Through the overnight Monday, an arctic front will descend south coalescing with a strengthening area of low-pressure tracking through the Midwest United States. Temperatures will be falling across Northeastern Ontario, the Nickel Belt, Manitoulin Island, and, the Bruce Peninsula with the passage of the cold front. Light snowfall will begin in the aforementioned regions overnight Monday into Tuesday. Continuing through the day Tuesday – lasting into Wednesday. Total accumulation will range from 15-25cm by Wednesday evening.
Tuesday Thunderstorm and Rainfall Risk: Southwestern Ontario
An associated warm front looks to be staying south of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon, lessening the arrival of a warmer airmass into extreme Southwestern Ontario. Nevertheless, the track of the low will bring rainfall and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday evening. Primary threats include embedded heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 60-80km/h.
A cloudy and wet day is expected cross Southern Ontario. Generally, 15-25mm of rainfall is expected across a large swath of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Locally higher amounts of 20-40mm is expected in extreme Southwest Ontario (with local thunderstorms) and a parts of Eastern Ontario.
The strengthening area of low-pressure will continue on a north-east trajectory towards Quebec Wednesday. The passage of the low will be accompanied by colder air and powerful wind gusts across Southern Ontario. Gusts between 70-90km are expected Wednesday.
Residual snowfall will continue in parts of Northeast Ontario. Some Lake effect flurries may impact the snow-belts.
What’s to come?
Cold temperatures will continue through the first week of April, with continuing below seasonal temperatures through the 2nd and 3rd week of April. There is some confidence continued snow-systems will embed themselves across the region, with the potential for snow reaching as far south as the 401 corridor.
When will the cold relinquish?
As recently predicted and outlined in our Spring/Summer forecast, it is [and we expect] Spring to be relatively cool across much of Eastern Canada with above normal precipitation. However, we do believe more moderating temperatures will begin to enter the Eastern half of the country beginning very late April, and more prominently into early May.
Please stay tuned, as we at TCW are monitoring this situation attentively.
Drive safe and always be alert during winter conditions.
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