the Bay of Fundy. Elsewhere winds across much of Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick are expected to be gusting between 50-70km/h Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts between 20-50mm is expected by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rain falling in Southern New Brunswick and coastal Nova Scotia. Across Northern New Brunswick, a period of snow and mixing may persist into the overnight. 

Forecast precipitation type & accumulation.

QUEBEC:

Flurries will begin north of the St. Lawrence Saturday evening. Montreal, and the Eastern Townships will likely changeover to rain late Saturday evening/overnight, with the arrival of warmer air. 

For regions north of the St. Lawrence, this will be a snow and ice story. Stay tuned to further forecasts Saturday night through Sunday morning, this region could see a 5-8 hour window for freezing rain.

Model depiction showing precipitation types late-evening Saturday, continuing overnight.


Ontario

Reinforcing Cold Shot & Wet Snow Risk for Southern…

A frosty Saturday night ahead across much of Southern Ontario. Pleasant conditions Sunday, give way to a pair of clipper systems to start the work week. 

It will be a cool and frosty Sunday morning across Southern Ontario. Sunny conditions, and light southwesterly winds, will allow temperatures to rebound in the afternoon.  The first of two clipper systems brings rain showers (beginning) Monday morning. Dreary and cool conditions continue through the afternoon. 

Frost advisory issued by Environment Canada Saturday night.

First Shot of Lake Effect Snow?

A clipper system will track through the Great Lakes late Tuesday through Wednesday. The passage of the low will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cold and dry air. Lake effect rainfall may bring graupel or hail to some locales in Central Ontario (Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning). Owing to, instability, and seasonably cold air building aloft.

Lake effect rainfall bands will transition to wet snowfall Wednesday night, Southeast of Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay.

A few wet centimetres may accumulate through Wednesday night. Especially across higher elevations. 

Seasonably cool air 1.5km above the surface, will support lake effect snow. Abundant dry air, warm ground temperatures, and a building area of high pressure, should mitigate any risk of significant accumulation. We will monitor the risk over the coming days. 

Ontario

Winter Reminder: Lake Effect Rain Showers across The Great…

Colder air is beginning it’s decent across Southern & Central Ontario. Gusty winds this evening gives-way to Lake Effect rainfall Thursday night through Friday. First ‘bout of the season serves as a reminder that winter is coming.     

Inland sections surrounding Agawa Bay to Montreal River Harbour will see Lake Effect rainfall beginning this evening. A transition to mixing or large flakes of wet snow is anticipated during the early morning hours Friday.     Location: East of Lake Superior.

Accumulating snow will develop in Lake Effect bands near Wawa Friday night through Saturday.

Lake Effect model simulation for early Friday morning. Animation curtesy of Weather Bell Analytics

Southern Ontario

Lake effect rainbands will setup tonight southwest of Georgian Bay and East of Lake huron. Owen Sound to Barrie to Orillia will be in for a chilly wet reminder that winter is coming. With rainfall bands meandering through the area.

Fairweather waterspouts are possible late Friday over Lakes Erie and Ontario, given the cold air aloft.

Uncategorised

How: Variable Weather Can Affect Your Vehicle

The winter possesses a unique set of challenges for drivers. Snow, rain and ice often coalesce into a challenging drive for commuters. Vehicle tires undergo tremendous stress during changing weather conditions. During periods of extreme temperature fluctuations (up or down), tire pressure can fluctuate enough to signal-on the tire pressure light in newer vehicles. Additionally, incorrect tire pressure can lower fuel economy, make a vehicle more susceptible to damage from potholes, impact vehicle handling, and cause tires to wear quickly and/or unevenly.

ALTERNATING TIRE PRESSURE

Changing weather conditions attributes to the measurement of pressure in your tires. Hot weather or a long road trip will increase tire pressure. However, very cold weather can cause your tire pressure to deviate from the recommended inflation pressure, activating the TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System)* in newer vehicles. Most TPMS monitor under-inflation as it poses a greater risk while driving. Tires will wear unevenly on the inner or outer most edges of the tire. An under-inflated tire is not only noisier, it creates more frictional heat, and, therefore, more prone to blowouts. Furthermore, an under-inflated tire can cause costly damage to your vehicle during the pot-hole season. The tire will have difficulty absorbing the impact from potholes which can cause damage to rims, or worse.

