Isolated severe thunderstorms expected today (Sunday, June 10th) in Saskatchewan & Manitoba.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central and Eastern Saskatchewan beginning by the mid-afternoon and persisting well into the evening hours in Western Manitoba.
We have highlighted an area in orange where the greatest risk develops. Regions is yellow can expect primarily non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Note: this risk continues into Western Manitoba.
Risk factors associated with these thunderstorms include: large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.
Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected for Monday.
A surface low will decent across Southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning Sunday. The first low has led to rain and heavy thunderstorms in Southwestern areas of the province early this morning. At the same time, a secondary low pressure center/vort max will be deepening as it approaches Western Saskatchewan during the afternoon. A trough in the Jet-stream will be progressing Eastwards across Saskatchewan during the period.
A eastward progressing front associated with the deepening low-pressure system, will act as a trigger from the mid-afternoon through the late evening – across Central and Eastern Saskatchewan.
Deep moisture transport aided by a 30-40kt low-level Jet out of the Southeast will result in dew-points in the high teens. Concurrently, temperatures will likely rise into the high 20s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will likely build above 2000 J/KG across the warm sector, providing plentiful energy for strong thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft (a “cap”) will have to erode before storms can erupt – perhaps after peak energy.
Marginal wind shear and helicity readings, little veering with height, and a high LCL is expected to limited any tornado activity despite a south-easterly surface wind. The south-easterly flow and storm mode/track may allow for “training” – which heightens the threat for localized flooding.
Environment Canada (PASPC) has issued a map highlighting Southeastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba in a “moderate” risk for severe thunderstorms. Primary hazards include: 110km/h wind-gusts and 3-5cm hail. NOTE: these maps are still in the experimental stage.
Near the low center (which is expected to exist in the North Battleford corridor), a soaking rainfall and heavy thunderstorms is expected. This activity should remain non-severe. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are expected.
The risk for severe thunderstorms continues Eastwards into Manitoba. Reloading again, for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario on Monday.
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