[UPDATED] A strong fall-like system will track across Ontario and Quebec Friday, bringing a risk of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and a pattern change is expected. Find out where.
Through the day Thursday, an area of low-pressure will deepen as it tracks from the Midwest into Northeastern Ontario, Friday morning. The low will mature as it tracks into Quebec by Friday afternoon.
A warm front, associated with the seasonably-deep low will push north across Ontario and Quebec Thursday morning into Friday. Concurrently, temperatures will soar into the high-20s Friday afternoon across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec (near the border). Increasing dew-points will lead to muggy conditions feeling into the mid-30s.
Instability, very-strong upper-level winds, wind-shear, and marginal energy will lead to severe thunderstorms Friday. Ahead of a vigorous cold front, and strong upper-level trough where heights will be falling.
RISK & COVERAGE
The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms in Ontario will stretch from Central Ontario to Eastern Ontario. Coverage will be more isolated in Ontario than Quebec. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Upscale growth into a squall-line bringing straight-line winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning is possible.
In Quebec, atmospheric energy & cooler temperatures will be less favorable than Southern Ontario, but better forcing, shear, and instability will lead to isolated-severe thunderstorms. Risks include damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. This will include the risk of supercells. The strongest risk will largely affect rural, unpopulated municipalities.
WIND & HEAVY RAINFALL
Regardless of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will be strong across Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec with this fall-like system. Widespread gusts between 50-80km is expected across a large swath of Ontario and Quebec, preceding the cold front and after its passage.
UPDATE: latest model guidance is suggesting that localized wind gusts of 90-100km will impact Ontario and much of Quebec.
30-50mm of rainfall is expected along a swath East of Lake Superior through Northeastern Ontario.
PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL
The passage of the cold front will usher is much cooler and drier conditions by Friday night. Temperatures will struggle to get into the mid-teens by the weekend. A hard freeze is looking probable across Northern Quebec and Northern Ontario.