Source: DriveSure.com

Tire pressure changes while sitting overnight or during a long commute to work. Pressure can change by up to 5-psi from a 20-30 minute drive vs when parked overnight. Additionally, if the outside air temperature decreases by 5.5 degrees Celsius, the tire pressure will fall 1-psi. Conversely, if the air temperature increases 5.5 degrees Celsius, the tire pressure will rise by 1-psi.

It is recommended to check tire pressure at least once a month for all tires on your vehicle. It is important to note that you should only add or release air from your tires, after your vehicle has been sitting for several hours.

*Many newer vehicles (beyond 2008) have a tire pressure sensor that constantly measures the inflation of each tire.

TIRE PRESSURE & FUEL ECONOMY

Generally, the acceptable tire pressure range is between 30-35 PSI. Automotive manufacturers have different pressure specifications, designed to provide the maximum performance based on the vehicle. Refer to the gas tank cover or drivers-side door panel to find a vehicles recommended tire pressure. On the side-wall of a vehicle tire, the maximum allowed pressure is shown. It’s important to note this number is the maximum pressure the tire can operate at during full load. This number is not the pressure rating your tire should be inflated to.

Fuel economy will be impacted by improper tire inflation. The U.S. Department of Energy says that for every 1-psi drop in pressure, you can expect your gas mileage to lower by 0.4 percent. Inflating a tire beyond what is recommended from the vehicle manufacturer can improve fuel economy. Doing so can sacrifice handling and comfort; the vehicle will ride harshly over imperfections in the road. Additionally, the center thread of tire will wear quicker.

TIP: before towing a trailer, or a load of people add a couple PSI to the back wheels. Refer to your vehicle to see the recommended “at load” pressure.

CHECKING TIRE PRESSURE

Pick-up a standard or digital tire pressure gauge. In the morning, or before a long drive remove the cap from valve stem. Measure the PSI of pressure by firmly pushing the gauge to the vale stem. Ensure there is no air leak between the nipple and gauge to collect an accurate reading.

References:

https://www.tirebuyer.com/education/tire-inflation-pressure-and-temperature
https://www.cartalk.com/content/summer-driving-tips-6
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/you-can-blame-the-weather-on-t/41518
Manitoba

Tale of Two Seasons: Heavy Snow, Rain, & Summer…

An area of low pressure will strengthen as it tracks through the Upper Midwestern United States. Bringing accumulating snow and gusty winds across Northwestern Ontario. Summer-like heat & humdity returns to Southern Ontario.

TIMING & ACCUMULATIONS 

Snow flurries will begin mixing in along Highway 17 late Wednesday evening. With wet snow falling by Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, anywhere along and south of Highway 11 will likely be seeing rain. 

North of Lake Superior, precipitation will fall as a cold rain with gusty winds. Including the Thunder Bay area, where cold rain and gusty winds will lead to a miserable day. 

Projected snowfall divisible by Postal Code. 
PostalCast©: NW. ON SNOWSTORM – Wednesday through Thursday
— MOST Impacted Locales (Based on First 3 Digits of a Postal Code) —
P0L (10-15cm for Southern Regions; 15-25cm for Northern)
P0T (<5cm near Superior; 25-30cm+ for Northern Regions)
P0V (<5cm for Northern Regions; 15-25cm for Southern)
P0W (10-15cm)
P0X (15-20cm)
P0Y (15-20cm)
P8N (20-25cm+)
P8T (20-25cm+)
P9A (8-15cm)
P9N (10-20cm)

By Wednesday afternoon or late evening, cold air will wrap around the deepening system. Heavy snowfall will begin accumulating in a line from Kenora to Dryden to Sioux Lookout to Pickle Lake. Continuing into extreme Southeastern Manitoba. Moderate to heavy snowfall and gusty winds will persist, increasing in coverage across Northwestern Ontario through the day Thursday. 

Projected amounts are subject to change based on the track & timing of the low + Hurricane Michael. Current guidance suggests a large swath of 20-30cm. 30-40cm could fall locally.

Preliminary snowfall projections will be updated throughout the week.

Actual accumulations will be largely dependant upon key factors: track of the low, temperature, and snowfall ratios. Moisture won’t be an issue with tropical moisture from Hurricane Michael. 

