Our forecasting team at TransCanada Weather is cautiously watching long range model guidance. Between Tuesday May 28th – Thursday, June 6th, the evolution of a pattern supportive of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms & unsettled conditions will envelop parts of Canada. Read below to find out where.
PRAIRIES: Unsettled Conditions, Risk of Cold Core Funnels, Threat of Thunderstorms
The Prairies will have to contend with unsettled conditions. Including a pattern that may support the risk of cold core funnel clouds & areas of severe thunderstorms between late May to early June. This is be welcomed news for Alberta; contending with out-of-control forest fires.
GREAT LAKES: Heavy Rain & Severe Thunderstorms
A second area we are watching closely: the Great Lakes/Ontario region. A supportive pattern for flooding and/or severe thunderstorms is possible between Tuesday May 28th to Thursday May 30th.
Abnormally, deep troughing, seasonably deep height-falls, strong waves of low-pressure, concurrent with a southeast ridge. Will bring surges of warm moist air along with supportive wind profiles for severe thunderstorms and/or flood risk. A significant severe day will be possible within this regime across Southern or Northeastern Ontario.
Saturday, May 25th: after Thursday, the next threat for severe across Southern Ontario will come Saturday. Risks across Southwestern Ontario include: isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail & torrential downpours.
Additional considerations: drought conditions in the Southeastern US allowing mid-level dry/warm air to migrate north within stronger circulations. Abnormally-wet southern plains, increasing low-level moisture transport/PWAT values in stronger 850mb flows.