HEAVY RAINFALL 

While Northwestern Ontario deals with heavy snow, Northeastern Ontario will be dealing with heavy rainfall. A large swath of 50-75mm is expected East of Lake Superior. 

THE TALE OF TWO SEASONS 

As Northern Ontario deals with heavy rain and snow, Southern Ontario will get one last blast of summer. Temperatures Wednesday will likely be soaring into the mid or high-20s. With abundant humidity making it feel into the 30s. Forecast temperature & humidity readings will challenge all-time October records Tuesday and Wednesday.

Uncategorised

BREAKING: HURRICANE MICHAEL Major Impact on US Southeast

Tropical storm Michael is currently on a NNW trajectory off the Yucatan Peninsula. Michael is expected to strengthen throughout early next week.

Rapid intensification before landfall is possible given key factors:

1. The compact size of the storm.                                   2. Little shear along the forecast track.                      3. 30c Sea Surface Temperatures.

Projected landfall from the National Hurricane Center.

Land fall as a strong Category 2 hurricane is possible near Eastpoint, Florida. Dangerous Flash flooding with 200-350mm of rainfall is possible in the Tallahassee area. Coastal storm surge and wind gusts upwards of 170-200km/h are possible.

Georgia, and unfortunately, South Carolina will also see significant rainfall and winds gusting over 100km/h based on current model guidance.

Manitoba

More Snow to End the Work Week Across the…

A weak system stateside brings another round of snow for Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba Friday.

Wet snow and mixing will begin overnight tonight along the international border. Conditions will quickly deteriorate with accumulating snow beginning early Friday morning.

Weather Model depiction shows light to moderate snowfall at 6am, Friday morning.

Light to moderate snowfall will continue into the the afternoon.

Weather model depiction showing wet snowfall continuing into the afternoon.

Snowfall accumulations between 5-15cm is expected. Winnipeg will be on the mixing line between rain and wet snow by the afternoon. 2-4cm is possible.

UPDATE: the 4-8cm swath may encompass municipalities further North and East in Manitoba. With warmer temperatures, actual ground accumulation will lead to trace amounts.

Projected snowfall totals through Friday.

Prepare for an extended commute and winter travel conditions Friday. 

Ontario

Stormy Evening & Overnight for Northeastern Ontario

Heavy showers & thunderstorms beginning this afternoon in Sudbury and Algoma District. Continuing through the overnight.

An area of low pressure will rapidly intensify as it tracks through Northern Ontario towards James Bay. A sharp cold front will trigger heavy rainfall and thunderstorms today and tonight across Northeastern Ontario.

THREATS

The primary threat will be torrential rainfall leading to minor flooding. Additionally, small hail and locally strong winds are possible in stronger thunderstorms.

NAM model rainfall projection for Wednesday into Thursday.

Rainfall totals in the range of 30-60mm is expected north of Manitoulin Island & East of Lake Superior.

Thunderstorm Outlook from Environment Canada

Manitoba

Early Fall Snowfall Strikes Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Tricky driving associated with an early taste of winter across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba.

Snow begins today in Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, persisting into Wednesday across Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario.

SYNOPSIS:

A boundary separating cold and warm air will descend Southwards across Southern Saskatchewan & Southern Manitoba through Tuesday allowing temperatures to dip near the freezing mark. A drop in temperatures near freezing or just below is expected along a narrow band of light-moderate snow developing across the Southern Prairies. Concurrently, an area of low pressure will strengthen through Wednesday, as it tracks out of Montana into the Dakotas. 

A narrow band of snowfall situated across Western Saskatchewan will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the evening, spreading across all of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight. Continuing across a narrow corridor of Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario Wednesday.

This will be wet snow event for southwestern Manitoba (including Brandon). Light tree damage due to heavy-wet snow is possible Wednesday. 

EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS:

5-15cm is expected across a narrow swath from Extreme Southern Saskatchewan through Southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will see a cold rain, changing over to wet snow. Timing of the changeover to wet snow is leading to uncertainty, regarding accumulation.

Higher elevation in the Parklands Region, may see higher accumulations near, or exceeding 20cm. Including Riding Mountain National Park and the Dauphin area.